National Monsoon Mission: Climate Prediction Models become operational
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New Delhi, Feb 11: The Ministry of Earth Sciences has developed the state-of-the-art weather and climate prediction models under the Monsoon Mission, which are in operational use now. These models include models for short range to medium range of 1-10 days, extended range of 10 days to 30 days and seasonal of up to one season. The models developed under the National Monsoon Mission (NMM) have shown very high skill in predicting important weather events on different time scales during the last 3 years.
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The overall objective of NMM is to improve the monsoon prediction over India on all time scales and hence it is implemented for the whole country which includes all the States and UTs. The Monsoon Mission targets to develop a seamless prediction system using the Monsoon Mission Model, on different time scales, like Seasonal (for whole Monsoon season), the extended range of up to 4 weeks and the Short range prediction of up to 5 days. The NMM works to initiate and coordinate working partnership between Indian and foreign institutes, in order to develop a system for prediction of extremes and climate applications.
The NMM targets to develop and implement system for climate applications having social impacts, such as agriculture, flood forecast, extreme events forecast, wind energy and others. Advanced data assimilation system for preparing high quality data for model predictions is also one of the aims of the mission.
Since the last three years, the National Monsoon Mission has achieved several of its assets. The mission has been successful in setting up an advanced prediction system for Seasonal prediction, Extended range prediction and Very high-resolution Short-range prediction, along with commissioning of a Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) for short and medium range prediction at 12 km. A remarkable improvement in the skill of the forecasts especially in the short to medium range has been noticed due to the mission.
The Cyclone track and intensity prediction has also shown a steady improvement over the last three years. The operationalization of Monsoon Mission dynamical model (MMCFS) to prepare operational seasonal forecast of monsoon rainfall and temperatures during the hot and cold weather seasons all over India was achieved. The use of MMCFS and extended range prediction system for preparing regional seasonal forecast outlook for South Asia under WMO recognized Regional Climate Center and South Asia Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF)activities has also been executed.
The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has received several project proposals from various International institutes, for funding through Monsoon Mission. The Scientific Review and Monitoring Committee (SRMC) of the National Monsoon Mission has reviewed the proposals and recommended the ones, which are relevant to the Monsoon Mission objectives and useful for prediction of Indian Monsoon and extreme weather conditions.