Elections 2021 – For whom does the bell toll?

Due to various reasons, we are blessed with the continuous excitement of elections at the state level at regular intervals, prompting the opposition and critics to question any BJP move as “why now?”. As if that is not enough, since BJP became the biggest political party, even Zilla and panchayat elections have become the barometer of Modi Ji's popularity. Each election, including by-elections, is claimed as a test for BJP. If BJP's victory margin is reduced or the total tally is shrunk by a couple of seats, it is supposed to be an indicator of BJP’s falling popularity and a moral victory for Congress and sundry other parties. However, the current elections are, indeed, significant. They will show, for whom the bell tolls.

According to political pundits, Assam is the state that BJP cannot afford to lose because it is its springboard for the entire East and North East. Bengal must be won because BJP has raised its stakes too high. BJP has hardly any presence in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Puducherry. But it is being claimed by many that BJP must win with allies or it might stare at 2024 with trepidation. This is a simplistic view that is focused only on BJP’s fate as if no other party has anything at stake.

Now, let us look at the scenario from an opposition perspective. Congress has tied up with rank communal and illegal immigration supporting party AIUDF in Assam. What happens if it still loses Assam? End of the road for Congress? For Nehru family? What if TMC loses Bengal? The opposition will lose an opposition leader who could be central to any opposition formation, whether second or third front. It will weaken the role of regional parties in national elections. It will be the end of the road for Mamata. In the deep South, will it matter if BJP again draws a blank or gets just a little traction? No. It will be at square one, nothing more. But if Congress loses Puducherry and Kerala it will be a huge blow to Congress and its communal politics. If Communists lose, then it is the end of the road for Communists. With the fig leaf of the last state under its rule dropping, it will have nowhere to hide its face. Overground Communism would wither away.

What I mean to say is, these elections are much more critical to the opposition than to BJP, though it always fights to win. BJP is not a feudal or family-based party that cannot survive a defeat. It is an organization-based party where new leaders emerge from the grassroots. It looks at changes with a long-term generational view, not from a 5-year perspective. Communist parties are out of sync with the national mood, led by geriatric leadership. There are not enough young emerging stars.

Coming back to BJP, what could be its goals in these elections? I am not from BJP so I can only guess BJP’s approach to these elections. But, as a political observer, I would consider the following results as indicators of BJP’s success –

1. Majority in Assam – to put a stamp of authority on the success of its politics of development pursued with vigor with stress on cultural nationalism. It would mean acceptance of its CAA policy.

2. Majority in Bengal – gaining majority would be the ultimate tribute to its cadre and the central leadership of BJP. It will change the entire political scenario not just of the East but the national politics. If it becomes the principal opposition party, pushing out the erstwhile powerful parties - Congress and Communists- to the fringe and becoming the principal pole of Bengal politics. This will be the biggest upset in seven decades of democracy in India and open Odisha and even affect Andhra Pradesh politics.

3. Majority in Puducherry – it could be a dream come true for BJP. But, even if it cannot, it will the first major push into Dravidian politics.

4. Sizable presence in Tamil Nadu – It could spell the end of Dravidianist divisive and hate politics and return to saner grounds of Kamaraj days or even MGR days. Return of rationality against irrational Dravid Aryan divide. It will be like putting its foot in the door to move into a position in the next elections where it can become an important factor in Tamilnadu politics.

5. Sizable presence in Kerala – It could mean the end of last-minute polarization based on the TINA factor between the Communists and the Congress-led fronts. It would mean finding a wedge into Kerala politics that would allow it to create a niche for the third force which is there in Kerala but not successful in elections so far.

Thus, we see that Assam is the only state which BJP must win to prove its governance model and firm footprint in North East. A loss here can be termed a major ‘setback’ by the critics. In all other states, it has nothing to lose. It has a lot to gain. On the other hand, the opposition in all the states going to poll has very high stakes and everything to lose if it cannot win decisively in Assam and Bengal, and cannot stop BJP from gaining a foothold. If BJP can establish a beachhead in the deep south, BJP it will sail through in 2024.