Recently two large earthquakes with magnitudes of 7.8 and 7.5, hit the southeastern part of Turkey. Over 200 aftershocks followed with earthquakes of magnitude 6 and were felt in both Turkey and Syria. Since the earthquakes, India was amongst the first nations to respond and pledge aid on the humanitarian level to Turkey according to the Turkish envoy, Firat Sunel. So far 7 National Disaster relief teams from India have been dispatched to Turkey, consisting of medical professionals, military personnel, and trained dog squads, along with medical supplies, drilling machines, and other equipment required for the operation are deployed.

Garuda Aerospace's Droni drones are also being utilized to detect victims trapped under the rubble in the affected areas while modified Kisan drones are being actively used to transport medications, food, and other supplies. The IAF has been diligently airlifting the relief teams from India and transporting them to Turkey, while field hospitals are also set up in the affected area. Due to India's response, Firat Sunel thanked India and referred India as a true “Dost” (friend) indeed, Hence the search rescue and relief operation conducted by India towards Turkey came to be known as Operation Dost.

In 2021, Turkey too had provided India with medical supplies during the Covid crisis. While Turkey and India have cooperated to some degree on a Humanitarian level, it is important to mention Erdogan`s vested interest in India and Turkey`s attempt at destabilizing the nation. Time and again, history has repeated itself. While Turkey calls India a Dost for now, would Erdogan continue to honor the friend once the earthquake disaster has been mitigated?

In the past months, various reports of Ankara's plan to deploy a jihadist army of mercenaries against India in Kashmir have graced social media platforms. According to some reports, the commander of the Syrian National Army (SNA) militia "Sulayman Shah Brigades", Muhammed Abu Amsha, has claimed that he would displace some of their units to the Kashmir region. These units are believed to be relocated from the city of Şiyê near the Afrin region. Afrin is one of the three original regions of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria. Amsha also mentioned each recruit would be paid an initial remuneration of $2,000. Further reports of similar recruitment activity spreading to Azaz, Jarablus, Bab and Idlib has been coming to light.

Case of ISI, Turkey, Kashmir, and Destabilizing India

It is important to mention, Turkey has been constantly competing with Saudi Arabia and in its attempt to expand its outreach, has often conveyed its desire to exert its influence among the Muslim youth of the South Asian region as well. Therefore, it should be no surprise if Erdogan would seek to further solidify its alliance with Pakistan. Both Pakistan and Turkey are attempting to kill two birds with one stone. While Pakistan in its desire to wage Gazwa-i-Hind seeks to destabilize India with its psyops and proxy wars in various parts of the country, the introduction of Turkey into this blend by prostrating itself as a savior of Kashmiris, based on the fake ISI narrative of delegitimizing the abrogation of Article 370 by the Indian government and the misinformation dispensed about the grave conditions in Kashmir is well met.

Importantly, the Indian move to turn Kashmir into a union territory came as no surprise. Kelly Buchanan, a legal specialist for the nonpartisan Library of Congress also pointed out that the Indian Constitution considered both Articles 370 and 371 as “Temporary, Transitional and Special Provisions,” which translates to not holding any permanency. So, it can be logically stipulated that the act of abrogation of two, by the Indian government was without a doubt a legal move. However, Pakistan in its hypocritic way has sought support amongst the Islamic diaspora by projecting India as intolerant to its Muslim citizens, fascists, and enforcer of military rule on Kashmir. With this propaganda at large and various organizations erupting from the ISI funding and its affiliates, Pakistan seeks to turn its lies into a legitimate truth. It not only plans to use India`s own Muslim diaspora against India but those who reside abroad as well with its information warfare.

The question of a positive change in Kashmir since the abrogation of the two articles, with the introduction of rights never before seen in Kashmir, such as the Scheduled Caste and the Scheduled Tribes Act, the Whistleblowers Protection Act, the Right of Children to Free and Compulsory Education Act and Women rights in Kashmir seem to go unnoticed by the international Human Rights Watch, as Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute stated: “they prioritize politics above their founding principles”. With the backdrop of such a scenario, Pakistan stands to gain with Erdogan deploying his shadow army in Kashmir in the form of mercenaries clandestinely and without having to bear the onus of intervening in another nation`s internal matter at a cost-effective price.

The claims made by Pakistan also come as hypocritical, when the majority of states in the nation are protesting against its military and the government, not to mention state-imposed rule in Gilgit-Baltistan, open proclamations from a military officer, Ayman Bhilal about the operation ground zero on the Baloch on orders of China and cases of the missing Baloch, Sindhis, and Pashtuns increasing daily, to name a few.

With the U.S. exit from Afghanistan and with the U.S. Special Envoy, Zalmay Kalilzad`s promises of handing Afghanistan to the Taliban surely became the Indian decision to abrogate articles 370 and 371 a viable and a necessary security decision.

Turkey has openly advocated in support of Pakistan's position of holding a plebiscite under the UN whether to determine the possibility of Kashmir joining Pakistan. This was confirmed when Turkish President Erdogan had addressed the Pakistani parliament attended by Pakistan's military high command.

In the past years, the diplomatic and military relations between the two nations have considerably expanded. Through these channels of mutual understanding, both support a mutual bidding against India. Relations with India have always been uneasy one, as Turkey has consistently supported Pakistan on the subject of Kashmir.

Erdogan`s biases towards Pakistan was easily reflected during his visit to India in 2017, when Erdogan decided to make remarks on conducting a “multilateral dialogue” in regard to the Kashmir dispute. According to his stance, the Kashmir matter was a bilateral matter even for Pakistan. Given such a statement, it was expected the remarks would not be met pleasantly by Delhi and India was forced to view Turkey through the prism of Pakistan in mind.

