#SecurityScan 57: India takes G-20 to the last mile, Pentagon's drone swarm strategy and more
Despite the U.S. and other countries trying to ensure their economic security by assuming protectionist crouches, they are finding it difficult to reduce their reliance on Chinese supply chains for EVs and other products.
NewsBharati 11-Sep-2023 17:41:01 PM
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This article is a summary of important events that have taken place in last one week affecting, India's national security
Proactive Diplomacy
Taking the G-20 to the last mile, leaving none behind
India’s Group of 20 (G-20) presidency has played the role of a catalyst for human-centric progress in an interconnected world.“Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam” – these two words capture a deep philosophy. It means “the world is one family”. This is an all-embracing outlook that encourages us to progress as one universal family, transcending borders, languages and ideologies.
India’s Moment Has Arrived, and Modi Wants a New Global Order
The G-20 summit in New Delhi is set to showcase Narendra Modi’s attempts to demonstrate that geopolitics goes beyond the US and China. As a symbol of India’s intent to reshape the global order, the 19-ton statue depicting the revered Hindu god Shiva set to greet world leaders at the Group of 20 summit this week is hard to miss.Standing 28-feet (8.5 meters) tall and forged with metals such as gold, silver and iron, the Nataraja dancing figure is an appropriate icon for the summit host
Xi’s Unexplained G-20 absence Erodes his Image as Global Leader
Chinese leader will miss G-20 summit for first time ever. His absence comes as China and India clash over border dispute, President Xi Jinping began his third term with a diplomatic blitz that bolstered his image as a global statesman. Now, he’s skipping the world’s premier international forum of world leaders — and it’s not exactly clear why.It could be due to diplomatic sparring with India that Xi is snubbing the Group of 20 meeting in India. Or he wants to bolster the newly expanded BRICS forum. Maybe he wants to stay home to handle China’s economic troubles, with one of the nation’s largest property developers on the brink of default.
UN Secretary General "strong advocate" for UNSC permanent seat for India
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has expressed support for India's inclusion in the permanent seat of the UN Security Council. Guterres has been advocating for reforms in the Security Council to reflect the current global landscape. India has also called for reforms, stating the need for a council that represents the geographical and developmental diversity of the UN. India's Permanent representative to the UN, Ruchira Kamboj, emphasized the importance of developing countries having a voice in the Security Council.
Countering Chinese Multi Domain War
India sees chance to edge ahead of China, with Xi’s economy faltering, the West regards Narendra Modi as a better commercial partner
But Xi Jinping won’t be there, frightened it seems not of marauding monkeys but of losing face. That’s the same Chinese leader who has attended every G20 since 2013, the man whose mission is to rewrite the rules of global trade and governance. Why is he missing in action?China has to deal with a cascade of poor economic indicators and is no longer an obvious and inevitable candidate to take over from the United States as top dog.
Xi reprimanded by elders at Beidaihe over direction of nation, G20 absence hints at turmoil in Chinese domestic politics
There are signs of turmoil in Chinese domestic politics. On Monday, it was announced that President Xi Jinping will not attend an upcoming summit of the Group of 20 major economies in India. Premier Li Qiang will take his place. This will be the first time that Xi has skipped a G20 summit, to which he has consistently attached importance as China's top leader. A precursor seems to have been this summer's Beidaihe meeting, the annual get-together of incumbent and retired leaders of the Chinese Communist Party at the seaside resort of Beidaihe, Hebei Province. The informal discussions are never officially disclosed, but details of this year's closed-door talks have begun to emerge. In short, the conclave had a significantly different feel from the previous 10 Beidaihe meetings that have taken place since Xi became general secretary of the party in 2012. At this year's gathering, a group of retired party elders reprimanded the top leader in ways they had not until now. Xi later expressed his frustration to his closest aides.
"We reject the unlawful maritime claims..." US on 2023 edition of China's 'standard map'
The United States has rejected China's claims over territories in the South China Sea and called on China to adhere to international law. The US State Department stated that China's maritime claims are unlawful and inconsistent with international regulations. Several countries, including India, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Nepal, have also rejected China's new map.
