Phase 3: status quo or decisive local swing?

Unless there is some decisive swing for or against BJP, the 2014 vote share projected as 2019 alliance shows status quo with exchange of few seats. As expected the BJP can lose some seats in UP and gain some in Orissa and Bihar. However, apart from the swing factor, there are interesting twists and turns in some areas. In Firozabad, the split of votes in Mulayam Singh family can be decisive. In Sambalpur of Orissa the margin between BJP and BJD was very less in 2014. This is one of the seats the BJP is likely to gain along with a clean sweep in Bihar.

 

The situation in Kerala can fluctuate due to the swing factors of Shabarimala, impact of Rahul gandhi’s candidature and the left consolidation. If BJP can open its account even with one win, then that is going to change the arithmetic of Kerala forever.

 

  (This is an interactive map. Click on the year or the constituency to see the details)

 

As the election progresses, the trends in actual swings are getting more important. In our next release we will give the interactive map with swing factors for users to make their own predictions.