For the first time, all the exit polls are nearly unanimous in the overall number of seats that the BJP and the Opposition might win. The difference between the projected BJP vote share and seats is so high that even if the pollster has got it wrong, it is clear that NDA under the leadership of BJP and Modi ji will form the next government. This will be an unprecedented third term for any Prime Minister who has been increasing his popularity base over the years much against the wishes of the opposition, and Indian post-independence history.
By now, we are all aware that the bitter opposition to Narendra Modi is not about Modi ji’s style of working, it is more about Hindutva which has found much wider acceptance since 2014 as the political scenario unfolded in the last ten years. The established narrative of left secular forces about a nation that never was, Aryan invasion and Aryan Dravid divide, benign Mughals versus Brahminical oppressive Hindu society that deserved to be ‘punished’, the great British who civilized us uncivilised pagans who did not know etc - all this is slowly coming apart at the seams. New thinkers, writers and spokespersons in the rainbow of Hindutva philosophy have been able to build a counter with a positive integrative narrative on the foundation of hundred years of awakening efforts of RSS and allied organisations.
For the left this is akin to blasphemy. For any Abrahamic cult, including exclusivist Communism, the punishment for such a rebellion is death or destruction of such ideas. Modi ji signifies this rise of the average Bharatiya against the oppressive negative stories fed to him/her for 75 years. Remember, common Bharatiyas never really owned up the superimposed construct on them. Civilizational memory persisted. However, they did not have a voice. RSS created a grassroots awakening that has turned the tide slowly.
The 2024 elections signify that this change is not ‘communal’, negative or temporary, but an assertive acceptance of Bharat’s roots. None of the clamour for decimating Sanatan, none of the hate propaganda against Hindus and Bharatiya civilisation, attacks on Hindus, and their traditions, no amount of disdain could move Hindus back to Left politics working behind the smokescreen of Congress and casteist parties. Abuse of Modi ji is also part of the same hate campaign.
The Opposition knows this danger to its existence, therefore, there has been sustained effort to discredit the ‘average middle-class Indian’, the democratic institutions and the BJP. The prime-time debates are full of hate, noise and negativity to cloud the real issues of the people and negate the positivity that permeates the Bharatiya society now. The imaginary battle being fought by the Opposition to ‘save the constitution’ and save India from dictatorship has found no buyers among the electorate.
The exit polls, even if we take only the trends, show that family and dynast parties are slowly losing acceptance. Those who tied their future with the BJP have been able to survive in small pockets, but others have failed spectacularly or on their way to becoming just vote katuas (vote cutters). Despite huge crowds in Akhilesh and Tejaswi their parties have not received the desired number of votes. Parties who promised the moon but could not fulfil their promises are being rejected. Whether it is Karnataka, Punjab or Himachal Pradesh non-performance of the ruling parties vis-à-vis their promises of freebies, the creaking infrastructure in these states has resulted in the people refusing to buy attractive extravagant schemes promised by Congress. North South divide theory will also be buried this season with BJP striking deep roots in states like Telangana, Tamilnadu and Kerala.
So, where does that leave the opposition the group of political parties fighting each other and Modi simultaneously from under the umbrella of the INDI alliance? It is turning them irrelevant unless they are ready to read the tea leaves.
They are currently in destructive mode. They are creating distrust in democratic institution