Debt Crisis Threatens to Engulf China’s Surviving Developers
About two-thirds of 50 major private builders are defaulters, the 16 survivors face $1.5 billion bond payments this month China’s housing crisis has engulfed the country’s private developers, producing record waves of defaults and leaving a shrinking group of survivors. Out of the nation’s top 50 private-sector developers by dollar bond issuance, 34 have already suffered delinquencies on offshore debt, according to Bloomberg-compiled data as of Sept. 1. The remaining 16, led by Country Garden Holdings Co., face a combined $1.48 billion of onshore and offshore public bond payments for either interest or principal in September. The monthly amount is the highest until January.
China takes larger slices of EV, battery, other key markets: survey
Chinese companies have expanded their presence in the markets for cutting-edge materials, electric vehicles and 16 other key products and services, a Nikkei survey shows. Despite the U.S. and other countries trying to ensure their economic security by assuming protectionist crouches, they are finding it difficult to reduce their reliance on Chinese supply chains for EVs and other products. Nikkei looked at the shares of markets for 63 end products, services, core parts and materials indispensable to global economic activity. Among the top five market leaders in each category, Chinese companies in 2022 expanded their shares of the markets for EVs, battery materials, liquid crystal display panels and 15 other key products and services from the previous year. Chinese companies also captured shares of more than 30% in 13 of these markets.
Why youth unemployment is surging in China
China is facing a growing list of problems — real estate, semiconductor bans and labor market gyrations. The world’s second-most populous country also has a major youth unemployment problem. China’s urban youth unemployment rate has risen to 21% as of May 2023, up from 15.4% two years earlier. “Let’s not forget about the draconian lockdown measures,” says Fang Xu, urban sociologist at the University of California, Berkeley. “The young people are still recovering.” This comes as the world’s second-largest economy faces a tougher time getting out of the Covid pandemic than many experts estimated, which has broader impacts on the ability of investors to put money to work in the country, and the struggling property sector.
China’s Coercion Is Most Effective Against Poorer Countries
It’s often argued that China’s coercive tactics do not achieve results. But new data suggests that’s only true for countries with a high GDP per capital.
China Slowdown Means It May Never Overtake US Economy, Forecast Shows
Bloomberg Economics projects growth slowing to near 1% by 2050 Property slump and battered confidence are proving hard to fix China is no longer set to eclipse the US as the world’s biggest economy soon, and it may never consistently pull ahead to claim the top spot as the nation’s confidence slump becomes more entrenched. That’s according to Bloomberg Economics, which now forecasts it will take until the mid-2040s for China’s gross domestic product to exceed that of the US — and even then, it will happen by “only a small margin” before “falling back behind.” Before the pandemic, they expected China to take and hold pole position as early as the start of next decade.
Chinese spies ‘sent to sensitive US sites masquerading as tourists’
China has been accused of sending spies masquerading as tourists in an attempt to enter secret military facilities in the United States, as efforts to improve the relationship between the two powers falter.
China's Belt and Road at crossroads as more loans turn sour,10 years in, Beijing new investments trend down
A decade since China first proposed the Belt and Road Initiative, China's aggressive investments around the world have helped expand both trade and its international influence. Yet the infrastructure-focused initiative is losing steam amid a domestic economic slowdown and a surge in defaults triggered by factors including COVID-19. The country now appears to be rethinking how it invests overseas, with President Xi Jinping pushing to boost the profitability of Belt and Road projects.
Pentagon drone swarm strategy aims to counter Chinese military
The Pentagon has unveiled a radical new strategy focused on fielding thousands of cheap, smart and autonomous war drones across multiple domains within 18 to 24 months to counter China’s military advantage in personnel and manned equipment and deter a potential invasion of Taiwan.Named “Replicator,” the initiative is meant to help the United States “overcome the PRC's (People Republic of China’s) biggest advantage, which is mass: more ships, more missiles, more people," U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks told a conference in Washington.Hicks spoke of leveraging “'attritable,' autonomous systems” that are “less expensive, put fewer people in the line of fire, and can be changed, updated or improved with substantially shorter lead times.”Attritable systems refer to platforms that are expendable, unmanned and built affordably, allowing military commanders to take higher risks in employing them.
77% of US youth unqualified for military service-Media report
US military recruitment crisis is rooted in obesity, drug addiction, mental health issues and low educational attainment.
The Last Minarets of Yunnan, China’s Hui Muslims in the Cross Hairs of Xi’s New Nationalism
But beyond ramifications for China abroad, the campaign risks impoverishing the richness of Chinese society at home. Xi’s program of forceful Sinicization represents the abandonment of the notion of duo yuan yi ti (pluralistic unity) in the Han-dominated state’s approach to relations with ethnic minorities. Instead, that pluralism is becoming intensely subordinate to the imperative of unity, with the party-state enshrining the Han civilizational heritage.
