36 Hours of Wagner Rebellion as Unfolded

Prigozhin Force is called Wagner after the nickname of its First Commander, Dmitry Utkin, a retired Lieutenant Colonel of the Special Forces of Russia. It is/was a very Brutal and Ruthless Force involved in conflicts in the Middle East and Africa. Its Soldiers are recruited from Russian Prisons in exchange for Amnesty,La blockbuster “Guns of Navaron” Style. The Outfit Spearheaded the Russian assault in Eastern Ukraine and had been at the forefront of a months-long assault on Bakhmut. Disagreement and animosity between Wagner Chief and Top Russian Military Leadership came to a boil in the early hours of 24 June,23 when Wagner Forces took control of key Military Headquarters in South Russia and headed Northwards towards Moscow.It diverted Russian Attention and Resources away from Ukraine, at a time when Ukraine was poised for/started a Counter Offensive to Seize Back Lost Southern Ukraine.

Those 36 Hours busted Myth of Invincibility of Russian Leader who governed Russia with an Iron Hand for past 23 years and is Infallible in Eyes of his Allies and Enemies.One must not write his Political Obituary today just because the Rebellion happened in Russia where disorder is forbidden.President Vladimir Putin is defending Invasion of Ukraine. He has lost Thousands of Soldiers, expended Huge Firepower and put Russia under Global Sanctions.He still has Most Powerful Military on his side, with an Obedient and Fawning TV and Print Media.Without any Doubt, this Rebellion has Exposed Cracks in Russian Hierarchy.

On evening of 24 June,2023, Kremlin announced that Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko had negotiated a deal wherein a) Wagner Chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin will be allowed to gol to Belarus without facing criminal charges in Russia; b) Volunteers from Wagner Group will be absorbed by Russian Ministry of Defense; c) NO Body will be charged for Treason; d) Russia will drop all Criminal Cases against Prigozhin and his Soldiers. Russia thanked Belarus President for negotiating this deal and avoiding Bloodshed/Bloody Massacre; and e) President Putin offered General Amnesty to Wagner Mercenaries who lay down their weapons fast.

In a bilateral action, Yevgeny Prigozhin called off Wagner "March for Justice” to Moscow and ordered his Forces back to their Training Grounds.This was a Strategic Decision on part of Prigozhin. Belarus President Lukashenko,who offered to mediate in this crisis, must have confronted him with Various Dire Consequences Wagner Group would face who,in any case, was fighting a Losing Battle. Prigozhin started with Certain Bravado but Sank like a Damp Squib. President Putin won This Round,Saw himself through This Challenge, with All Cards in His Hand.By this time,Wagner Forces had already killed over a dozen Russian Troops/Persons and lost few Soldiers and some equipment in Russian Armed Helicopter Attack.Specifics of the deal, Exact How and on what,Timeline,Expected outcomes and Whether it would be implemented in Toto is Not Clear.After Lukashenko Agreement,Wagner Forces will now begin Widrawal to their Bases.

On 23 June,2023 nightr,Wagner Group encircled HQ of the Russian Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don.It was begining of an Armed Rebellion against Russia by her Protage.Russia'n FSB Security Service filed Criminal Case against Prigozhin for Armed Mutiny.Whether it is instigated by America for a reward is not sure/known but the news of Pentagon announcement on 20 June,23, of Missing Six Billion Dollars from its Ukraine Accounts, adds to this speculation.President Putin appeared on National Television declaring very severe and serious punishments to those who had participated in Wegner Rebellion.He vowed to crush this Armed Mutiny. He accused Prigozhin of "Treason" and a "Stab in the Back". And labelled Wagner Mutiny a "Deadly Threat" to Russia and urged his Countrymen to Unite. On 23 June itself,Prigozhin met Deputy Defense Minister Colonel General Yunus Bek Yevkurov at Rostov and demanded to see Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.

At Moscow Time 1030 on 24 June,,Wagner Soldiers crossed Voronezh Oblast Border at Burgaevka Checkpoint where Russian Soldiers reportedly surrendered to Wagner Forces.Thereafter, Wagner Forces advanced towards Moscow on Rostov Voronezh Moscow Highway No 4, running along Ikorets River with number of Tanks and Two Pantsir-1 Air Defence Systems. On their way to Moscow, Russian Helicopter Fleet consisting of Ka-52 Helicopters/Mi 8 Electronic Warfare Helicopters/ Mi 28 Helicopters/Mi 35 Helicopters struck this convoy with Missiles and Guns Blazing,at Voronezh. Unconfirmed Reports claim Wagner Forces shooting down; Three Mi-8,One Mi-8,One Ka-52,One Mi28 and One Mi 35 Helicopter in this attack. Wagner Soldiers drove to within 330 km short of Moscow.

Russia struggled to cohere an effective rapid response to Wagner Advances due to Surprise and the impact of Heavy Losses in Ukraine.Putin has staunchly defended Russian Ministry of Defence and its ongoing efforts to control Russian Irregular Forces. Prigozhin vehemently opposed this effort. Probably he thought that to retain separate identity he might as well march towards Moscow. But it seems that he overestimated. Present Agreement may/would remove Prigozhin as Head of Wagner Group.Russia mounted her Largest Missile Strikes against Ukraine in recent months on 24 June despite an Armed Rebellion. Russia faces a deeply unstable equilibrium as Deal negotiated by Belarus President is a Short Term Solution.Wegnar Rebellion brought out certain Russian Weaknesses.

It brought out that President Putin did not use his Forces in a timely manner to repel an Internal Threat.Rapid drive of Wagner Forces towards Moscow showed to all Concerned Persons that Private Militias also can achieve Impressive Results.Since Battle Hardened Russian Soldiers were fighting in Ukraine,it demonstrated Harsh Dangers of Reliance on Inexperienced Conscripts to defend Russian Borders. Slow Russian Response in reaching “World Information Space/Domain” regarding the incidence brought out Importance of Cyber Warfare.Failure of Russian Intelligence,FSB,to determine Prigozhin's Real Intentions came to fore. He consistently escalated his rhetoric against the Russian MoD prior to his Armed Rebellion and Russian Administration failed to Mitigate this Risk.

America was/has been monitoring the situation and consulted her Allies and NATO. She also consulted G7 Foreign Ministers and European Union Foreign Affairs Ministers.Britain, France, Germany and Italy also monitored this event.West doesn't want Chaos,Breakdown of Law and Order or Civil War in Russia as she is still the Largest Nuclear Weapons Holder in World. India preferred to remain silent. Surprisingly, China has not uttered a word for or against Wagner Rebellion.Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov offered his active help to put down this revolt. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan urged Putin to act "With Common Sense".Russia's Foreign Ministry warned Western Countries against using this mutiny "To achieve their Russophobic Goals".Military Analysts all over World, including India, deliberated whether General Shoigu would retain his post because of the Deal struck with Wagner to end Mutiny.

Concrete Impact of this Rebellion and Weak Response of Russia as also whether Russian Government/President Putin would have been Shunted out of Power as its after effect, can be predicted/forecasted later at Opportune Moment.But one thing is sure that,in near future, this will definitely damage Putin/His Government and the Russian War Effort/Prospects in Ukraine.What India has to Learn from this Episode is akin to Russian Weaknesses enumerated above.



















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