BJP is game changer in Kerala state elections this time
Kerala today is undergoing a big political churning. Never before have we witnessed the kind of buzz in favour of ‘Lotus’ in this state. This enthusiasm for the BJP in itself is an indication that the people are fed up with the two fronts that ruled the state so far and are looking for an alternative. It is early to predict how many seats the NDA will win as a consequence of this political tremor.
The huge turnout in the rallies addressed by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi is indicative of the popularity of the BJP in the state. Places like Palghat, Kuttanad, Tripunithura and Tiruvanandapuram have never before witnessed the kind of political rallies as those addressed by Modi.
In Tiruvanandapuram, the rally addressed by Sonia Gandhi, a day after the BJP rally could not get even one third the crowd that Modi attracted in his rally. Modi has emerged the biggest crowd puller in Kerala in this election.
Other BJP leaders like Home Minister Rajnath Singh, HRD Minister Smriti Irani and Urban Development Minister Venkaiah Naidu also received enthusiastic reception wherever they went on the campaign trail. This is a sea change in the poll scene in Kerala as compared to previous elections. The BJP used to be the ‘also ran’ trying desperately to collect all party sympathisers’ vote and save security deposit. This has dramatically changed this round.
People come to listen to BJP leaders in large numbers because they consider BJP as an option to vote. The focus of political discourse this time for both the LDF and UDF is the BJP and Modi. They are united in trying to stop BJP from entering the assembly. In more than 40 of the total 140 seats the BJP is in a strong triangular fight with a good chance of winning some and standing second in many others. There is an undercurrent of pro-BJP sentiment in most parts of the state. In other seats, the votes polled by the BJP will determine the fate of the other two fronts.
In places like Kasarkode, Manjeswaram, Kangangad, Sultan Batheri, Palghat, Malampuzha, Kodumgallur, Udumban chola, Kuttanad, Punjar, Chengannur, Ettumanur, Aranmula, Ranni, Tiruvanandapuram, Kattakada, Kovalam, Nemam, Vattiyur Kav etc. spread across the state from north to south the BJP candidates pose serious threat to the other two fronts with a good chance of winning many. The BJP vote share is likely to cross 20 per cent this time.
The BJP campaign and presence is also strong this time. Almost all central leaders of the party have campaigned. Seeing the massive response to BJP leaders, the Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi, who failed to draw a big crowd in the first round, cancelled his second leg of the campaign. Both the UDF and the LDF are showing visible signs of panic seeing the response to BJP. The BJP is not lagging behind in propaganda material, advertising, and social media presence. The party is resource-rich too this time. These are major shifts one could see as compared to previous rounds. The media too is taking the BJP seriously as an alternative.
The UDF and the LDF are trying to consolidate the minority vote behind them by communally polarising them against the BJP. How far will they succeed in this will determine the outcome. In a state where almost 48 percent of the population belong to the minority communities this consolidation could be decisive mainly because all these years they controlled all the levers of power. The mandate, this time, could also be a rejection of this politics. One thing is certain; politics in Kerala will never be the same again.
That the BJP has positioned itself as a viable choice, that there are predictions of a hung assembly because of BJP presence and that all calculations of the LDF and UDF have gone haywire prove how well entrenched the BJP has become in the mass psyche. What are the issues that created this political churning?
How different is the BJP from other parties? To call BJP a Hindu party or communal is an admission of the ideological bankruptcy of its opponents. Instead of coming up with a modern, largely acceptable agenda, BJP’s enemies find solace in demonizing it. They resort to a grand alliance to stop BJP in a clear confession that politics in India has become BJP centric.
For almost five decades Indian polity was unipolar and multipolar with Congress holding centre stage. The emergence of the BJP has changed all this. The Communists and the Congress are in terminal crisis with both finding comfort in each other’s embrace as witnessed in West Bengal and in Parliament. Still, to woo the Muslim voters from the Congress and to cover up the Bengal proclivity Left leaders these days talk ad nauseam of a BJP-UDF secret understanding. Nobody believes this but it exposes CPM’s nervousness.
This election is unique that for the first time in five decades there is a choice other than the UDF and LDF before the voters. The people here are showing tremendous curiosity towards the alternative the BJP has presented. Here, one factor is the immense popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The other and more solid point is the BJP track record. What has made credible activists like C K Janu or cricketer Srishanth or superstar Suresh Gopi to root for the BJP? It only proves the party is becoming acceptable to sections beyond its traditional support base. For long it used to be said that Keralites will never accept the BJP. The BJP that was successful in winning seats in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Jammu and Kashmir and North-east is a pan-Indian party. But so far it has not been able to open its account in Kerala.
The good performance of the two years of Narendra Modi government has created huge goodwill. People have seen West Bengal after 35 years of Communist rule. Congress rule in the state and the centre is also before the people. Everything that the Modi government is attempting to do is a vocal articulation of the things Congress failed to do when in power. The states under the BJP rule today are in the forefront in economic development, agricultural growth, better connectivity, electrification and water supply.
Narendra Modi turned the drought-prone Sourashtra in Gujarat into a record agrarian growth trajectory. The BJP-Shiv Sena government in Maharashtra is assiduously imitating this model to transform the parched landscape of Marathwada. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP was voted to power after ten years of Congress rule in 2003. Then for three successive polls, the voters did not give a second look at Congress. Be it Haryana or Jharkhand, this magic of development economics is working. This is a model empowering people to become masters of their destiny. Not making them dependent on the freebees and doles. From a povertarian scarcity and regulation-driven socialist paradigm, the BJP is driving the economy by unleashing the creative, entrepreneurial genius of the people. This has given birth to an aspirational class impatient for change and higher living standard.
The Left and the Right have alternatively ruined industry and agriculture in Kerala. Essentially they follow the same ideology. The BJP is fundamentally different. Can we revive agriculture here? Can we create a condition for investment? Thanks to Modi, many projects languishing for decades like Vizinjam are being flagged off after the BJP assumed office in Delhi. Modi has shown how hands on a Prime Minister could be when he rushed medicine and relief in the firecracker tragedy in Paravoor. Twenty-first century India cannot adopt the pace of action of the previous century. This is where the BJP differs from the rest.
For us India is one, the people are one. The BJP does not see voters in the compartments of caste, religion and vote bank. It has given more representation to youth and women. It has given the maximum number of chief ministers from poor, wretched and backward upbringing. The maximum number of tribals, Scheduled Caste and women MPs and MLAs are elected on BJP ticket. This is because of the colossal social engineering the BJP has successfully carried out in politics.
BJP is the answer Kerala is thirsting for.