Introduction:- Today North Korean dictator and Communist leader Kim Jong Un crossed over Demilitarize Zone- DMZ to meet South Korean President Moon Jae-in at Panmunjom. This is an unprecedented event as both Koreans are consistently on the verge of bloody war since Korean Armistice in 1953. Kim Jong-Trump summit is also in conduit effectively facilitated by South Koreans, in next month. The events are surprising and moreover shocking for China, which is feeling the heat of US trade war and increasing resistance to Jinping’s signature Belt and Road Initiative from Europe, USA and India. In case Korean bonhomie increases, chances of China becoming obsolete in Korean Peninsula looms large.
Here is a quick look at the recent past and future scenario of emerging situations in and around Korean Peninsula and its fallout on China.
Recent diplomatic developments are rearranging sphere of influences in Korean Peninsula, as of now, if everything goes as per the recent events; Chinese seems to be biggest losers in the game as North Korea is inching towards the USA in historic events that are taking shape since last few months.
Since the end of Korean War, Communist North Korea and democratic South Korea were in diagonally opposite camps. North in Soviet entente and South in US lead alliance. North Korea remained hegemonic family ruled Communist state treading the altogether different path of reckless militarization and nuclearization policies, suppressing any dissent. South Korea became a booming economy with tremendous technological development.
Korean border separating North and South is one of the heavily manned international borders in the world with high-density military pickets and posts.
Though, North Korea under dynastic Kim family developed potent missile, nuclear and military power with the help of Soviet Russians and China, it lagged behind in developing its economy, usually squeezed by US-led international sanctions, embargoes and trade barriers imposed by UNO, to demoralize North Korea and to force it to abandon its military nuclear program.
Last year American and Korean belligerent, warmongering rhetoric placed the Korean Peninsula on the brinks of nuclear-military conflict.
But situation drastically changed within last few months and diplomatic rush and many unforeseen incidences, initiatives, declarations and set of positive chain reactions has put Koreans and Americans on the totally different page, How?
Where the Trouble Started?
In this episode, we won’t delve deep into the history of US-Korea conflict as it is a vast issue to take fast look and much has been contributed by various sources in this regard. It would be appropriate and relevant to focus and elaborate events that took place in last one year, especially after hawkish US president Donald Trump reached the help of The White House.
During the runner-up of his US Presidential campaign, Trump had vowed to take bellicose North Korea and Iran head on and repeatedly lashed out at Barrack Obama for falling prey of bullying tactics of North Korea and getting trapped in Iranian diplomatic trap by offering much more to Persians in Iran-US Nuclear Deal.
US-South Korea military drill has irked North Korea’s Kim Jong and he threatened the US with merciless retaliation if aggressive military drills are conducted in its vicinity. To add teeth to its warning North Korea has broadcasted a propaganda video of its open warning to fire rockets near the distant US territory, largely military facility of Guam. North Koreans were warning the US not to conduct aggressive military drills. In a blatant warning video depicted Donald Trump at war cemetery observing graves of military personnel and Vice President Mike Pence engulfed in flames. In the video, North Koreans are threatening to launch Hwasong-12 missiles at American island military base.
The video threatening Guam attack triggered the heavy exchange of intimidating words and verbal salvos from Trump and Kim Jong. In response to the threat, Trump warned Kim Jong to retaliate with Fire and Fury and military response which world has never seen before!
Trump’s “Fire and Fury” warning has raised temperatures in Korean Peninsula beyond imagination. Even world sunk in a deep worry assuming that any Korea-US military confrontation would turn nuclear, as far as an existential threat to North Korea vis-à-vis USA military power is concerned. North Korea has no match with US military power, so it was a foregone conclusion that in case of its very existence is threatened, Kim Jong would most likely use its nukes to inflict as much as damage to South Korea, Japan and US mainland.
Later North Korea tested its ICBM which landed in Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone in Japan Sea. The missile launched convinced US-Japan-South Korea that Kim Jong is well determined to launch a fiery missile strike on US territory of Guam. Amid rising tensions, US Naval fleet moved towards Korea as a show of strength.
Following series of a missile fired in May, in the first week of June 2017, the UN Security Council unanimously passed a resolution to impose new sanctions against North Korea aimed at thwarting Pyongyang's nuclear and missile technology.
After UNSC resolution, on June 8, North Korea test-fired multiple anti-ship missiles in Korean Sea to intimidate US Navy which might inch towards North Korea in near future amid rising tensions. Even though South Korea had declared that it was suspending deployment of the US supplied THAAD missile defence system; being planned to destroy inbound North Korea missiles in case of military hostilities.
In the first week of July 2018, North Korea declared first successful test of a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable to "reach anywhere in the world." The technological feat achieved as Trump spoke with Japanese and Chinese heads regarding the North Korean threat.
The US and South Korea immediately responded with joint missile drill to counter the North Korean threat.
Trump started aggressively urging China to do more to keep away Kim Jong from developing nukes and doing mad acts.
China caught in a dilemma whether to act against North Korea or to keep guarding its madness. But at the end of the year 2017, some historic events unfolded in Pyongyang that reversed the wheels towards positivity.
Kim Jong’s Historic Announcement!
On 29th November 2017, North Korea test-fired ICBM which travelled distance of 1000 KM and surprised many Korea watchers. The situation was clearly volatile. But suddenly Kim Jong declared that North is ready to send athletes to Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea.
Reciprocating Kim’s gesture The America and South Korea agreed, at least for time being to postpone joint military exercises until the conclusion of Winter Olympics and Paralympics, where North Koreans were to take part.
On January 9th, 2018 Koreans during ministerial parleys agreed to send athletes to South. Then followed most stunning development in Korean history when athletes from both Korean nations marched under unified Korean flag at the inaugural ceremony of Olympics.