On one hand, the Turkish hydra has displayed its one head showing solidarity with India in its fight against terrorism by condemning the Naxalite attack on the Central Reserve Police Force personnel at Sukma in the past, while on the other hand it remained silent on cross border terror attacks from Pakistan. Turkey as expected, has reiterated its rhetoric on Kashmir United Nations (UN) General Assembly (UNGA) that the international community has not paid “enough attention” to the Kashmir conflict, further stating that “despite the resolutions adopted by the UN Security Council, Kashmir is still besieged, and eight million people are stuck in Kashmir.”

In response to Turkey`s claims, India boldly expressed its position and raised the issue of Cyprus with Turkey. The conflict with Cyprus began in 1974, when Turkey invaded and occupied the northern part of the country as a result of a military coup on the island which was backed by the Greek government. While Erdogan strives to serve his tasteless baklava with heaps of ISI narrative, he is left facing the Cyprus issue which has become Turkey`s Achilles heel.

The ties between Pakistan and Turkey also extend to their mutual support for Azerbaijan. This mutual alliance comes at the cost of Armenia. The mutual disregard of acknowledging the sovereignty of Armenia clearly helps Pakistan warm up to Turkey and Azerbaijan. The quid pro quo approach to recognize Azerbaijan’s claims over Nagorno-‐Karabakh has granted Azerbaijan’s support for Pakistan’s narrative on Kashmir issue as well.

Since the Syrian war, Turkey’s growing influence in the Middle East has left Pakistan in a dilemma to appease Turkey or Saudi Arabia. Turkey and Iran's adventurism in the internal affairs of many Arab nations has led to massive shifts in Middle Eastern geopolitics.

Turkey’s support to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt as well as its conflict with the Saudis over policies in Libya and Qatar have caused a disintegration of Ankara and Riyadh ties. Amidst the shifts in political alliances, India`s growing relations with Saudi Arabia poses threat to Pakistan.

Turkey as one the main non-Sunni nations has joined forces with Pakistan, Iran and Malaysia to counter the Arab alliance of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and Egypt and their presence in the OIC. Both Russia and China support the non-Arab alliance due to their vested interest strategically and politically. With the number of sanctions placed on Russia by the western powers, the dependency on the non-Arab alliance has forced Moscow to look for allies amongst the non-Arab alliance, while Beijing has acknowledged Turkey, Iran and Pakistan as “the central corridor joining the new land and sea routes” which are deemed of strategic importance to China. These growing alliances have favourably backed one another to challenge India on the Kashmir matter.

While Erdogan exploits Pakistan`s obsession with Riyadh by providing Pakistan with conducive solutions to cultivate their own ties, it also looks to spread its own model of political Islam through Pakistan. In its efforts to export its ideologies, Erdogan has clearly remained silent on the ill treatment of the Uighurs in China to appease the dragon while remains fervently vocal on Kashmir narrative. It is expected, by default Ankara`s aspirations will lie with China while the expected deterioration of relations between Turkey and Delhi will follow.
Conclusion

Islam has become a central force in Turkish politics, more specifically the one which Erdogan wishes to export. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s aspirations to place importance on elevating religious leaders, scholars and institutions in civil life, left Turkey less secular than it was. In order to achieve its goals, Turkey has employed its proxy forces and proxy military to execute its presence. It has effectively resuscitated the Syrian armed opposition in Syria as a “viable fighting force” by slowly establishing control in Syria, and backed many groups such as the Syrian National Army (SNA) and National Liberation Front (NLF). This was majorly done to partner with Hey’at Tahrir al-Sham elements (HTS; a former Al-Qaeda affiliate) without exposing any direct ties. Similar plan was executed in Libya and is expected to be implemented in Kashmir

It is understood that the objective of Turkey is to obtain influence in South Asia by providing logistical support and providing the necessary funding in favour of ISI and partnering with existing actors in the South Asian region to bring instability to India. The policy of divide and rule while scavenging on the mutual perceptions of Pakistan`s believers, it plans to resolve the “Kashmir problem”.

In a meeting held by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s secretive paramilitary group SADAT, the need to send mercenaries to Kashmir and Palestine was raised.

Syed Ghulam Nabi Fai, a Kashmiri-born convicted felon who served time in US federal prison had made remarks prior, talking about sending mercenaries to fight in Kashmir and Palestine.



Fai’s remarks were highlighted by SADAT’s front organization, the Association of Justice Defenders Strategic Studies Center (ASSAM), on November 12, 2022. It is important to note that Fai’s US-based organization, the Kashmiri American Council (KAC), is funded by ISI, and has enjoyed its relations with SADAT and its associated organizations.

Foundation for Human Rights and Freedoms and Humanitarian Relief is an NGO run by İnsan Hak ve Hürriyetleri ve İnsani Yardım Vakfı, or IHH on the Pakistani side of Kashmir. IHH is believed to have links with terror outfits such as al-Qaeda and is believed to be aligned with Turkish President Erdogan. The outfit is associated with Turkish intelligence agency MIT, led by Erdogan`s close ally Hakan Fidan. It remains a close associate of Popular Front of India (PFI) to maintain its influence over the Muslim Diaspora in India.

The duplicity of Erdogan and his dream to champion Islam in South Asia, streams down to his close proximity with Pakistan, appeasement of China and his bombastic statements to gain importance in the Islamic community.

For now, India must tread cautiously and wait for the Hydra to unveil all its heads or possibly be prepared for what kind of Turkish delight its Dost sets to serve.

The writer Aparna Rawal is an Indian research analyst specializing in the AF/Pak region and counterterrorism & article is edited by Jyotiprakash, Research analyst who writes passionately about Indian Defence capabilities & made in India Defence equipments.