#SecurityScan 88: Bengal Post-Poll Violence, Deterring China's Military Violence & Security of the Red sea

This article is a summary of important events that have taken place in last one week affecting, India's national security.

Countering Internal & External Security Challenges

The State of India’s Coastal Security

In recent years, India's maritime boundaries have been influenced by China's expanding presence in the Indian Ocean and rising threats from non-traditional maritime security challenges. These developments have increased the relevance of the Indian Coast Guard, prompting renewed policy focus on coastal security.

Rising Challenges and Response

The increase in illegal fishing along India’s coast and a drone attack on an oil tanker in the Arabian Sea in December 2023 have highlighted the need for enhanced coastal security measures.

Assessing Preparedness

What is the current state of India’s coastal security preparedness? We should explore how the role of the Indian Coast Guard has evolved in response to new maritime threats and strategic shifts and focus on the integration of emerging technologies in shaping India’s coastal security challenges.

Integrating Civilian Issues and Interests

An important aspect will be whether India’s understanding of coastal security includes civilian issues and interests. The intersection of coastal security threats with broader strategic security challenges in India’s maritime neighborhood should also be analyzed. A comprehensive evaluation of India’s coastal security preparedness, considering both traditional and non-traditional maritime threats is required.

Bengal Post-Poll Violence: Why Isn't Home Minister Taking action against West Bengal Govt?

Persistent Violence in Bengal

The ongoing post-poll violence in Bengal remains a grim reality. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) workers and supporters are frequently targeted, attacked, and even killed by Trinamool Congress (TMC) goons after each election. Families of the deceased mourn silently, while the injured and displaced face severe hardships, often having to pay fines to local TMC leaders to return home. This cycle of violence has persisted since the Left Front rule in the state, with the Congress and TMC being previous victims. The TMC has surpassed the Left Front in perpetrating violence against political opponents.

Lack of Support from BJP Leadership

The BJP leadership's inaction in protecting party workers and supporters from TMC's wrath and failing to hold the Banerjee government accountable has been surprising. Despite the widespread brutality, the BJP's central and state leaders have largely confined their responses to social media condemnations. Very few leaders have actively supported beleaguered karyakartas on the ground, particularly in rural and semi-urban areas.

Ineffective Legal Measures

The BJP's central leadership has emphasized a legal approach to counter TMC's barbarism, filing cases and petitions seeking intervention from the courts and the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC). However, the legal route is long, expensive, and often ineffective, with bodies like the NHRC unable to take direct action against the state government. This approach has been inadequate.

Senior BJP leaders and workers have expressed frustration with the party's central leadership. After BJP worker Abhijit Sarkar was killed by TMC goons, BJP president J P Nadda's response was seen as weak..

Calls for Stronger Action

Many BJP workers and functionaries have called for a tougher stance against the TMC. They argue that the central leadership's failure to act decisively has demoralized the party's cadres and supporters. This demoralization has affected the BJP's performance, as the lack of ground support has made it difficult to counter TMC's rigging and muscle power during elections. Continued inaction will lead to the BJP's decline in Bengal.

Possible Measures Against TMC

Some BJP leaders have suggested that Home Minister Amit Shah should issue a direct warning to Mamata Banerjee, threatening strong counter-actions if violence against BJP workers continues. This could include the imposition of Article 355, which would allow the Union government to take direct control of law and order in the state. They believe that such a warning, would have an immediate effect on curbing the violence. Without such decisive action, the Hindu prospects in Bengal, look bleak.

#COUNTERING CHINESE MULTI DOMAIN , GREY ZONE, HIGH BREED WARFARE.

Rare Earths vs. Rarer Resources: Navigating Geopolitical Influence

Misconceptions about Rare Earths

Rare earth elements (REEs), encompassing 17 distinct elements, are not genuinely scarce despite their name. The real rarity lies in the low-cost, low-pollution processing capacity for these elements. According to the International Energy Agency, China holds 33.8% of the world's rare earth reserves as of 2022, but it controls nearly 70% of upstream mining and extraction, almost 90% of midstream processing and refining, and at least 50% of downstream applications. These applications span crucial sectors like electronics, electric vehicles, and renewable energy technologies.

