123 > 161 A strategic masterstroke
It was a strategic masterstroke of BJP’s sharp brains to win its third seat.
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-Kedar Saravate
The ruling alliance had 170+ MLAs on their side comprising Shivsena 56 (1 MLA died), NCP 53 (2 MLAs in jail), Congress 44, and 19 independents, and smaller party MLAs in their fold. Whereas an apposition bench had merely 113 MLAs (106 of BJP and 7 independents) on their side. If you look at the numbers, then it was a wide gap of 59 MLAs. The battlefield was nearly impossible to conquer.
How the voting happens and how MPs get elected for Rajya Sabha or Legislative council?
In the Rajya Sabha or Legislative council, the voting happens on the ballot paper on a preferential basis. The system is known as “Single Transferable Vote”. A certain amount of vote quota is decided based on seats to be elected (e.g., 6) and number of valid votes casted. The candidate who reaches/passes that quota in round one of counting, declared a winner. Every vote has a weightage of 100. In Maharashtra, the full house has a strength of 288 MLAs. In this election, the strength was 287 (as 1 Shivsena MLA died recently). The initial base value for the calculation was 287 but, as 2 NCP MLAs were not able to cast their votes; it was reduced to 285.
Quota = [(285) / (6+1)] + 0.01 = 40.72 [Here 6 stands for number of MPs to be elected]
It means, initially a candidate must win a minimum 41 votes to get elected in the first round of counting. At the time of actual exercise, 1 Shivsena MLA’s vote was invalidated (as he had shown his ballot paper to BJP’s official agent). Hence the number of valid votes was reduced to 284 changing the quota value slightly.
Quota = [(284) / (6+1)] + 0.01 = 40.58
So even after invalidating 1 vote, the candidate had to secure 41 votes in round one. Every vote is considered with a value of 100. Hence the final value of the quota stands 4058. (40.58 * 100 = 4058)
5 candidates were elected in round 1 as below by surpassing the required quota.
Mr. Piyush Goyal (BJP 48 votes)
Dr. Anil Bonde (BJP 48 votes)
Mr. Imran Pratapgadhi (INC 44 votes)
Mr. Praful Patel (NCP 43 votes)
Mr. Sanjay Raut (Shivsena 41 votes) (He got 42 votes but 1 vote got cancelled)
The Other 2 candidates did not complete the quota in the first round and hence they were not elected in the first round.
Mr. Sanjay Pawar (Shivsena 33 votes)
Mr. Dhananjay Mahadik (BJP 27 votes)
Conclusion after round 1:
The real game changer masterstroke of the BJP’s sharp brains starts here. How?
In the case of the “Single Transferable Vote” system the ballot paper has a preferential vote for the candidates. The MLA must cast their vote in preference such as 1,2,3 etc. for the candidates in the fray. What does it mean?
If I am an MLA and I am casting my vote in below fashion, then it means that I wish to have Mr. Goyal as my first preference and Mr. Mahadik as my second preference.
Mr. Piyush Goyal 1
Mr. Dhananjay Mahadik 2
48 BJP MLAs gave such preference to Mr. Goyal, 48 BJP MLAs gave such preference to Mr. Bonde. So a total 96 MLAs gave their second preference vote to Mr. Mahadik.
In the case of Mr. Sanjay Pawar of Shivsena, he got 128-second preference votes. Then where did the real game change?
In the second round, excess first preference votes get transferred first even before the counting of second preferential votes starts.The candidates who got highest first preference votes are considered first and hence BJP's votes were considered first. So giving 48 votes each to its first 2 candidates was a brilliant move.
