#SecurityScan 59: Canada’s Support to Khalistani Terrorism and much more

This article is a summary of important events that have taken place in last one week affecting, India's national security

Winning Proxy War Launched By Pakistan

Pakistan - A failed state

Pakistan Prioritising Jihad in India Over Economy?

Former Pakistan prime minister Nawaz Sharif blamed former Pakistan army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa and former spymaster Faiz Hameed for the turmoil the nation finds itself in.

“Today India has reached the moon, the G20 meeting is being held in India, and Pakistan is begging countries around the world for a billion dollars,” Nawaz Sharif said.

Sharif lauded India’s economic growth and compared it to Pakistan and pointed out that the Pakistani Prime Minister has to go to Beijing and capitals of Arab nations with a begging bowl asking for funds. He said it is regrettable that Pakistan is on the brink of defaulting on its debts.

It should be noted that former Pakistan army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa and former spymaster and the director general of the Inter-Services Intelligence (DG-ISI) Faiz Hameed were favoured by the former prime minister Imran Khan.

While Bajwa had his tenure extended during Khan’s reign and is accused of rigging the elections to engineer the former cricketer’s victory in the 2018 elections, Hameed was appointed as DG-ISI during the Imran Khan regime.

Secret Pakistani arms sale to US helped facilitate IMF bailout

A secret arms sales agreement between Pakistan and the United States helped facilitate a bailout from the IMF earlier this year, according to The Intercept. The arms sales were intended to supply the Ukrainian military, indicating Pakistani involvement in a conflict it had been pressured to take sides on.

External Security

Anantnag gunfight over; LeT commander Uzair Khan among 2 terrorists killed:

"Till now, LeT commander Uzair Khan's body has been recovered. The dead body of another terrorist is visible, but it has not been possible to retrieve it yet," army told in Anantnag. The gunfight, which began in the Gadole forest area of the south Kashmir district on Wednesday last week, is over, but the search operation will continue.

Canada’s Support to Khalistani Terrorism

Is Justin Trudeau reconsidering his approach to diplomatic relations with India? Just a day after accusing India of orchestrating the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada, Trudeau has been quoted as saying that Canada is not seeking to provoke India. However, this statement may come a bit too late, considering the tit-for-tat expulsion of diplomats that has already taken place. Additionally, a closer examination of the statements made by Canada's Western allies suggests that none of them, including the US, have publicly expressed support for Canada's stance. In fact, some reports suggest that these allies even refused to issue a joint statement with Canada regarding the Nijjar case. It remains uncertain whether Trudeau will reevaluate his position, but what is evident is that there are several issues with Canada's approach.

Firstly, Canada's actions were based on "credible allegations" rather than concrete evidence. There is a significant distinction between allegations and evidence. Secondly, India has legitimate reasons to voice its concerns. It has repeatedly communicated with the Canadian government about the presence of extremist Khalistanis in Canada, who have targeted Indian diplomats. Canadian authorities were also alerted to the risks posed by Khalistani groups to Canada itself due to their connections with global narcotics networks and Pakistan-backed terrorist organizations. Nevertheless, these extremists seem to operate with relative impunity. Thirdly, while Sikhs make up 2.1% of Canada's population, radical elements within the community wield disproportionate influence in Canadian politics, particularly in provinces like British Columbia, where they play a role in mobilizing Sikh votes.

This context helps explain Trudeau's political posturing. Faced with low approval ratings and leading a minority government, he may be seeking an issue to boost his popularity. India should remain steadfast and allow Trudeau to determine how far he is willing to take this situation.

The Trudeau government's allegation lacks credibility and appears to be part of a coordinated effort to target India. It is likely that Khalistani extremist Nijjar, who was involved in criminal activities and gang conflicts, fell victim to his own criminal associates.

Exactly three months after the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Khalistani extremist and the leader of the Khalistan Tiger Force, as well as the head of Guru Nanak Sikh Gurudwara in Surrey, Vancouver, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau made a startling announcement during an emergency session of parliament. He claimed there were "credible allegations" of the involvement of "Indian agents" in Nijjar's death and ordered the expulsion of a senior Indian diplomat for their alleged role in the "assassination."

Trudeau used the term "credible allegations" rather than "credible evidence." Despite three months passing since the incident, Canadian agencies have not disclosed any significant progress in their investigation into the killing, and there is no publicly available evidence to support Trudeau's statement. However, Trudeau's statement is likely to influence further investigations into the case.

India's military relationships with Canada to continue: Indian Army

The Indian Army stated that tensions between India and Canada do not affect them, emphasizing that their diplomatic and military relationships with Canada remain intact. The Indian Army's Additional Director General mentioned that Canada's Chief of the Defence Staff will be visiting India for the Indo-Pacific Armies Chiefs Conference. The conference aims to strengthen security partnerships in the region. Indo-Canadian relations have recently soured due to allegations made by the Canadian Prime Minister regarding the Indian government's involvement in a shooting incident.

Primacy of tech in modern battlefield amply demonstrated: Gen Pande

The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has highlighted the importance of firepower and technology in modern warfare, according to Indian Army Chief Gen Manoj Pande. Speaking at an event in New Delhi, Gen Pande emphasised the need for a realistic assessment of the duration of war and the inclusion of technology in military strategies.