Strategic Importance and Dependency

Though required in minimal quantities, rare earth elements are vital for numerous industrial and defense applications. China's dominance in the rare earth supply chain has raised significant concerns. "3,400 American weapons systems contain Chinese rare earth components," highlighting the strategic vulnerability posed by this dependency.

Multinational Countermeasures

In response to China's dominance, multinational partnerships are emerging to mitigate its influence. Australia's recent divestment decision reflects its alignment with global allies, aiming to reduce reliance on Chinese rare earths. These collaborative efforts are based on the fact that China will leverage its control over the rare earth supply chain to gain geopolitical advantages.

Australia's Strategic Opportunity

For Australia to capitalize on its innovation capabilities, it should focus on becoming an indispensable technology partner in advanced minerals processing and refining technologies—referred to as the rarer resources. This strategic shift would position Australia advantageously within the global value chain, moving beyond merely scaling up extraction and manufacturing.

Conclusion

While rare earth elements are not inherently scarce, the processing capabilities for these materials are limited and geopolitically significant. As global powers seek to counterbalance China's dominance, strategic partnerships will reduce dependency on Chinese rare earth elements.

Deterring China's Military Violence Against Australians/world

The Need for Pre-emptive Clarity

In light of increasing Chinese military actions in the grey zone, the possibility of serious injury or death of Australian military personnel in South Chiana sea is serious. The Australian government must not only express concern but also prepare a clear response strategy.

Australia's relationship with China holds significant importance, necessitating a measured and prudent response in any potential conflict scenario. Effective deterrence requires that China understands the potential consequences of its actions, moving beyond verbal rebukes to demonstrate Australia's commitment to protecting its personnel and interests.

Communicating Deterrence to China

To deter China effectively, the Australian government must ensure that both the Chinese government and military are fully aware of the potential Australian responses to aggressive actions.

Given the growing threats from China's grey zone activities, Australia must clearly outline its response options and communicate them effectively to deter further aggression. Ensuring that China understands the serious repercussions of harming Australian personnel is crucial for maintaining stability and safeguarding Australia's national interests.

Taiwan Should allow non-citizens to join its military

Enhancing Recruitment Through Overseas Citizens

As Taiwan prepares for a potential conflict with Beijing, it faces the challenge of a shrinking recruitment pool. A strategic solution could be found by adopting a measure similar to Australia's, which has recently relaxed its recruitment criteria to allow non-citizens to join its military. This initiative could significantly bolster Taiwan’s defense capabilities.

Australia’s Innovative Approach

This measure is part of a broader strategy to counter China’s growing influence in the region. By allowing permanent residents, starting with New Zealanders and extending to citizens of the UK, US, Canada, and the Pacific Islands, to join its military, Australia is taking proactive steps to strengthen its defense.

Taiwan- Learning from Australia’s Assessment

Currently, only citizens are permitted to serve in Taiwan’s military, although the rules can apply to those born in Taiwan or who have ever held a Taiwan passport, even if they are dual citizens. While concerns over espionage are valid, Taiwan could benefit from examining Australia’s approach. Given the direct threat from Beijing, expanding military eligibility to include overseas citizens could provide a crucial boost to Taiwan’s defense readiness.

A major government report on Australia’s military readiness revealed that its 57,000-member force was not “fit for purpose” in the current geopolitical climate. This assessment prompted the decision to expand recruitment criteria. Taiwan, facing similar geopolitical tensions, should consider a comparable strategy to ensure its military is adequately prepared for any potential conflict with China

Algorithmic Warfare: AI Could Shape the Future of Deterrence

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are revolutionizing national security and crisis management. We must explore the future of deterrence and the critical role of human judgment within an AI-centric crisis simulation.

The Imperative for Debate

The integration of AI/ML capabilities in national security is poised to grow significantly in the coming years. This necessitates a robust debate on the extent and manner in which information technology should augment strategic and military decision-making. The stakes are too high for a blind march into the future, underscoring the need for thoughtful and informed discourse.

Integrating AI/ML into Modern Battle Networks

The national security community must expedite experimentation with AI/ML integration into modern battle networks. This involves not only optimizing joint targeting and enhancing the speed at which the military can sense, interpret, and respond but also rethinking traditional military staff organizations and legacy national security planning processes. The focus should be on supporting human decision-making amidst a deluge of information characterized by uncertainty, fog, and friction.

