Does Indian Posturing Against China Shows Confidence?

Since 2017, China has given Chinese names to 32 geographical locations in Arunachal Pradesh, in addition to Chinese ingress in Ladakh in April 20, attempt to ingress in Yangtse in Twang Sector on 9 Dec, docking of surveillance ships in Hambantota (Sri Lanka) and now attempts to have the Chinese base in Great Coco Island are the provocations which India is facing from Chinese. Latest Chinese overtures to Bhutan on Dokhlam can also be added as an attempt to create differences between Bhutan and India.

 

 

What is Chinese basic core interest? To be recognised at global super power, may be at par with USA. China wants to become a Banyan tree first in Asia and no nation is allowed to grow under it beyond a certain limit. India becomes obvious target for Chinese negative attention. Secondly, Taiwan poses a big challenge to China, not in terms of military capability but in terms of economic challenge and its control over most sophisticated integrated chips and in terms of Chinese civilisational mindset. Destruction of Taiwan through precision strikes and subsequent capture has less attraction for China but an industrial power house which can help China with its high technology base will help China in its sole super power dreams. TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) is very strategic for China. It provides almost 80-90 percent advanced Chips to global market and that is critical for development of military and nonmilitary applications in the world.

 

Ukraine war has provided a unique opportunity to China. It has captured Russian market, be a big brother to Russia, has become a banker to Russia, have all the plans to develop oil pipelines from Russia to China (tide over Malacca dilemma), tie down USA, can create fault lines between Europe and USA while keeping its trade with EU intact. One can read the visit of Macron and before that visit of German Chancellor to China in that context. More than that, as Russian dependence on China grows, Russia – Indian relations will be in jeopardy because of growing Indian – USA strategic partnership, development and growth of QUAD. It is this factor which is worrisome for India. Indian dependence on Russian arms and ammunition is dangerous because it reduces our elbow room. Secondly, Indian import of Russian oil is influencing its relations with European Union.

 

Overtly it looks that we are in problem and China has all the options with it. Probably this is the reason why India’s response to Chinese threats is limited and muted. However, what is happening on ground? Infrastructure development on borders is progressing at a pace which no one has imagined till now. India very well understands Chinese game plan. While at one point it was considered that China will make an effort to take Taiwan by force by around 2027, latest assessment points out at an earlier attempt. I am quoting Brahma Chellaney now.

 

 

 

 

There is no doubt that take over of Taiwan is the compulsion of China and without it, it literally cannot claim any super power status. In the midst of Ukraine crisis, Biden imposed a ban on export on China which can cripple its semiconductor industry.

 

 

 

Why this ban was announced at this point of time. USA has every intention to cripple Chinese semiconductor industry and as a consequence its military applications. China has announced massive investments to develop its own industry but it is easier said than done unless it can take over Taiwan peacefully. It is unrealistic dream.

 

Biden has all the intentions to cripple Chinese plan to take over Taiwan and here comes the role of India and QUAD. QUAD without India is crippled militarily. China is also aware of these facts, hence there is a carrot and stick policy with India. India, is also doing the same. India is keeping Russia in loop through oil trade while it goes for self-reliance and multiple source reliance in arms and ammunition. In a span of five – six years this equation will settle while India is not going to take any position vis a vis Ukraine war, its dependence on Russia for arms and ammunition will be minimized while more and more technology development will be achieved in India through R&D. While USA and its allies will certainly not go for technology transfer to India in a big way, they will not hesitate to sell critical technology weapons to India even in short run so that China can be countered. Critical information with India will be shared as done during Yangtse crisis when critical intelligence was provided to Indian Army about ingress by 600 Chinese soldiers who were taught a good lesson.

 

So, China is interested in keeping India shaky and unstable by all these provocations so that India does not play an important role in QUAD and Indo pacific region and do not become a US tool to counter its aggressive posture against Taiwan. This game is very well understood in Delhi. Indians are frequently interacting with Australia, Japan and South Korea for this reason. USA also understands the necessity to protect Taiwan along with the allies.

 

Taiwan is not Afghanistan for USA to be abandoned. Taiwan developed critical trade ties with USA and other global nations, understanding very well that Chinese threat is very real and it will need western block solid military support. Global dependence for advanced chips on Taiwan will ensure that USA has to take clear stand on this issue. It can not wish it away. In the same way, China cannot wish it away. Explosive fault lines are clearly visible and it is a matter to time.

 

So, so many of experts will tell us that India is not doing enough to counter Chinese threat. Some of them will say that Modi is scared of China and S Jaishankar does not know about diplomacy and international relations. What is the reality on the ground? India is taking all steps to counter China on border and waiting for the right opportunity. Latest Chinese overtures to Bhutan notwithstanding, China very well know that it is facing two front challenges and it is not easy for it to subdue the nationalist challenges inside China which were provoked by its leadership as part of one China policy. I am sure at some point; Chinese leadership will feel that it has been cornered. May be it will be too late at that time.