Indian Navy has a Rs 2 lakh crore plan to counter Chinese dragon in Indian Ocean

The Indian Navy has placed orders for 68 warships and vessels worth approximately Rs 2 lakh crore in its effort to strengthen its blue-water force and counter China's increasing presence in the Indian Ocean Region. The orders include next-generation corvettes, submarines, survey vessels, and multi-purpose vessels. The Navy aims to achieve a force level of 155-160 warships by 2030, with a long-term goal of 175-200 warships by 2035.

600 self-neutralising 'Vibhav' anti-tank mines with safety mechanism inducted into Army

The Indian Army has inducted 600 indigenously-manufactured self-neutralising anti-tank mines called "Vibhav". These mines, made of new-age plastic, are designed to provide mobility kill against enemy armoured vehicles. Developed in a joint venture with the Defence Research and Development Organisation, the mines have safety and actuation mechanisms to ensure operator safety.

First C-295 transport aircraft of IAF lands at Vadodara

The first C-295 transport plane was officially handed over to the IAF during a ceremony held in Seville, Spain, last week. This versatile aircraft has the capability to perform various missions, including special operations, disaster response, and maritime patrol duties.

Southeast Asia nations hold first joint navy drills near disputed South China Sea

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has initiated its first joint naval exercise, called ASEAN Solidarity Exercise, amid growing concerns over China's assertiveness in the region. The exercises, taking place in Indonesia's Natuna waters, aim to strengthen military ties among ASEAN nations and enhance interoperability.

US in active talks with India to look at producing military systems

The United States is engaged in discussions with India about producing military systems in areas such as Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) and ground-based conventional warfare. Efforts are also being made to establish a reciprocal defense procurement agreement. The talks aim to finalize a security of supply arrangement and increase market access for US and Indian defense industries. This relationship is a top priority for the Pentagon, as it is considered essential for achieving their strategy in the Indo-Pacific region.

A storm is brewing in the waters around Sri Lanka and India and it has nothing to do with the weather

A Chinese survey vessel Shi Yan 6, has sought permission from Colombo to survey the waters off Sri Lanka next month, which would also involve docking at a harbour there. Colombo is yet to decide although it has been working on a set of procedures that will cover how such requests should be handled. India is clear it does not want to see the Shi Yan 6 in Sri Lanka, but is aware that any effort to pressure Colombo could trigger a backlash.There is widespread appreciation in his country for India's help during the economic collapse last year.

Boeing comes out with 'Aatmanirbhar Bharat' approach for P-8I aircraft

Boeing has outlined its plan to enhance the capabilities of the P-8I long-range maritime surveillance and anti-submarine warfare aircraft in India. The company is eyeing an additional order of six planes, which would increase the Indian Navy's P-8I fleet to 18 aircraft. Boeing has already generated a substantial economic impact of $1.7 billion to support the current fleet.

Indian Navy moves mega deal to buy second indigenous aircraft carrier

The Defence Ministry would be shortly discussing the proposal moved by the Indian Navy as one of the biggest programmes under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Aatmanirbharta (self reliance) programme in defence sector, they said. The programme will create several thousand direct and manifold indirect jobs through the Cochin Shipyard Limited in Kerala when the work on the IAC-2 is approved by the government.

Countering Chinese Multi domain War

Danger Of Xi Jinping Becoming More Aggressive With Political Turmoil In China

Claude Arpi talks about his recent revisit to Arunachal Pradesh and areas near the LAC on the China-occupied-Tibet border. Comparing it to his last trip in 2022, he describes the differences in infrastructure as "changing things drastically for the civilian population as well as for the army". One of the standout, strategic infrastructure projects, which StratNews documented in a ground report is the Sela all-weather tunnel, is expected to be opened in October 2023. "China has started understanding that 1962 is over, now it's a new era and they can't do much mischief in this area", Claude says on India's military preparedness. After revisiting the Chumi Gyatse or Holy Waterfalls, Claude says, "even if they try for 500 metres or one kilometre, they will be repelled". PLA's attempts at incursions in Yangtse, were thwarted in 2021 and 2022, The Tibet and China expert points to "political turmoil in China", with "the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Defence Minister disappearing" and "a danger of (China) becoming more aggressive."

Xi’s Purge of Handpicked Ministers Shatters Image of Stability

Chinese leader has ousted top ministers with no explanationAbrupt personnel moves have spooked investors and governmentsAfter President Xi Jinping tore up the Communist Party rulebook to promote key loyalists last year, some China watchers expected his new team to operate more smoothly in tackling China’s biggest challenges.Instead, his government looks like it’s in disarray. Xi’s mysterious purge of his foreign minister in July, followed by the reported ouster of his defense chief less than two months later, is making China appear unstable to the outside world. The Chinese leader also overhauled the generals overseeing China’s Rocket Force, which manages the nation’s nuclear arsenal, without giving an explanation.

