Analysis of Poonch Terror Attack

The image of burning truck on News Channels all over India brought back Specter of Terrorism in J&K and shook the Public/Intellectuals/Defence Commentators who had begun to believe that Pakistan, in her current low status, was a pushover and ignoring it was a better policy. 55 Rashtriya Rifles Battalion (RR),which braved this attack, was hit by a jolt on a very normal day of work when they went to win hearts and minds of Locals. All SOPs were in place, QRTs were alert, Intelligence Teams were active and no one can beat a trained RR Battalion. But we lost Five Brave hearts.

This is my take on the sequence of Events;
a) On 18 April,23; Pakistan Defence Ministry submitted a report to its Supreme Court mentioning reasons with special reference to Threat from India and possibility of an All out War with India, thus requesting the Court to withdraw their Poll Date Order;

b) It seems, Pak Defence Ministry decides when elections are to be conducted;

c) Pak Army Chief went with a begging bowl to Saudi Arabia and is currently in China;

d) PTI Party led by Imran Khan wants early elections ,Shehbaz Sharif Government wants to delay the same by raising India bogy; e) On 20 April,23 Pak External Affairs Ministry announced that Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto will be visiting India on 4 May,23 for SCO meeting to be held in Goa;

f) Within in hours of this announcement at about 1530 in the afternoon, Five RR Soldiers were martyred in an ambush laid by Pak supported terror group in Poonch sector of Jammu and Kashmir;

g). This was not a mere coincidence. It is a well thought out Sequence of Events; planned and executed by Pakistan;

h) It was a well thought of Plan-

i) They chose a Rainy/Fogy Day to execute their Plan,
ii) They acquired/took positions on both, Valley Side and on Mountain side of the Road,
iii) A sniper was positioned on turning top side to eliminate Driver,
iv) They had Chinese Small Arms, Grenades, Stick Bombs, Rocket Launchers,
v) They must have reconnaissance the Place and Rehearsed/Practiced the Plan with reference to/firm the Firing Distances,
vi) They got information of a Lone Army Vehicle going to deliver Iftar Gifts from their sources ,
viii) As the vehicle approached, the Sniper took the Driver and vehicle came to a halt,
ix) Intense Small Arm Fire Volley from Valley/Mountain Side, piercing Top Canvas covering the vehicle incapacitating/killing Soldiers inside, Threw Grenades, Vehicle did not catch fire after explosion, Few injured/dead soldiers were thrown output Stick Bomb put on Fuel Tank, Petrol Tank exploded, Vehicle caught fire;
x) Terrorists snatched the weapons of fallen soldiers and left the Place;
xi) A Court of Inquiry has been ordered. FIRs against “Unknown Terrorists" and FIR has been lodged;
xii) Aggressive searches and Area Domination is underway while writing this article.

Creeping return of “Normalcy” in J&K was lulling the public and signs of a very good Tourist Season were bringing forth a Perception of Security under which such an act was quite unexpected. But surprise, as a Principle of War applies equally in such Hybrid War Conditions. Pakistan’s sponsored proxies perhaps find they have invested too much in the cause of J&K to allow themselves the luxury of remaining indifferent to the situation which the Indian Government is turning around with renewed energy and vigor. Pakistan claims these actions in J&K as the handiwork of Non State Actors, Freedom Fighters or disaffected Persons within Pakistan, which is rejected by India. We blame it on Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Jamat ud Dawa (JuD), Lashkar e Tayba and Jaish e Mohammad (JeM). Recent reports indicate it to be an act by JeM. Poonch event reveals much when Properly Analyzed related to event and to its impact.

An Upcoming Tourist Season, No major Terrorist Activity, Dilution of Counter Terror Grid, Scheduled International Events comprising of SCO Foreign Ministers Meeting in Goa and G20 Tourism Meeting in Srinagar, both in May, 2023 and Worldwide Activities of Khalistan Separatists, provide chance to Militants for a Spectacular Action. We should not be surprised if,26 April,23 Naxal Attack in Dantewada to be linked with these activities. Pakistani Deep State is bound to make concerted efforts to cancel SCO Foreign Ministers Meeting in Goa on 04-05 May and G20 Tourism Meeting at Srinagar on 22-24 May 2023.Poonch Attack seems to be a First Step towards this Direction. Pakistan, at all cost, will like to/will prevent India to showcase its success in establishing near normalcy and attracting International Tourism in J&K after amending Article 370 on Integration of J&K. as well Goa Meeting by raising Bogey of Violence. Countries refusing to attend SCO Meeting/Tourism Meeting as a result of Terrorist Violence will be a Feather in Pak Cap.

Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhotto is likely to attend SCO Foreign Ministers Meeting at Goa. It provides a Golden Chance to Pakistan to defame India in an International Forum. Sino Pak nexus would be at work within SCO. Though, in present changing world order, China may not do anything to harm Indian reputation in SCO but Pakistan will certainly carry out a disruptive act to create any negativity for India. Because, after Pak disruptive action, if India denies Bilawal Bhutto coming to country, it would create legal complications within SCO. Bilawal Bhutto, will certainly use this platform to upset the Stability of Forum or create a Larger-than-life Image by making Anti India statements on Indian soil. Therefore, we must not neglect security of J&K and prevent Pak from putting any obstacles in the path of the integration efforts being undertaken by the Government of India.

Any such Attack Analysis generally put blame on Government, Intelligence Agencies and Army. But a hundred percent Grid Effectiveness can never be guaranteed, even by best technologies and best intelligence. Hybrid Warfare breeds on this understanding. Militants can predetermine Time, Place and Nature, in an environment of 24x7 readiness at Tactical Level. There will be faults and mistakes in a Grid Defence due to Human Nature. Terrorists and their sponsors are aware of this fact. Whenever India is slated to host big International Events, a Terrorist Attack J&K is sponsored by Pakistan’s Deep State. Chittisinghpura massacre of March 2000 in sync with President Bill Clinton’s address to our Parliament was most spectacular and timed act.

After Surgical Strikes in September, 2016 and Balakote Air Strike in February, 2019, we assumed that Pakistan will avoid/not Risk Conflagration with India. Also because, we had realised in Kargil that a All-out Conventional War on Kashmir Issue was not possible/is unlikely due to overhanging Nuclear War Threat. Ongoing Ruso Ukraine War which is proving to be a Disastrous Conventional Campaign support this statement.

Terrain is that area is difficult. People there are friendly "when they want to be". Generally they are hostile to the Forces and more friendly to Militants. All the "Prem and Sadbhavna" showered on them makes no difference. One inkling of callousness on our part, invites this type of Disaster. It seems that Army is providing help under Operation Sadbhavana but has failed to win hearts and minds of Population. Staying always at that Peak of Alertness throughout is very difficult. We all are humans and faulter. It seems that Militants knew that RR Vehicle was out to deliver Iftar Packages. It was a gesture of bonhomie on part of RR.

If we have our Intelligence Network, so have they. How did their network penetrate ours, is what needs to be introspected. This was not suitable location chosen for an ambush. But Militants did the unexpected. They chose a perfect location for Ambush which paid them dividends. Most of Media and People wanted Army to "Find the Bl….y B….s, retaliate and hit them hard where it hurts". Many on TV, advocated that Government must start a War with Pakistan to Raise their Cost.

Pakistan Government wants to raise India bogey to stay relevant in Domestic Politics. At present, her Aim is to scuttle Indian Efforts to hold G 20 Meetings in Goa/Kashmir in May, 2023. Our Policy Makers, before thinking of giving a shape to a possible response, might be toying with this kind of scenario .At this critical juncture; Media, Political Parties, Intellectuals must stand behind Government In Military Parlance it is well established doctrine that “History seldom Repeats”. Thus there has to be an element of surprise and we should not do akin to what we did in past, post Uri/Pulwama Incidents. For this to happen, we have to wait for appropriate Time and formulate a Plan to teach Pakistan a Long Lasting Lesson and bring her on her knees.

As a Diplomatic Option; we gave notice to Pakistan on 25 January,2023 for Modification of Indus Water Treaty of 1960. Though, Pakistan replied on 03 April,2023, it was evident that our notice has sent jitters in Pakistan over future Indian Action. For example, we can demand Safe Land Access to Afghanistan through Pakistan to Renew the Treaty. We are powerful enough now to decide the Place, Mode and Timing of our Possible Response as per our Choosing.

We must not undertake Direct Immediate Kinetic Retribution to Poonch Terror Attack or for that matter any attack sponsored by Pakistan in J&K in whole of May,2023.We must think and act in a Considered Timeframe, without a Kneejerk Reaction. But it is important to put Pakistan on notice that Our Response need not always be Kinetic. It could be in Cyber, Economic, Social and Diplomatic Domains.The reason is; any Tactical Level Engagement just inside the LoC has Strategic Connotations. Every Action and Counter Action in this Supercharged Environment can resut in an Immediate Strategic Impact.

Finally; my heart aches for Every Soldier Lost. For Ground Soldiers my message is “Brothers, Bash on regardless, Be extra vigilant, Don’t set a pattern, Don’t trust your informers. Live to eliminate the last Militant standing.Time will come to "Hit Back- At a time and Place of Our Choosing".