How important are the Mokama and Gopalganj by-polls?

Patna, Nov 02: The November 3 by-polls for Mokama and Gopalganj assembly seats, campaigning for which ended Tuesday evening, will be the first electoral face-off between the ruling Grand Alliance (GA) and the Opposition BJP in Bihar after the change of government in August this year, when chief minister Nitish Kumar’s party JD-U snapped ties with the saffron party and aligned with Lalu Prasad’s RJD-led alliance, comprising Congress and other parties, to form a new government.

 

 

 

In Mokama, there is a straight contest between GA-backed RJD candidate Neelam Devi, wife of former MLA and strongman Anant Singh, and Sonam Devi, wife of Nalin Ranjan Sharma alias Lallan Singh, a local leader with clout.

 

 

 

The seat fell vacant earlier this year after Anant Singh was disqualified as a member of the legislative assembly (MLA) following his conviction in a case of arms recovery. He is currently in jail. Lallan Singh, a muscleman, had unsuccessfully contested against Anant Singh in the 2005 assembly polls while his wife Sonam Devi had contested unsuccessfully against Anant Singh in the 2010 assembly polls. Both the candidates here belong to the Bhumihar community and political observers foresee a split in votes, which could make Yadavs, extremely backward classes, and Muslims a key deciding factor. The BJP, which is contesting the seats almost after two decades, launched a campaign blitzkrieg by Suraj Bhan Singh, a former MP and former local MLA, who is now with the Lok Janshakti Party’s splinter group headed by Pashupati Paras. Suraj Bhan Singh, with a long history sheet in crime, had made his electoral debut in the 2000 assembly elections when he wrested the Mokama seat by an astounding margin, contesting as an Independent and defeating Anant Singh’s elder brother Dilip Singh, a minister in the then RJD government. In Gopalganj, BJP has fielded Kusum Devi, whose husband Subhash Singh’s death necessitated the by-poll. Subhash Singh, a former minister, had represented the seat four times. Kusum Devi is locked in a triangular contest between RJD’s Mohan Prasad Gupta and Bahujan Samaj Party’s Indira Yadav, wife of former Gopalganj MP Anirudh Prasad alias Sadhu Yadav, who is the son-in-law of RJD chief Lalu Prasad. Here, stakes are high for BJP, which held the seat. K K Singh, a school teacher in Gopalganj, says the contest could be a close finish as RJD-JD(U) realignment had altered the caste equations in the constituency where Rajputs, Muslims and Yadavs, and OBCs as well Bhumihars have sizable vote base. He said RJD, having fielded a Vaishya candidate, has made the contest more challenging as chances of a split among Vaishya voters is possible in the community which has traditionally been aligned with BJP. Similarly, BSP candidate Indira Yadav could split Yadav votes, which could damage RJD. In the 2020 assembly polls, Sadhu Yadav himself polled around 38,000 votes, finishing second to winner Subash Singh of the BJP.

 

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“The result of the bypolls would have more of a psychological impact on BJP and the ruling GA. It would boost the morale of workers on both sides ahead of the 2024 parliamentary polls. For BJP, the contest is important as it wants to send across a message that it can take on the ruling GA on its own. For the GA, a win would be an endorsement of CM Nitish Kumar’s stand to unite all anti-BJP forces,” said political analyst Nawal Kishore Choudhary. The counting of votes would be held on November 6.