Will 'Red Ants' cut Rahul Gandhi's path to victory in Kerala's Wayanad?

Wayanad, a picturesque minority-dominated region has long been a stronghold for the Indian National Congress, making it an obvious choice for Rahul Gandhi, who is seeking refuge from the storms brewing in the North. The Lok Sabha constituency in the communist state has elected only Congress candidates since its formation in 2009.

 

 

The Gandhi scion and the Congress High Command were looking for a safe political hideout for him with minorities playing a decisive role in the poll, and no other constituency in India at that time offered him such political security.

 

Suffering from a severe political drought in the North, the Gandhi scion has increasingly looked south for greener pastures.

 

 

Rahul Gandhi’s victory in Wayanad in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls with 7,06,367 votes is the highest margin (over four lakh votes) by which any candidate has won an election in Kerala. His closest rival from Communist Party of India (CPI), PP Suneer had received 2,74,597 votes.

 

Rahul Gandhi polled around 65% of the votes in the last election. It's true that after winning, he was never seen in Wayanad until he started campaigning again last week. His vote percentage is bound to come down this time.

 

 

As per the 2011 census, Hindus comprise less than 50% of the population of Wayanad (See the image). This percentage assumedly must have come down in the last 13 years.

 

According to The Quint’s article in 2019, the Wayanad Lok Sabha seat has 44.85 per cent Muslims, 41.31 per cent Hindus and nearly 13 per cent Christians. It also needs to be remembered that a significant portion of this population are Communist supporters as well.

Wayanad consists of seven Assembly segments: Kalpetta, Mananthavady, Sulthan Bathery, Thiruvambady, Eranad, Nilambur, and Wandoor. 

 

Kalapetta and Mananthavady are Scheduled Tribe constituencies and Wandoor is a Scheduled Caste constituency. In the 2021 Assembly polls, Mananthavady, Thiruvambady, and Nilambur went to the Communist Party of India (Marxist) fold. The remaining four elected the Congress-led United Democratic Front despite a wave in favour of the Left Democratic Front.

 

Scheduled Castes constitute three per cent while Scheduled Tribes were 9.5 per cent of the total voters of the constituency. Muslims are 32 per cent and Christians are 13 per cent. The abundance of these minority groups and the absence of a substantial Hindutva vote bank in the seat create a comfort zone for Rahul Gandhi. 

 

 

It should be noted, things aren’t all positive for Rahul Gandhi this time though.

 

Interestingly, objections to Rahul Gandhi's candidacy have not only emanated from the BJP but also from within the Left in Kerala.

 

The Left in Kerala objected to Rahul Gandhi's candidature this time from the very beginning right after the INDIA bloc took form. It argued that the INDIA front's main face should be contesting a BJP stronghold, and not in Kerala against its own alliance partner.

 

As per The Week, the CPI had urged the 'Congress Youth icon' not to fight from Wayanad last September. The party fielding a leader like Raja was also viewed as a way to deter him from entering the fray from the district. However, the Congress again fielded Gandhi from Wayanad, which too was expected.

 

The CPI, a partner of the ruling CPI(M)-led LDF in Kerala, has nominated senior party leader Annie Raja, general secretary of the party’s National Federation of Indian Women, as its candidate. 60-year-old Annie has been a part of the CPI since before she reached voting age. Now, she is contesting in an election for the first time. Her chosen constituency of Wayanad is of particular interest across India, because Annie will take on one of the biggest names in the Congress party – Rahul Gandhi.

 

She is poised to garner more votes than any previous left candidate because of her stature and her ability to connect with people. In fact, if it was not Rahul Gandhi contesting, she could have made the race in Wayanad even tighter.

Besides Raja, Gandhi will face the BJP’s Kerala unit chief K Surendran from Wayanad. Both Raja and Surendran have targeted the Congress leader over his absence from the constituency in the last five years.

 

 

Repeated incidents of man-animal conflicts and the resident protests have rocked Wayanad.

 

"Wild elephants have visited Wayanad more than Rahul Gandhi,” was the first political statement made by K Surendran after his candidature was announced.

 

Wayanad, with more than 79% of its area under forest cover, has always faced human-animal conflicts. However, it has surged with the effects of climate change. Multiple deaths occurred in the last many months after elephants, tigers, and other wild animals stepped into human habitations, owing to the summer heat and lack of food availability.

 

But the biggest woe of all is the lack of a medical infrastructure. Wayanad does not have a government-run medical college and the available facilities are insufficient to treat major health issues, where patients have to be often taken to the adjacent Kozhikode district.