China military upgrades get bigger, heavier & faster

China's military modernization efforts are evident in the upgrades being made to its warships and warplanes. At a recent helicopter expo, China showcased a high-powered engine crucial to the development of medium- and heavyweight helicopters. The country also launched a bigger and more advanced frigate equipped with advanced radar and propulsion systems. Additionally, China is conducting flight tests for its J-20 stealth fighter with new engines that would increase its range and capabilities.

China's military hierarchy under spotlight after defence minister disappears

The PLA is the armed wing of the ruling Communist Party and, according the Pentagon's annual report on China's military, "does not directly serve the state but is rather under the direct control of the party". As Li rose through his career to this point, he would have been vetted to ensure he was absolutely loyal to the party and to Xi.

Taiwan detects 103 Chinese warplanes around island, urges China to –

Taiwan's defense ministry has called on China to cease "destructive, unilateral action" following a significant increase in Chinese military activities near the island. The ministry reported 103 Chinese military aircraft in the region, with fighter jets crossing the unofficial barrier of the Taiwan Strait and other aircraft flying south of Taiwan through the Bashi Channel. The ministry warned that such behavior could lead to heightened tensions and urged China to take responsibility and halt these actions.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning, asked about the reported military activity, said there is no such thing as a "median line" because Taiwan is part of Chinese territory. China last week sent a flotilla of ships including the aircraft carrier Shandong into waters near Taiwan. The drills came shortly after the US and Canada sailed warships through the Taiwan Strait, the waters that separate the island from the mainland.

Countering Chinese Grey Zone Warfare In Maritime Domain

Global maritime operations conducted by Beijing serve a dual purpose as intelligence-gathering outposts. Over the past three decades, the Chinese government has been actively seeking access and influence in open seas, strategic shipping lanes, and foreign ports worldwide.

China's ownership, co-ownership, or operation of around 96 foreign ports globally reflects its expanding portfolio, including recent acquisitions in Hamburg, Germany, and the Solomon Islands.

Given Beijing's increasingly adversarial stance towards the West in economic and geopolitical matters, it is imperative to thoroughly comprehend and mitigate the risks associated with Chinese maritime infrastructure ownership.

What specific measures should the Western world and India take to mitigate challenges posed by Chinese takeover of maritime assets all over the world?

What should be done so that free flow of global merchant traffic takes place both during peace time and war time?

Following specific measures that should to be taken:-

Carry out Security Assessments:

Conduct thorough security assessments of Chinese-owned or operated ports and maritime infrastructure to identify potential vulnerabilities and risks. This should involve close cooperation between Western intelligence agencies, maritime agencies, and govt authorities.

Western nations and India should establish stringent review mechanisms to scrutinize foreign investments in strategic maritime assets, especially those with potential national security implications. Transparency in ownership and operations is vital.

Force Chinese to increase Transparency and Accountability:

Encourage transparency in Chinese maritime investments and operations. Require Chinese companies to adhere to international standards of transparency and accountability, making it easier to monitor their activities and ensure compliance with security and environmental regulations.

Diversification of Port Operators:

Promote diversification of port operators by encouraging investments from a variety of countries. This reduces dependence on China and will help maintaining the autonomy of ports.

China customs data showed on Wednesday exports of germanium and gallium slumped to zero in August.

Imposed on grounds of national security, new export restrictions require exporters to seek a license to ship some gallium and germanium compounds starting Aug 1.

China did not export any germanium and gallium products in August, after export curbs kicked into effect at the start of that month for these two chipmaking metals.

Customs data showed that China exported zero germanium product last month, down from 8.63 metric tons in July

July germanium exports were more than double that of June’s, as purchases spiked ahead of the effective date for the curbs that are part of China’s escalating war with the U.S. and its allies over access to strategic technology.

There were also no exports of gallium products in August, compared to the 5.15 tons exported in July, customs data showed.

Germanium and gallium are not found naturally, and are by-products of the refineries of other metals.

Chip making nations such as the U.S. are teaming up against China

Germanium is used in solar products and fiber optics, and can be employed in military applications such as night-vision goggles. Gallium is used for manufacturing the gallium arsenide chemical compound, which is used to make radio frequency chips for mobile phones and satellite communication, and semiconductors.

Citing national security concerns, China’s commerce ministry imposed new restrictions requiring exporters to seek a license to ship some gallium and germanium compounds starting Aug 1.

In October, the U.S. had launched sweeping rules aimed at cutting off exports of key chips and semiconductor tools to China. The measures are believed to have the potential to cripple China’s ambitions to boost its domestic technology industries.

The U.S. has also lobbied key chip making nations and allies, like the Netherlands and Japan, to introduce export restrictions of their own.

No Way Taiwan Will Accept Reunification with China: Gen. Naravane

Last month, former Army Chief Gen. MM Naravane was among three retired Indian service chiefs who visited Taiwan to attend a security dialogue, a visit that made headlines here. Playing down the hype over the trip, Gen. Naravane says it was not the first time a retired service chief visited Taiwan. He also gave a sense of the general mood in Taiwan, saying, after the Hong Kong experience, the Taiwanese feel that ‘one country two systems’ isn’t workable and that the country will in no way accept reunification with China.