Voter Hai, Saab Jaanta Hai!

Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.…’ - Winston S Churchill, 11 November 1947

Really?

‘Voter hai saab jaanta hai’ is quite an oxymoron-ish if not outlandish a statement.

We have been living with this somewhat half-truth or make-believe truth for almost 75 years of our independence after 1947. Many may not like this but that is what I feel.

My idea is to understand how voter behaves? Why he votes the way he votes? Is it the best for him, or his fellow citizens, his nation at large? How does he decide whom to vote for? Is the moot point.

It can also be as illusive as ‘Law will take its own course!’ I remember Late Advocate Ram Jethmalani, one of the sharpest legal brains in the country saying this while addressing our students at Symbiosis University that ‘LAW will take its own course,’ is the worst and most bizarre a statement to make.

Winston Churchill whose quote is on top of this article, though not fully convinced about democracy, as a system of governance in a way conceded that this was probably the best amongst unequals in terms of governance models.
This confusion about whether voter knows the system or the system run by politicians knows the voter is like a riddle. Actually, I feel no one knows it fully well. Another example of such illusion is that there is no set winning formula to make a blockbuster box office hit film or a book which can be a best seller. Best directors, script writers and authors have never been able to nail this.

Most of us have read about or watched some films about World War Two and how Prime Minister Churchill who was from Conservative party, got Britain to survive the Nazi military onslaught from 1940 to 1945- almost six long years. He was a man of exceptional calibre and strength and was seen as saviour of Great Britain.
And what happened to him after the war where he gave every ounce of his energy? Though he was confident that his party would win post war 1945 elections- he lost badly!

Most surprisingly his party got only 197 against Labour getting a landslide victory winning 397 seats. This was the biggest electoral swing of the 20th century. Or call it Faux pas?

“Listen, Peaches, trickery is what humans are all about," said the voice of Maurice. "They're so keen on tricking one another all the time that they elect governments to do it for them.” ― Terry Pratchett, The Amazing Maurice and His Educated Rodents

A worldwide phenomenon

Churchill was for building up the nation with more defence spending, more privatisation and prudent taxation. And his popularity was at its peak too.

Labour party was out to give a populistic manifesto with job promises, affordable housing for all, health care and social security after war etc. People voted for them without asking how would they do it?

Can one say that you can fool all the people all the time? I am not sure.

Of course Churchill was aware what would happen after Russia and America would take their pound of flesh- they took flesh in tons! The cold war was between USSR and US, UK being a fringe player with James Bond making some guest appearances representing MI 5!

America of today is no different. You have two aged people over 75 fighting for the White house and Americans have no other choice- yet they are fighting tooth and nail to back one or the other. Sure American voter is also groping in the dark.

Therefore ‘kahani desh videsh ki’- is apt.

Cut to India

Our general elections have just got over and results – announced on 4 June 2024-are perplexing if not confusing.

“Democracy is a pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance.” ― H.L. Mencken

Post truth is an expression recently coined after ‘Brexit referendum’ and also after Trump got elected as US president.

Oxford dictionary defines this expression as relating to circumstances or situations where objective facts are less influential or matter less in shaping public opinion than emotional pitches. Had this been coined in 1940, it would have been apt to explain Churchills defeat and British mind set which seems to be same elsewhere- even in India.
Lot of post mortem is being conducted as regards a ‘lesser’ victory for BJP under the leadership of Shri Narendra Modi- now the third term Prime Minister in a row- a hat trick. Most exit polls were predicting landslide victory for BJP numbers ranging from 350 to 370 seats and even more. But all of them got it wrong- despite having technology and time as well as scientific tools to do ‘brain mapping’ of 1.4 billion brains- our voters. 640 million plus voted.
One can only sing the old song of Rajesh Khanna starrer ‘Yeh kya hua, kab hua,kyun hua, kaise hua?’ Post truth is OK for this too.

Someone might say ‘Hua to hua’ so be it. Yet as a common man and a keen observer of politics, geopolitics and my nation’s wellbeing I don’t want to say ‘hua to hua’. Let us try to evaluate- a sincere attempt- to find out kyun hua? Let me confess, I am not an expert and cannot get a bull’s eye. I am myself trying to fathom the truth.

Comparison to post war election in Britain may not be correct as Churchill was fighting an election immediately after British had experienced ‘Hell and back’ situation where millions lost their lives.

That was a bottom less pit in which British people and almost the whole world found themselves in.
Circumstances were very different than Indian elections of 2024- yet there could be similarities in terms of new found hope- that’s what most think tanks were looking at. And betting on.

“Politics: the art of using euphemisms, lies, emotionalism and fear-mongering to dupe average people into accepting--or even demanding--their own enslavement.” ― Larken Rose

A brief analysis of voters in India

India is a very fragmented yet cohesive society where people speak different languages, have several faiths, food habits, dresses, music et al. India is a very huge country- much larger than England.

We were bound with one single thread- our culture- whatever you may like to call it. Way of life, traditions and religious beliefs- all rolled in one.