High-Level Meeting between Kim Yo-jong, sister and close aide to Kim Jong-un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in concluded in Seoul on February 10, 2018, and at the same meeting, the North Koreas extended an invitation to Moon to visit North Korea. The newfound bonhomie between arch rival but mono-ethnic Koreans has shocked and surprised the world.On February 25th, 2018 High-level North Korean delegation visited South Korea for the Olympic closing ceremony and meeting conducted with North Korean president Moon in Pyeongchang. Within next 2 weeks, a special envoy from South visited North Korea and held a meeting with Kim Jong. On March 6th, 2018 South Korean presidential office revealed the outcome of the South’s envoy meeting with Kim Jong Un and the agreement that followed to hold a summit meeting between the North and South Koreas in April.
On March 8th, 2018 senior South Korean official met Trump at The White House Trump and apprised him of their meeting with Kim, later Trump declared that he would meet Kim by May 2018 to discuss permanent denuclearization of North Korea.
China Caught in a Sheer Surprise
As soon as Trump announced that he is going to meet Kim Jong, China was the biggest loser in Great Korean Game! China was a sole patron of North Korea for years and it was the biggest trade partner with as much as 85% of imports and exports with North Korea. It means, if Chinese stops selling and buying to North Korea, their economy would be at knees. They have common borders and have historic relations.
In a hurried response to Trump's meeting plan to Kim Jong, China put its whole diplomatic apparatus in service and arranged Kim Jong’s emergency visit to Beijing. Kim Jong, who is aerophobic and don’t travel by air reached Beijing in a specially designed armoured train on March 26th, 2018.
The meeting concluded between Kim Jong and Chinese president Xi Jinping, but as expected no details revealed to media.
What Made China So Anxious?
If we go by the statistics of China-North Korea trade, then we will come to know, what makes China perturb by news of Trump’s scheduled meeting with Kim Jong.
As per the figures, Chinese share in North Korea’s imports is about 85% and it exports share with respect to total exports is 83%.
Donald Trump is a hardcore trader. Once he struck deal with North Korea, there is great possibility that the US would rapidly eat up Chinese trade in North Korea with carrot and stick approach.
Also being a natural neighbour of China, North Koreans have worried for Chinese expansionism and being trapped in Beijing’s financial and geographic traps, once gets closer to it. So North Koreans are trying to strike a deal with three arch rivals Japan-US-South Korea which are in larger military alliance headed by the US and all have democratic governance. So their domestic politics is of great help should respective governments play foul game with North Korea. Such a check and balances and counter-guarantees can’t be expected from China, which is governed by ruthless autocratic Communist Party. Koreans being on the same page like China knows well the power play and functioning of the party governed country.
Options for China post-Trump- Kim Summit
Chinese are caught off guard in March when Trump tweeted about his possible summit with Kim Jong Un. The Americans, especially Donald Trump was putting pressure on China to do more for mitigating North Korea’s threats to the US and its allies. So Chinese were assuming that there is the only way for Americans and the world to negotiate with North Korea and that is Beijing Channel.
But hectic diplomatic exercise by South Korea and exemplary maturity and wisdom exhibited by both Koreans, especially Kim Jong has snatched Chinese Initiative and bankrupted Beijing of diplomatic avenues in a single stroke. Now China has to toil hard to maintain its relevance in Korean Peninsula. The following scenarios are most likely to emerge in days or weeks to come.
1-China would try its best to pursue North Korea to put unconvincing terms and conditions as quid pro quo for abandoning its nuclear program. In that case Trump- Kim talks would collapse and Kim would be dragged into Chinese orbit once again with very limited scope for escape in near future.
2- China would create an atmosphere of distrust with certain overt and covert actions in and around Korea to see Trump- Kim summit being postponed or cancelled. It might employ tactics like assassinations, targeted killings, sabotage of those vehemently opposing Kim Jong’s regime. Such rough acts would be attributed to Kim Jong and his credibility as a responsible player in diplomacy would take hit inviting worldwide criticism. In that case, it would be difficult for Trump to hold talks with Kim.
3- Beijing would lure Kim Jong to press for Chinese involvement in Kim-Trump summit, for which Trump won’t easily agree and summit would collapse without substantial gains.
4- Chinese would generate public opinion within America, through its Influence Operation apparatus United Front Works Department against Trump’s deal with Kim Jong. UFWD would employ its deep assets within the USA to convince Americans that instead of mitigating Kim Jong’s nuclear threat to the USA, Trump is lavishly throwing concessions at North Korean and Americans are at more vulnerable to nuclear strikes than ever before.
5- Even if Trump- Korea achieves a breakthrough in the proposed summit, China would refuse to accept its outcome and compel both parties to include China as one of the parties in the process. Such move could collapse the talks. China would seek compensation and counter-guarantees from the USA for possible trade losses incurred to China should Kim-Trump strikes a successful deal.
Conclusion
Trump and Kim Jong both are well committed so far to see their proposed summit emerges as a grand success. But biggest stakeholder in the process. Next to the USA is China. Chinese have much more to contribute to make or break this summit. As one analyst mentioned,
“Chinese are well concerned that talks between Kim Jong and Donald Trump will actually emerge fruitfully. China's fundamental strategy with North Korea is to let the Korean issue turn into the biggest crisis, engendered by Korea’s missile and nuclear program. China would then jump on the bandwagon and resolve it by coercive diplomatic or military or both means, which dooms fit at that time”
But in case of Trump-Kim Jong talks becomes successful, then China would be the biggest loser, with no initiative left in hand and looming threat of ceding its trade to USA post-summit. So, it would be interesting for China watchers to see Chinese words, acts and deeds in next few days’ vis-à-vis proposed talks.
Let’s Wait and Watch.