Balancing Stability and Risk

The AI/ML has the potential to both stabilize and destabilize warfare. There is a risk that nuclear states could inadvertently program their way to catastrophic outcomes. Thus, it is crucial to challenge the findings and recognize the study's limitations. Observations remain limited and may be influenced by factors such as age, gender, and the type of national security experience of participants. Future efforts should broaden the range of participants and increase the number of observations to better analyze the impact of varying levels of AI/ML capabilities on risk perception and escalation.

Expanding Research and Participant Diversity

To gain a comprehensive understanding, future research should include a wider array of participants, including those from the general public and non-govt. entities. Comparing public perceptions with those of experts can provide valuable insights. Ideally, these simulations should involve a diverse group of international players to reflect the global nature of security challenges.

Conclusion

AI and ML are set to play a transformative role in national security and crisis management. While these technologies offer significant benefits, they also pose substantial risks. It is imperative to conduct thorough and inclusive research, challenging existing findings and expanding the range of participants, to ensure that AI/ML integration in national security enhances stability rather than inadvertently leading to catastrophic outcomes. The future of deterrence will depend on how effectively human judgment is supported and informed by these emerging technologies.

Deterring China: Imposing Nonmilitary Costs to Preserve

Peace in the Taiwan Strait

For decades, the United States, and other allies have attempted to manage their differences with the People's Republic of China (PRC) through incentives, concessions, and efforts to deescalate tensions. However, there is a growing consensus that this approach has failed, prompting policymakers to prioritize deterrence.

The Case for Urgency

Deterring Chinese force against Taiwan is an urgent priority. The increasing aggressiveness of China's actions in the region necessitates immediate and decisive measures to prevent escalation and maintain stability.

Deterrence of China must be understood as a dynamic and ongoing effort rather than a static one. It requires continuous adaptation and vigilance to respond effectively to changing circumstances and strategies employed by Beijing.

Gray Zone Challenges

China's success in the gray zone—where it controls the pace and nature of escalation without crossing the threshold of open conflict—makes it challenging to deter Beijing from taking the final step over the red line. To counter this, it is essential to address gray zone activities robustly and consistently.

Targeting Xi Jinping's Calculations

Given Xi Jinping’s centralization of power and decision-making in China, deterrence efforts should focus on influencing his personal calculations. Changing Xi’s strategic objectives and approach requires targeted measures that directly affect his decision-making process.

Imposing Costs to Change Chinese Calculations

The United States and its allies must impose tangible costs on the PRC to alter its calculations regarding coercion and aggression. By conditioning Beijing to expect repercussions for its actions, it becomes possible to deter further aggressive behavior.

Establishing Expectation of Retaliation

It is crucial for China and other regional countries to expect ongoing retaliatory measures from the US and its allies in response to coercive or aggressive activities. This expectation will act as a deterrent, reducing the likelihood of such actions being undertaken.

Maximizing Political Pressure on Xi Jinping

To compel Xi Jinping to reassess and recalibrate his strategies, the imposed costs should maximize political pressure on him. This can be achieved through coordinated, sustained efforts that create significant internal and external consequences for his policies.

Conclusion

The approach to deterring China in the Taiwan Strait must evolve from passive de-escalation to active imposition of nonmilitary costs. By targeting Xi Jinping's calculations, addressing gray zone challenges, and establishing a consistent expectation of retaliation, the US and its allies can enhance deterrence and preserve peace in the region.

World At War-Lessons For India

F-16s Impact on Ukraine’s War Effort

Deploying F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine marks a significant strategic shift. This analysis, informed by CSIS experts, delves into the tactical advantages, challenges, and critical recommendations necessary for bolstering Ukraine’s defense capabilities within the NATO framework.

Strategic Importance in 2024

As Ukraine enters 2024, it faces a critical juncture. The nation’s manpower, supplies, and ammunition reserves are depleting, presenting a prime opportunity for Russia to gain momentum and exploit the West’s decreasing support. The integration of F-16s into the Ukrainian Armed Forces aims to stall Russia’s potential counteroffensive and further embed Ukraine into the U.S. and European economic and defense ecosystems.

