Lessons from the East IV: India @100, Youth @100

These words held good for ~ 2 millennia and still stand tall even today.

The PAST

India, Bharat, Hindustan the pious, the holy, the great motherland was joyous, euphoric, elated, when her children celebrated 75 years of Independence, 75 years of self-rule, 75 years of Self-governance under her flag, with festivities all around.


Several Sacrifices were made - small and big, martyrdom was attained during the Independence movement by innumerable passionate sons of the soil when barbarity and abomination prevailed all across the corners.

The same monstrosity and fiendishness were boldly fronted and braved by every Bhartiya or should I say by every nationalist, nurturing in their hearts and believing in a single dream – Freedom and Absolute Freedom of motherland and nothing else.

Thinking of such situations, such conditions, and such horror stories, one runs in shivers, and one’s head bows down in deep respect to such martyrs & brave countrymen.

Finally, freedom came and now 75 years have passed. Lots have been achieved in these 75 years (Starting from a negligible state to a 3 + trillion USD economy), and lots have been lost including the lives of our great men & soldiers on account of four wars with Pakistan & China, several terrorist attacks on Indian soil, innumerable Naxal assaults over our Brave hearts. (The value, the cost, the price a few pays and less realize that these sacrifices of few have kept the motherland's freedom intact and every Indian safe)

The PRESENT

Despite several foreign forces using an unprecedented quantum of resources to de-rail India’s progress, India in the last three-quarters of a century has built a robust, tenacious, and tough foundation.

With a powerful platform, solid base, and strong underpinning, India is ready to leap forward from being the fifth largest economy in the World to reaching a pole position of being the largest economy in the world in the forthcoming quarter of a century.

The journey behind was arduous but the journey from here will not be on a bed of roses.

The present world is more restless than ever before, two bloody battles are going on currently in the world – Russian-Ukraine War, and the Syrian War. A third one (from media reports – China & Taiwan) seems to be on the anvil and the world is more closed and divided than ever before in modern history.

Yet, against all odds, it's time for India to show the path to the World, the Path of humanity, the path of Collective Well-being, and the path of equanimity.

The FUTURE

Multiple estimates from domestic & International agencies suggest that India is poised to touch a 10 trillion USD mark (nominal) by 2033 and surpass both China & the US to reach the top spot in terms of GDP size (Nominal) by 2047.

The answer lies in the Character of the Country.

The Character of the Country is determined by looking at the consistency and commonality of a lengthier past and not just a short period that reflects an aberration.

Let’s pinpoint this further and make it crisp and fathomable as to how India will become the largest economy in 25 years.

1. Longevity of Survival – All ancient civilizations have vanished, got changed, altered yet Bharat’s culture survived and thrived despite external aggressors. No other civilization from Egyptian, Mesopotamian, ancient Roman, or Greek civilizations are present today, whilst the Indus valley civilization continues to be ruled and controlled by its original Natives or aboriginals.

Indian culture (from times immemorial) had answers to all challenges that one witnesses in the present day. These exist today as well as 3000 years ago.

The answers can be found concerning business, mathematics, astrology, economy, society, community, life longevity, astronomy, medicine, health, mind, laws of the Universe, etc. Practically everything that the world is looking for at the moment. These answers, solutions, and explications exist in the olden Sanatani scriptures. One only needs to un-earth it and decipher it.

Ancient Technology and scriptures that were harmed by years of invasion are now finding their way out, thanks to the passionate inquisitive Youth and wise people of India. This wisdom will not only enable India but will benefit the rest of the World as well.

Our beloved country India is somewhat similar to Lord Hanuman (Our favorite Monkey God, who exists in the Kaliyuga, narration of his story for some other time) who forgot his powers and strengths, and Jambavan, the king of the bears, helped Lord Hanuman to remember and re-discover his powers.

Similarly, India for many decades didn't dig into its hidden knowledge but the time has come, When India is fully cognizant of its untapped potential.

Some examples - For most of 75 years (since India's independence), the age-old art of Yoga, the science of Ayurveda, or the power of the Sanskrit language was unknown to a significant percentage of Indians.

But Western nations like the United States of America and Canada adopted Yoga and its asanas (poses of yoga) quickly, Switzerland, Malaysia, and Korea were swift in adopting Ayurveda to cure ailments without side effects. Germany lapped on Sanskrit as a language not only for computing but to sharpen minds.

India learned and learned it fast and realized the issue – For years it was focused on correcting the Periphery without focusing on the roots. India has recognized the challenge and is slowly and steadily correcting the core.

2. Propelled by two engines – The largest economy in the world, The United States (nominal GDP valued @ ~ 23 trillion USD) is driven by consumption. An example to elucidate it. An average American consumes 31 times the power as compared to an average Indian. Americans constitute 4.2% of the world's population but consume 24% of the world's energy.

Then we have China, the second largest economy in the world, propelled by manufacturing, with a nominal GDP of ~ 17.7 trillion USD in size. China accounts for ~ 30 percent of global manufacturing output.

The US is the Consumer of the World, and China is the manufacturer of the World. Both are dependent on each other and pursue opposite cultures, philosophies as well as ideologies. How long can this arrangement or friendship with benefits last?

Then we have India, having two engines running parallelly - Manufacturing and consumption both working in harmony with an economy size of 3.12 trillion USD (Nominal).

India has a young population of 140 Crores and is growing. Initiatives during covid like Atma Nirbhar Bharat, PLI (Performance Linked Incentive) Schemes, National Master Plan for Multi-modal Connectivity, have fixed the challenges on the manufacturing side, nudging India to get on the fast track of Make in India, Make for India and Make for World. One has already seen that some of these initiatives have fructified into unrivaled success. For example, India has moved up the ladder to emerge as the second largest mobile phone manufacturer, as well as the largest two-wheeler manufacturer in the world.

3. Youth and Demographics - Everyone knows about the Demographic dividend. Reiterating for everyone's benefit. Demographic dividend refers to the growth in an economy that is the result of a change in the age structure of a country's population.

A younger population means cheaper labor, lower cost of production, higher earnings for businesses, and a younger population also mean more men & women in the workforce fending for themselves and lower dependents on each earning member. This thus leads to higher consumption, higher demand, and higher economic growth.

At present, ~ two-thirds of India’s strong 140 Crores population is between 15 and 59 years signifying a low dependency. This low dependency ratio will come down even further in the next couple of decades till about the 2040s.

A similar situation of strong demand and robust economic growth on account of the demographic dividend was witnessed by Japan between 1964 and 2004, a period of hyper-economic progress for Japan that was subsequently followed by a slowdown as the median age of Japanese citizens moved north of forty-five years.

For China, the stage of the low-dependent population started in 1994 and will end by 2031. For Spain, this period of the demographic dividend was shorter from 1991 to 2014.

For India, the median age stands at 28.7 years and this period of favorable demographics just started in 2018 (approx. a year later when India hit the 2 trillion USD mark) and will continue till 2055.
(Source: UNITED Nations Population Fund)

Looking at the above, one can conclusively say that the key to India’s growth will be the Youth, the young population, and the Prime.

But to make sure this demographic dividend does not turn into a demographic catastrophe, the country needs to channel the energy and enthusiasm of youth via structured learning and education, improving healthcare infrastructure, imparting good social and entrepreneurial skills, and building empathy towards society and country.

As Shri Ratan Tata once said,

None can destroy Iron but its own rust, similarly, the only thing that can curtail the two-engine propelled Indian economy is India's complacency, smugness, and gloat.

One only needs to be watchful of one's weaknesses, and give a fillip to one’s strengths and if that is achieved, India will become the Vishwa Guru @ 100.