Mr. Piyush Goyal with 48 votes [Excess votes 4800 - 4058 = 742]
Dr. Anil Bonde with 48 votes [Excess votes 4800 - 4058 = 742]
Mr. Imran Pratapgadhi with 44 votes [Excess votes 4400 - 4058 = 342]
Mr. Praful Patel with 43 votes [Excess votes 4300 - 4058 = 242]
Mr. Sanjay Raut with 41 votes [Excess votes 4100 - 4058 = 42]
Here all these excess votes of 2 winning candidates (whose second preference was Mr. Mahadik) got transferred to their own candidates as all their MLAs (96 of BJP and 128 of SS-NCP-INC) casted their second preference as Mr. Mahadik and Mr. Pawar respectively. So even before counting of second preference votes, the vote values changed miraculously to give the final winning shot.
Mr. Dhananjay Mahadik [2700 + 742 + 742 = 4184] > 4058 quota.
Mr. Sanjay Pawar [3300 + 342 + 242 + 42 = 3926] < 4048 quota.
It means Mr. Dhananjay Mahadik got 41.84 votes and declared winner even before counting second preference votes.
Conclusion after round 2:
Summarily, it was a strategic masterstroke of BJP’s sharp brains to win its third seat. It was just impossible if BJP got merely 113 votes instead of 123 votes. Kudos to the strategist!!
In the recently concluded biennial Rajya Sabha election for the year 2022, there were 6 MPs to be elected to the upper house of the parliament from the state of Maharashtra. With the current strength of each party, it was obvious to have 5 MPs get elected in the first round of counting itself. Being the single largest party, BJP could have bagged 2 MPs whereas other 3 ruling parties could have bagged 1 MP each. BJP had fielded its 3rd candidate and ruling parties had also given their joint candidate for the 6th seat. The real game was to elect the 6th MP in a high-voltage election as the election was not unopposed. 7 candidates were in the fray for 6 seats and hence 1 was sure to get defeated.
The ruling alliance had 170+ MLAs on their side comprising Shivsena 56 (1 MLA died), NCP 53 (2 MLAs in jail), Congress 44, and 19 independents, and smaller party MLAs in their fold. Whereas an apposition bench had merely 113 MLAs (106 of BJP and 7 independents) on their side. If you look at the numbers, then it was a wide gap of 59 MLAs. The battlefield was nearly impossible to conquer.
How the voting happens and how MPs get elected for Rajya Sabha or Legislative council?
In the Rajya Sabha or Legislative council, the voting happens on the ballot paper on a preferential basis. The system is known as “Single Transferable Vote”. A certain amount of vote quota is decided based on seats to be elected (e.g., 6) and number of valid votes casted. The candidate who reaches/passes that quota in round one of counting, declared a winner. Every vote has a weightage of 100. In Maharashtra, the full house has a strength of 288 MLAs. In this election, the strength was 287 (as 1 Shivsena MLA died recently). The initial base value for the calculation was 287 but, as 2 NCP MLAs were not able to cast their votes; it was reduced to 285.
Quota = [(285) / (6+1)] + 0.01 = 40.72 [Here 6 stands for number of MPs to be elected]
It means, initially a candidate must win a minimum 41 votes to get elected in the first round of counting. At the time of actual exercise, 1 Shivsena MLA’s vote was invalidated (as he had shown his ballot paper to BJP’s official agent). Hence the number of valid votes was reduced to 284 changing the quota value slightly.
Quota = [(284) / (6+1)] + 0.01 = 40.58
So even after invalidating 1 vote, the candidate had to secure 41 votes in round one. Every vote is considered with a value of 100. Hence the final value of the quota stands 4058. (40.58 * 100 = 4058)
5 candidates were elected in round 1 as below by surpassing the required quota.
Mr. Piyush Goyal (BJP 48 votes)
Dr. Anil Bonde (BJP 48 votes)
Mr. Imran Pratapgadhi (INC 44 votes)
Mr. Praful Patel (NCP 43 votes)
Mr. Sanjay Raut (Shivsena 41 votes) (He got 42 votes but 1 vote got cancelled)
The Other 2 candidates did not complete the quota in the first round and hence they were not elected in the first round.
Mr. Sanjay Pawar (Shivsena 33 votes)
Mr. Dhananjay Mahadik (BJP 27 votes)
Conclusion after round 1:
- In total, 3 BJP candidates got 123 first preference votes which are 10 more than their original strength of 113. It means, 10 MLAs of ruling alliance cross-voted. You cannot guess their names so easily.