Such Han cultural hegemony will only flatten the complexity of China and diminish the country—and stoke bitterness, dissent, and resistance among those whose culture the state seeks to erase.
Australia is Becoming America’s Top Defense Partner
Australia is reorienting its grand strategy for long-term competition with China.
US 'trying to choke' China's military capacity: Commerce Secretary Raimondo
The US Commerce Secretary, Gina Raimondo, has stated that the country will not sell advanced chips to the Chinese military, as part of efforts to limit China's military capabilities. Raimondo reiterated that the US will not compromise on preventing the sale of sophisticated semiconductors to China for military purposes.
Pakistan a Failed State
4 soldiers killed in Taliban attack in northwest Pakistan
Four soldiers "fought gallantly" during the exchange of fire and were killed, it said, adding that the area was being sanitised to eliminate any other terrorists found in the vicinity.
Pakistan: US military gear, arms left behind in Afghanistan now in militant hands
Pakistan's caretaker PM has claimed that US military equipment left behind in Afghanistan has fallen into the hands of the Pakistani Taliban, posing a new challenge for Islamabad. The equipment, including night vision goggles and firearms, is said to have enhanced the fighting capabilities of the Pakistani Taliban. There is no definite information on the quantity of equipment left behind, but the Taliban seized US-supplied firepower from Afghan forces who surrendered it. The PM did not provide any evidence to support his allegation.
Myanmar angry with Pakistan over 'unfit' fighter jets supplied by Islamabad
The Myanmar military junta has declared the JF-17 Thunder fighter planes supplied by Pakistan as unfit for operations. The Burmese Air Force was forced to ground the planes due to malfunctions and structural flaws. This has strained relations between Islamabad and Naypyidaw, leading China to intervene. Pakistan is reportedly attempting to renegotiate the deal with newer versions of the JF-17s, but it is unclear if the military junta has accepted the new terms.
External Security
India seeks acquisition of 31 advanced 'hunter-killer' drones from US ahead of PM Modi-Biden G20 meet
India has formally requested to purchase 31 weaponized Predator-B drones from the US. The Ministry of Defence sent a Letter of Request (LoR) for these "hunter-killer" drones and related equipment. The Biden administration is expected to respond with a Letter of Offer and Acceptance (LoA) under its foreign military sales program. Negotiations will determine the final price for the acquisition. The drones will enhance India's surveillance and strike capabilities in the Indian Ocean Region and along the borders with China and Pakistan.
India's military studying options for any China war on Taiwan
India is reportedly considering its possible responses to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, following discreet inquiries from the US on how India could contribute in the event of a war. The Indian government has commissioned a study to examine the wider impact of a war over Taiwan that involves the US and its allies, and to explore what actions India could take in response. Possible options being considered include serving as a logistics hub for allied forces and getting directly involved along the northern border with China.
Millets added in diet of Assam Rifles jawans
"In place of rice, we are giving johar, bajra and ragi and in place of wheat, we are giving them dalia," Lt Gen PC Nair told.
Deputy Chief of Air Staff flies indigenously developed trainer aircraft HTT-40
The Hindustan Turbo Trainer Aircraft-40 (HTT-40), designed and developed by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), was flown by Deputy Chief of the Air Staff Air Marshal Ashutosh Dixit in Bengaluru. The fully aerobatic aircraft is equipped with a turbo-prop engine, glass cockpit, modern avionics, and safety features including a zero-zero ejection seat.
IAF tests indigenously developed Military Combat Parachute System
A test jumper of the Indian Air Force, during his jump, carried out an intentional detachment of the main parachute and let the reserve parachute open on its own through Reserve Static Line (RSL), without activation of the Reserve Handle, even before the Barometric Automatic Activation Device.
Top naval commanders review maritime security scenario at 3-day Delhi conclave
The naval commanders' conference is the apex-level biannual event that facilitates interaction between the naval commanders for deliberation and formulation of important policy decisions. The senior leadership of the Indian Navy will review major operational, materiel, logistics, human resources, training, and administrative activities undertaken during the previous six months.
"Indian Air Force Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhari interacted with top brass of the Indian Navy at the Naval Commanders' Conference. He spoke about the latest developments in the IAF's operational doctrine and learning from each other's best practices."