Yet there are fault lines in terms of disparity, caste system and therefore reservations to support those who had been marginalised for centuries. To handle all this is not easy.

Churchill was to make the British survive but Modi was to make Indians thrive. And that was the big difference in the two situations.

Modi was setting up a thousand-year foundation- and a 50 year clear vision- a blueprint. He wanted the nation to get its rightful position in the new world order. In his two terms he did lot many things right- critics can always find faults and of course you cannot be always right. He has a vision- think big and execute, execute, execute. At the top level there was no corruption. Infrastructure got the biggest push and so did the human resource development. The national esteem index went through the roof.

Covid hit us hard as it hit the world. No one could have prevented the deaths, yet we made our own vaccines and vaccinated the entire population. As of 4 March 2023, India had administered over 2.2 billion doses overall.

This put us back by two years out of his ten. Which is 20% loss! Recently speaking to Palki Sharma in an interview the PM of Bhutan said that if there had been no covid India would have already been 5 trillion dollars economy!
The eastern region of the country- though very rich in several natural resources- had been in a state of neglect and almost given a step motherly treatment by governments till Modi came on the scene. Since last ten years lot has been done for this area. Roads, bridges and infrastructure has got a boost including Rail connectivity- a separate minister was made in-charge of this project called look East. All ministries without exception performed very well- no area was left unattended and right from bottom to top, all classes of people were impacted positively in some way or the other.

Rations were provided for 800 million people since Covid hit us. What more can a leader do?

Yet we built a great foreign reserve, kept inflation in check as world is struggling with price rise due to two major wars one in Gaza the other in Ukraine.

Law and order is much better today, terrorism has almost gone.

But does a common man or a voter know anything about Geopolitics, Article 370, GDP or even foreign affairs? PM Modi's address received about 15 standing ovations from US lawmakers and multiple applauses in the US parliament! Does a voter know what a standing ovation means?

I am afraid a large number has no clue? May be 80% don’t know. Even the so-called literate are not aware and most don’t care.

Not only turning around the nation in terms of making it the fifth largest economy and setting sights to a five trillion dollars economy soon, there was a great push to become self-reliant. (Atma Nirbhar). For the first time we started manufacturing defence equipment and even exporting it. But who cares?

The government did a lot for the poor too, in terms of, electricity to most villages, building twelve crore toilets, tapped water to a large population, medical cover for the poor and data services-cementing the urban rural digital divide- and bank accounts for fifty crore people who never had a bank account. Today every Indian is tech savvy and paying through online transactions- however small the amount!

Yet the opposition played a gamble by coming together -all parties on the deck- to oppose Modi.They promised the impossible and people were gullible as in 1945 and bought this basket full of false promises. They not only promised jobs for all but also spread lies that reservations will be abolished if Modi got absolute majority. They kept on hammering these two points to scare the voters and banked on Goebbels ‘big lie’ theory that if you a tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. This worked for them as no voter asked ‘how’ and why of all this.

While Modi was going step by step- in fact at breakneck speed- yet the voters bought into the false narrative and voted against him in large numbers. Truth lost and false narrative paid off. The Indian voter actually put his own foot in the mouth and messed up a great future for generations to come by ensuring a victory without absolute majority. I am sure voter was not smart enough to give this kind of a half-hearted verdict and could never get the entire 640 million to engineer this half- hearted victory.

Voter saab jaanata hai? Jury is still out.

The problem with democracy is that if there is a feeling of too much democracy, if a leader pushes too hard, he is labeled as a dictator.

In such a situation a leader is forced to think ‘Kya tare todd kar le aun’? Should I get the moon for you?
Frustration must be deafening.

False promises are killing us and every democracy

“Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'” ― Isaac Asimov

Imagine if people like the British in 1945 who fought a bloody war, every family losing some members, watched their cities devastated and a leader who brought them back on their feet defeated him because of false promises of jobs, cheap housing and health care, then anyone in todays times of false narrative like ‘democracy in danger’, muzzled press, ‘reservations will go’ with fake news via AI and social media (non-existent in 1945) can be fooled. Promising a handsome amount to poor women every year is sure to win hearts. In a nation where awareness is minimal- many may not agree.

If a court judgement is not in your favour you have to still accept it and say ‘I respect the judicial system’. In the heart of heart, you may still be sulking and guessing – what the hell happened.

Similarly, a political system has to accept the verdict of the people- however flawed and say ‘yeh janadesh hai’ and we respect it. Some have the guts to disagree. As Lincoln.

“Elections belong to the people. It's their decision. If they decide to turn their back on the fire and burn their behinds, then they will just have to sit on their blisters.” ― Abraham Lincoln



PS - I feel now some channels must commission survey agencies to find what the hell went wrong and why voters voted the way they voted especially in four critical states. Would do them a lot good in future.

After the election results of 2024 I have become a little wiser.

You may like to read my earlier article on voters and politicians- written in my partial naivety.