- In total, 4 ruling party candidates got 161 first preference votes whereas they were expecting it to be a minimum 171 votes.
- Mr. Dhananjay Mahadik of BJP is 14 less than the quota (41 - 27 = 14)
- Mr. Sanjay Pawar of Shivsena is 8 less than the quota (41 – 33 = 8)
- 2 candidates cannot be declared as a winner and we need another round of counting.
- Mr. Sanjay Raut of Shivsena would have lost the election if 1 more vote got invalidated in the first round as he had no second preference votes on his side.
The real game changer masterstroke of the BJP’s sharp brains starts here. How?
In the case of the “Single Transferable Vote” system the ballot paper has a preferential vote for the candidates. The MLA must cast their vote in preference such as 1,2,3 etc. for the candidates in the fray. What does it mean?
If I am an MLA and I am casting my vote in below fashion, then it means that I wish to have Mr. Goyal as my first preference and Mr. Mahadik as my second preference.
Mr. Piyush Goyal 1
Mr. Dhananjay Mahadik 2
48 BJP MLAs gave such preference to Mr. Goyal, 48 BJP MLAs gave such preference to Mr. Bonde. So a total 96 MLAs gave their second preference vote to Mr. Mahadik.
In the case of Mr. Sanjay Pawar of Shivsena, he got 128-second preference votes. Then where did the real game change?
In the second round, excess first preference votes get transferred first even before the counting of second preferential votes starts.The candidates who got highest first preference votes are considered first and hence BJP's votes were considered first. So giving 48 votes each to its first 2 candidates was a brilliant move.
Mr. Piyush Goyal with 48 votes [Excess votes 4800 - 4058 = 742]
Dr. Anil Bonde with 48 votes [Excess votes 4800 - 4058 = 742]
Mr. Imran Pratapgadhi with 44 votes [Excess votes 4400 - 4058 = 342]
Mr. Praful Patel with 43 votes [Excess votes 4300 - 4058 = 242]
Mr. Sanjay Raut with 41 votes [Excess votes 4100 - 4058 = 42]
Here all these excess votes of 2 winning candidates (whose second preference was Mr. Mahadik) got transferred to their own candidates as all their MLAs (96 of BJP and 128 of SS-NCP-INC) casted their second preference as Mr. Mahadik and Mr. Pawar respectively. So even before counting of second preference votes, the vote values changed miraculously to give the final winning shot.
Mr. Dhananjay Mahadik [2700 + 742 + 742 = 4184] > 4058 quota.
Mr. Sanjay Pawar [3300 + 342 + 242 + 42 = 3926] < 4048 quota.
It means Mr. Dhananjay Mahadik got 41.84 votes and declared winner even before counting second preference votes.
Conclusion after round 2:
- BJP played its card very smartly and made sure that the need for counting second preference votes would not arise.
- SS-NCP-INC played safely fearing backstabbing by their own MLAs by increasing first preference votes to 43,44 etc.
- Cross voting of 10 MLAs cost dearly to the ruling alliance.
- BJP would have won all 3 candidates in first round itself had it been 41 votes each casted to their 3 candidates. But the BJP avoided it and played a safe game.
- If 3 BJP votes had been invalidated, BJP would have lost its third candidate certainly as it did not have sufficient second preference votes (123 vs 161).
- Even if Shivsena’s 1 vote would not have been cancelled, BJP could have won third seat. [3926 + 100 = 4026] < 4058 quota < 4184
- Even if Shivsena’s 1 vote would not have been cancelled and Mr. Navab Malik had casted his vote, BJP could have won third seat. [3926 + 100 + 100 = 4126] < 4058 quota < 4184
Summarily, it was a strategic masterstroke of BJP’s sharp brains to win its third seat. It was just impossible if BJP got merely 113 votes instead of 123 votes. Kudos to the strategist!!