INS Sumedha participates in 'Exercise Bright Star-23' in Egypt
The Indian Navy's INS Sumedha has arrived in Egypt to participate in 'Exercise BRIGHT STAR-23', the largest joint military exercise ever held in the Middle East and North Africa region. The exercise involves 34 countries and is planned in two phases. The Harbour Phase includes activities such as cross-deck visits and professional exchanges, while the Sea Phase will feature high-intensity exercises and live weapon firing drills.
Second barge of LSAM 16 series built by private firm delivered to Navy
The Indian Navy has received a second barge from a private firm, which is expected to assist in the transportation of articles and ammunition to ships. The barge was delivered in line with the government's 'Aatmanirbhar Bharat' initiatives and has a service life of 30 years. With all equipment sourced from indigenous manufacturers, the barge is a symbol of the 'Make in India' campaign.
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, CDS to take part in North Tech Symposium
The Indian Army is organizing the three-day North Tech Symposium, which will be attended by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Chief of Defence Staff General Anil Chauhan, and Army Chief General Manoj Pande. The event is expected to showcase military equipment from over 250 companies, including 50 start-ups. The symposium aims to promote cutting-edge defence technology and self-reliance, with a focus on enhancing military capabilities through synergy, research, development, and innovation.
Internal Security
Sahebs | History of Subversion of India | Full Film
Sahebs Who Never Left is a film that ties together Ideological Subversion (as explained by KGB defector Yuri Bezmenov in 1970s) to the History of India. How Islamic invaders like Sher Shah Suri initiated a domino effect of creating subservient operators, who were later adopted by East India Company, becoming the cream of the society. Then the film draws a parallel that how the Freedom Movement of India was also hijacked by these Brown Sahibs, and ultimately led to what every subversion leads to - The Partition of India, in a bloody Civil War.The fabled land of riches eventually becomes the ultimate tragedy on Earth, and no one bats an eyelid? The History of India is full of brave resistance and sacrifices to protect the land of Dharma, but then why did we fall? We didn't lose to invaders. We lost to the Sahebs among us. Weaklings, who were softened by the charms of invaders, and sold their souls. Watch the true History of India hidden from us.
Ukriane War
Human-machine teams driven by AI are about to reshape warfare
Commercial software developers are challenging the traditional defense industry in the arms market, potentially revolutionizing warfare. In the war in Ukraine, teams of humans and machines are reshaping the battlefield, with remotely piloted drones significantly improving the lethality of artillery, rockets, and missiles.
Russia signs 2,80,000 for contract military service this year –Medvedev
Some 280,000 people have signed up so far this year for professional service with Russia's military, the deputy chair of the Russian Security Council, former President Dmitry Medvedev, said on Sunday. Visiting Russia's Far East, Medvedev said he was meeting local officials to work on efforts to beef up the armed forces.
Who is Rustem Umerov, Ukraine's new defence minister?
Umerov is known for his negotiating skills and has been involved in talks with Russia and international delegations. He has a background in the private sector and holds degrees in economics and finance.
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BRIG Hemant Mahajan
Passionate writer on National Security related issues, Brig Hemant Mahajan YSM (Retd) is M Sc, M Phil in Defence Studies. He joined IMA Dehradun in July 1973 and passed out as a Commissioned Officer on 15 June 1975. He was commissioned into 7 MARATHA LIGHT INFANTRY. He has served extensively in Counter Insurgency Operations in Insurgency and Terrorist prone areas of Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab and North East and has taken part in all important operations undertaken by the Army since 1975.
Brig Hemant Mahajan served in Jammu & Kashmir, in the deserts of Rajasthan, in Super High Altitude areas of Kargil and Leh, forward areas of Arunachal Pradesh. He was deployed in Punjab in ‘Operation Avert’. He was also involved in maintaining peace post ‘Operation Bluestar’ days in Punjab in the worst affected district of Gurdaspur, Taran Taran and Amritsar.He served in the areas of Darjeeling, Kurseong, Siliguri and Sikkim. He commanded his battalion 7 MARATHA LIGHT INFANTRY in Operation Rakshak in the most difficult areas of Poonch and Rajouri during the times of highest militancy. His unit was responsible for stopping terrorists from Pakistan into Jammu and Kashmir. His unit was awarded Unit Citation, 18 gallantry awards including YSM (gallantry) for the officer.