Can Pakistan Survive?Why India is Watching at Historical Transition in Pakistan

Which was the inflection point in history of Pakistan? You may mention about losing East Pakistan in 1971? Fact is that East Pakistan was never in harmony with West Pakistan. Major loss was economic as East Pakistan was churning revenue which was being used by West Pakistani elites. The real inflection point came with Soviet invasion of Afghanistan with Pakistan finding itself at the pivotal position to counter the spread of Communism in South East Asia. Dollars came in plenty from USA and middle east, Pakistani establishment made the hay while the sun shone on them at individual level (Generals in Army), organisation level (ISI and Pakistani Army) and to the political leaders. However, Pakistani decision makers lost sight of the fact that economic development was to be given priority at some point. Taliban were invented with those surplus dollars and sustained even against the provider. Who paid the price of those eventful years in the long run? Pakistani society indeed with casualties, emotional stress and deterioration.

 

Dollars dried up, USA got against Taliban, Pakistani Army lost credibility and economy collapsed because import driven economy could not sustain the momentum in the event of free dollars drying up. Rest of the job was done by institutions with high level of corruption and poor institutional integrity. China replaced USA but it does not provide charity. Middle east turned the face away as it started to look after its future plans and irrelevance of Pakistan for its future survival. Jehadi group which were supported by Saudi Arabia and sustained by Pakistan lost the support as crown prince MBS is in the process of changing the architecture of Saudi Arabian society.

 

Only Islamic country with nuclear arsenal lost the battle of equality with India as it lost the relevance of deterrence with the arrival of Modi govt. Maintenance of arsenal is not easy and needs funds. Pakistan Army which continued to extract its pound of flesh from limited funds available, continued with political meddling as only broker with credibility with Pakistani society. Pakistan lost the battle for brinkmanship with India along with its Army and nuclear arsenal as its economic hardships mounted. Ukraine crisis further aggravated the situation as import cost of energy and consumer products including food increased. Balance of payment went haywire; Pakistan rupee lost the value. external debt mounted. However Pakistani elites continued to enjoy as usual while the public suffered immensely.

 

Total external debt is in thetune of 130 billion $ and since it is dollar denominated, problem mounts as Pakistani rupee loses value.

 

 

 

What is happening in Pakistan today is the result of its own policy and reckless attitude of its decision makers including Army. Situation was bad when Imran Khan rode to power with the help of Gen Bajwa but it got worse when he was in power because of poor administration and lack of governing acumen in his entire coterie. However, when he failed and removed, ironically by Gen Bajwa only, he got a good alibi that corruption by previous govts is responsible for the miseries of Pakistan and it is a fact.

 

Pakistani public believed him. They did not have any other choice either. People look for excuses while looking for guilty all around. Imran helped them in the process while gaining popularity and catching public imagination. He captured any Bajwa nationalistic plate form which is getting converted into anti Army plate-from now .

 

When the dollars were surplus, there was no problem. However, as the economic crisis precipitated, people started losing faith in leadership and blame game started. Imran Khan took the lead in blaming the Army as he was removed from power. For the first time in the history of Pakistan, Pakistani Army lost the credibility with public as it sided with Shariff brothers who were blamed by Imran Khan as he set the narrative with the middle class of Pakistan. Public can be led or misled, more so when economic crisis is looming large, daily life is miserable for common man. Even terrorists’ organisations who were always active became overactive as they found state institutions busy in infighting and political battle between establishment on one side and Imran Khan and his supporters on another side, becomes a no holds barred battle.

 

On one side is the popular leader along with support from judiciary and another side is establishment. The confusion within establishment will aggravate as Imran Khan gets more and more popular support and Army gets jittery if it has to fire on its own people. While Imran Khan implore its own people to revolt in a subtle way, events do not follow the set pattern. A single explosive event out of frustrated and poor Pakistani public may change the course of Pakistan and its history as some of them has a herculean task to take refuse in their delusional glorious past. Pakistani Army has history of hanging Bhutto but that was different era and western block had reasons to look other way. They can do the same if sufficient reasons are given to them.

 

 

As Pakistan is in the process of implosion, the question erupts about the possible consequences of its implosion. What will happen to its nuclear arsenal as individuals, organisations or even nations must be looking forward to grab it if possible? Is it a cake to eat? Certainly not! Who could believe 9/11 before it really happened? Who could believe 26/11? Probabilities create strange bed-follows to make them possibilities and certainty. Pakistani Army is not a monolith organisation it used to be, with radicalisation seeping in. There are lot many Mullah Generals in it.

What about Taliban on its Western borders and India on Eastern borders. Taliban is yet to accept Durand line and it will never accept it. Pakhtoons on both side of Durand line have never been easy with Pakistani establishment even when their families were staying in Pakistani soil. While India is a responsible state, Taliban does not do any charity for anybody as the opportunity arises. Now, you can understand the importance of ceasefire on LAC in Jammu and Kashmir for Pakistan.

 

It is a real worry for world? Who can help? Pakistan economic woes have to be mitigated by external sources if Pakistan has to survive. China invested almost 60 billion $ in CPEC, almost 30% of Pakistan external debt is from China mainly for CPEC. China does no charity but it has to forego some part and restructure the rest because it cannot otherwise get it. Any harsh measure on the tune of Hambantota will make its workers more vulnerable for terrorist’s attack. Nobody will be able to help as the institutions crumble due to infighting as they make compromises due to political compulsions.

 

As the situation unfolds, Baluchistan must be looking for its own chances of secession. Pakhtoons and Baluch make a potent combination. Opportunity creates strange bedfellows as they keenly watch the battle for power in Punjab specifically with no real concern for them in real sense.

 

So, how do you conclude? Geographies are never permanent. Nations are created and lost. Realignments take place. Pakistan and the world are staring hard on the events. PM Modi goes to USA for state visit in June 2023. Pakistani nuclear arsenal can be a point of discussion there .NSA of India is moving around the world. Russia is trapped in Ukraine and China is looking forward to annexe Taiwan at the right movement. As problem in Pakistan will continue because process of implosion is slow with so many pauses, the moment to watch is when China gets embroiled in Taiwan and POK citizens are fed up with existing set up there as they face the daily miserable life for themselves. Modi govt is investing in Kashmir in a big way for some important historical moments. These moments are never easy.