Military Takeover Due to Turmoil In Pakistan

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Pakistan is going through a Financial Crisis and Political Turmoil. Shehbaz Sharif's Government is unable to control the prices of essentials as well as most other commodities. Erstwhile Prime Minister Mian Imran Khan Niyazi has raised a call for revolt, was arrested, dragged into Police Custody, and granted a 14-day reprieve by the Supreme Court of Pakistan. Many amongst us are visualizing the formation of "Akhand Bharat" as the situation is deteriorating in Pakistan. The time is ripe for Pak Army to step in and take over the reins. Past history confirms this statement. But "will/could Army do this" is a big question looming before Defence Analysts in India and abroad.

At present, Army can take over reigns in Pakistan due to (a) Constitutional Machinery is on the verge of a breakdown because of the ongoing tussle between the Federal Government/Parliament and the Supreme Court/Chief Justice of Pakistan;(b) Conflict between major Political Parties has the potential to turn violent; and (c) Army/Air Force has been subjected to Physical Attacks after a prolonged Anti Military Campaign on Media/ Social Media. These reasons developments, lead to a situation that is conducive to an Army Takeover.

In the past, Army has taken over to:- (a) Avert a Situation of Civil Strife/Street Fights between Rival Political Groups in 1977; (b) When the Political and Economic Interests of the Nation were endangered by popular trends in politics in 1958; and (c) As the aftermath of the conflict between Political Forces and Army High Command in 1999. These three situations/reasons do exist in Pakistan in Current Political Situation. A real threat exists of street fighting between Shehbaz Sharif-led Pakistan Muslim League (Nawab) and Imran Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek e Islam. In addition, the Political Activism of Imran Khan is threatening/ is in Direct Confrontation with Army.

In spite of these reasons, Army will not attempt to impose Military Rule in Pakistan because it does not have/find any International Mentor ready to foot the Finances for his Adventure. The main reason for this eventuality is a Possible Default in payment of a Staggering Lone of 77.5 Billion Dollars to various Countries and International Financial Institutions in the near future. No Army Commander would like to take the onus of an Impending Economic Meltdown. It would be preferable that the winner in the next/coming General Election take the blame for default on the Financial Commitments of Pakistan. No Army Commander A military commander would like to take the blame for default which would likely result in more hardships for Common Man.

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As I have mentioned above, an Army takeover in the absence of any Viable International Support from any Major Power is not feasible. In fact; in the case of all Three Army Takeovers in the history of Pakistan, American Administration had footed the bill. General Ayub Khan displaced Surhavardi on "Go Ahead" from America. But; General Zia ul Haq and Parvez Musharraf were not sure that they would get financial backing from America after their takeover. America started giving financial assistance to their respective Governments because of the Situation in Afghanistan.

Neither America nor any other major power has any interest to become a mentor for any prospective Army Takeover in Pakistan. America gave clear signals that she has NO major interest in this region when her last soldier left Afghanistan. Presently, Russia is maintaining a friendship with Pakistan as she visualizes Pakistan's Military as prospective buyers of their hardware. Then, Russian interest in Counter Terrorism may bring her closer to Pakistan. But definitely, she will not/may not like to foot the bill for Domestic Army Adventure in Pakistan. On the other hand, China will not like Civil Strife in Pakistan as only a peaceful and stable Pakistan will fulfill her Dream Project of China Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Though America, China, and Russia have NO interest in Army Takeover in Pakistan, there still exists one possibility that one or all of them may revive her/their Strategic Interests in Pakistan/this region, and that is of a Direct Military Confrontation between Major Powers.

As the Military Maxim goes, ‘There can be no Peace without War’. Russo-Ukraine Conflict, China-India Military Tensions, Taiwan Tussle, the South China Sea, Nuclear Sabre Rattling in Korean Peninsula, and Chinese Ingress into the Indian Ocean are major Flash Points. There is no Unipolar World as of date. It has become Bipolar which is gradually turning into a Multipolar World, with a Real Possibility of Conflict between Major Powers. Russo-American Forces could clash in Central/ Eastern Europe, America may collide with China in the South China Sea, and Russo-Chinese Strategic Combine against American/ NATO Forces in a Theatre of War, the location of which will be determined by events. These possibilities make these regions "Most likely Locations for Major Power Wars. This could revive the Strategic Value of Pakistan. China has heavily invested in Pakistan, both economically and militarily.

None of them have any tangible Interest in Pakistani Democracy. Such a conflict will invite and support Army Takeover in Pakistan. But Army Commander will certainly not take over in the absence of an International Mentor. Pakistan Army, therefore, will facilitate the holding of Fresh Parliamentary Elections and make sure that power is handed over to the Winner. To date, Pakistan cannot afford any kind of Civil Strife. The confrontation between Army and Political Forces will lead to the Suicidal Collapse of Pakistan and Pak COAS knows this fact. The unprecedented intrigues within Pakistan Army do not bode well for India. As of date, all Institutions in Pakistan, except Army, have been systematically enunciated and hence are Unreliable Interlocutors for India. This is true for America though, all Administrators/Presidents in the White House pretentiously seem to prefer Democracy in Pakistan.

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Army in Pakistan is also under tremendous stress as something unwarranted, and unthinkable is happening in Army General Headquarters in Rawalpindi. Army Chief seems to be failing in maintaining a Disciplined, Monolithic Atmosphere within Pakistan Army. Today, it seems that Pakistan Army is divided in its Political Loyalties. To date, Pakistani Politicians were divided in their loyalties towards Army who, always picked their favorite Politician and installed him/her in office. Today, a reversal of Role is on the cards. Army Chief, General Asim Munir Ahmed Shah, will stop at nothing to prevent Imran Khan from returning to elected office in Islamabad. Imran Khan had sacked General Munir as Inter-Services Intelligence Chief before he completed even one year as Spymaster and installed his most loyal General Faiz Hameed, now retired, in that crucial post. After retirement, Faiz has been helping Khan build his Populist Mass Movement as he had previously covertly helped him to build up his movement to dislodge Nawaz Sharif as Prime Minister after the infamous 2016 Panama Papers leak.

On the other hand, then Army Chief, Qamar Javed Bajwa was instrumental in regime change in Islamabad in favor of Shehbaz Sharif because Imran Khan was opposing Pakistan’s benefactors in Washington. After Shehbaz Sharif succeeded Imran Khan, Bajwa has been in constant contact with Nawaz Sharif in London. As the ongoing tussle on the streets of Pakistan for her control reaches its Logical Conclusion streets of Pakistan may/will become bloodied after Nawaz Sharif returns home from Umrah in Saudi Arabia instead of going back to his self-imposed exile in London

Army, at present, has no public support. To get that support, Army needs a “Third Force” to facilitate the Takeover in the future. So "Project Imran" was conceived by General Qamar Bajwa who in turn was selected by Imran Khan to lead Army . But to his surprise, this Third Force went rogue. So he was ousted from power and Shehbaz Sharif came in. He had hidden support of the Pakistan Muslim League (Q: Quaide Azam Group) and Jammat- e-Islami (Pakistan) along with other smaller and Regional Players to shore up support. Therefore, the logical Next Level Strategic Plan was the formation and support of a “Technocrat Government” that can be sanctified by the Judicial Arm of the Army. Will Imran Khan be sacrificed under this Plan by the Army to make a truce thereby giving the only option for the newcomers to this Zero-Sum Game?

If this cauldron is not reconciled soon and the Army can no longer be the glue holding the country together, there is every possibility that Pakistan could splinter like Yugoslavia. With Pakistan’s secret warehouses full of nuclear weapons, this is not good news for anyone, least of all for neighbor India.