Results of Assembly Elections 2021 – What do they signify
Though, media has a habit of calling every election including by-elections and panchayat elections as a referendum for Modi, I believed that these elections of 2021 were indeed crucial in moulding the politics of coming years leading to 2024 General Elections. I had written about significance of the current round of elections on 22nd March. (https://www.newsbharati.com//Encyc/2021/3/22/Elections-2021-For-whom-does-the-bell-toll-.html) The following is the summary that I had given in the said article -
Coming back to BJP, what could be its goals in these elections? I am not from BJP so I can only guess BJP’s approach to these elections. But, as a political observer, I would consider following results as indicators of BJP’s success –
1. Majority in Assam – to put a stamp of authority on success of its politics of development pursued with vigour with stress on cultural nationalism. It would mean acceptance of its CAA policy.
2. Majority in Bengal – gaining majority would be the ultimate tribute to its cadre and the central leadership of BJP. It will change the entire political scenario not just of the East but the national politics. If it becomes the principal opposition party, pushing out the erstwhile powerful parties - Congress and Communists- to the fringe and becoming the principal pole of Bengal politics. This will be the biggest upset in seven decades of democracy in India and open Odisha and even affect Andhra Pradesh politics.
3. Majority in Pudhuchery – it could be a dream come true for BJP. But, even if it cannot, it will be the first major push into the Dravidian politics.
4. Sizable presence in Tamil Nadu – It could spell the end of Dravidian divisive and hate politics and return to saner grounds of Kamaraj days or even MGR days. Return of rationality against irrational Dravid Aryan divide. It will be like putting its foot in the door to move into a position in next elections where it can become an important factor in Tamilnadu politics.
5. Sizable presence in Kerala – It could mean the end of last minute polarization based on TINA factor between the Communists and the Congress led fronts. It would mean finding a wedge into Kerala politics that would allow it to create a niche for the third force which is there in Kerala but not successful in elections so far.
You will find that each of these projections have been confirmed by the events that have unfolded today. Except Kerala, where it could not make a major dent, the results have been on expected lines. I foresee major changes in politics of South, specially, Tamil Nadu in coming 5 years, with diminishing returns for hateful Dravidian politics.
What do the results signify?
I have noted in various times in past few days thatif Mamata Banerjee wins Bengal, she will try to claim the mantle of the leader of any attempted unified national opposition alliance. Congress has lost relevance. Earlier too no opposition party wished to ally with Rahul Gandhi-led Congress party. The results have proven that with Rahul as a leader, it is a dead-weight for any alliance. Other regional parties have done poorly, except Naveen Patnaik, and he has no interest in opposition front. That opens up the possibilities for Mamata. We will see renewed efforts at forging an alliance of opposition groups. And she has every right to stake the claim as she has scored an emphatic win over BJP, despite huge gains by BJP.
However, if Mamata wishes to project herself as the leader of unified opposition she will have to present the image of a benevolent and inclusive leader, not the vengeful leader whose cadre can wreck havoc at any pretext. Her highly volatile nature, breaking of all norms of a ruling CM who is supposed to uphold the Constitution of India,raising doubts about various the democratic institutions and her insider/outsider rhetoric etc. can’t help her cement her position as a truly national leader. She will have to refashion her image. This means we can hope to see no or much less violence. We will come to know in coming 2-3 days whether my hope becomes a reality.
Despite BJP doing very well as per its set goals, the overhyping of Bengal elections will be projected as a failure of the BJP leadership. With full backing of Left-‘secular’ media and its international networks, two issues will be brought to boil - Covid and Farmers’ agitation.
No one can deny the visible pain of second wave of Covid, whatever may be the justification and true position. Post-truth propaganda will see to it that Center and Modiji take all the blame and opposition ruled state governments go scot-free. This enormous problem will be amplified to defame India as has been happening for last two weeks, though the situation in West had and has been worse.
Farmers’ agitation which was in limbo and leaders were waiting for these elections results will get a renewed push now. Every effort to create anarchy and chaos will be made, I fear. Situations will be created somehow to force the government to take some steps that can be termed oppressive, though no force or oppression has been let lose so far. Any sign of smallest form of force by the government will be used to spark violence. These opposition and international lobbies’ games can spiral out of control with able instigation by some opposition leaders and, ofcourse, backing of neo-left lobby and their international network.
These two are the present and clear dangers that Modi government will face. The success of the opposition in pushing the idea of Center being solely responsible for the weaknesses on health front, though it is a state subject; and opposition state governments’ blatant refusal to follow the policies even on issues like vaccination and failure in installing Oxygen plants despite warnings and central grants shows the critical weakness in communication of BJP as a party. This failure will be further felt in coming days. Unfortunately, no leader at any level is ready to accept that BJP has a communication problem.
BJP’s success in creating a strong base among deprived sections and SC-ST classes is remarkable and breaks the media created image of being a party of middle class. But, so is its failure in taking along the middle and business class in Bengal that has been its backbone. For a party that is branded as middle class and pro-business party, it is a grave signal that it failed to score well in ‘bhadralok’ society. The simmering discontent that BJP refuses to acknowledge, that was present even before Covid set in; needs to be addressed by the BJP leadership and government. No growing party hurts and surrenders its loyal base.
There will be reams of analyses about these elections. There are more issues that one can talk about. However, to my mind these are top of the mind pointers that will impact the coming period. Covid and Farmers – these two issues have offered new tools for creating unrest. I foresee dangerous times ahead.