Enhancing Air Power and Security

The deployment of F-16s will significantly bolster Ukraine's air power, improving the security of its airspace and enhancing its ability to target more Russian assets. Achieving localized air superiority initially, and eventually broad and enduring air superiority, should be the ultimate goal. This endeavor will require not only F-16s but also an increase in the overall number of aircraft.

Immediate and Long-term Adjustments

To ensure the F-16s play a pivotal role in 2024 and beyond, it is crucial to implement both short- and long-term adjustments in partnership capacity. This will facilitate the effective utilization of these advanced fighter jets and maximize their impact on combat operations.

Policy-Level Decisions

At the policy level, the United States must decide the desired scope of Ukrainian military capabilities. Should Ukraine be equipped to defend, deter, or decisively defeat Russia? Regardless of the chosen objective, it is clear that Ukraine requires more aircraft urgently. Immediate support is essential to maintain and enhance Ukraine's defense posture.

Conclusion

Ensuring Ukraine is well-equipped with sufficient aircraft is imperative for maintaining air superiority and countering Russian advances. The decisions made now will shape the future of Ukraine's defense capabilities and its integration into the broader NATO alliance.

The Drone Threat and the Security of the Red and Black Seas

Introduction

Uncrewed Aerial Systems (UAVs) and Uncrewed Surface Vessels (USVs) present significant challenges to naval fleets attempting to maintain control in the narrow theatres of the Red and Black Seas. This essay examines events in these regions to evaluate how such technologies are reshaping maritime security dynamics.

Comparative Analysis of Conflicts

The Red and Black Seas provide a compelling backdrop for understanding the evolving security-warfare continuum. In the Black Sea, Ukrainian forces have effectively used UAVs and USVs to challenge the Russian Navy. Similarly, in the Red Sea, Houthi forces leverage these technologies to pressure multi-national naval task forces.

Asymmetric Warfare Tactics

Both conflicts illustrate the strategic use of low-cost, uncrewed systems to strike at naval fleets and disrupt maritime shipping. These tactics are particularly effective in narrow seas where one side holds naval superiority, while the other, lacking a traditional navy, uses asymmetric methods to hinder their adversary's maritime operations.

Key Differences in Implementation

While there are notable similarities in the use of uncrewed technology in these conflicts, there are also subtle but critical differences. Each side has implemented these technologies in unique ways, offering valuable lessons for future maritime security strategies.

Lessons Learned

Analyzing these differences provides insights into how uncrewed systems can be optimized for various strategic objectives. Understanding the successes and limitations of each approach can guide the development of more effective maritime security measures in similar conflict zones.

Conclusion

The increasing use of UAVs and USVs in the Red and Black Seas highlights the transformative impact of uncrewed technology on maritime security. As these systems continue to evolve, they will play a crucial role in shaping the future of naval warfare and the security of narrow seas.

Operation ASPIDES: Restoring Freedom of Navigation in the Red Sea

The crisis in the Strait of Bab Al Mandeb poses a significant threat to world and European interests. Operation ASPIDES represents the European Union's strategic response, solidifying its role as a global maritime security provider.

Instability in the Middle East

The conflict between Israel and Hamas, ignited by the tragedy of October 7, 2023, has become a focal point of instability in the Middle East and the Arabian Peninsula. The ensuing crisis in the Red Sea, particularly the threat to freedom of navigation, is directly linked to this broader regional instability.

Economic Implications

The threat to freedom of navigation in the Red Sea is a grave concern for world and European economic interests. The disruption of maritime routes impacts the import and export of essential resources and products, highlighting the critical importance of maintaining open and secure sea lanes.

The Strategic Importance of the Red Sea

The Strait of Bab Al Mandeb is a crucial chokepoint that, if compromised, allows hostile forces to disrupt trans-regional shipping. Both state and non-state actors can exploit this bottleneck to exert pressure on the international community by targeting merchant and commercial vessels.

The Role of Operation ASPIDES

Operation ASPIDES is a strategic initiative designed to prevent the normalization of threats to freedom of navigation. It underscores the collective effort of Italy and the European Union to safeguard maritime routes and send a strong message against any attempts to compromise them.

Operation ASPIDES demonstrates the European Union's commitment to maintaining maritime security and protecting vital economic interests in the region.