Part 3 | Inclusiveness Is The Priority On Budget 2023-24

(This is a three-part series article written by our Author Dinakar Lanka about his analysis of Budget 2023)

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman seems to exercise the upcoming Budget 2023-24 as per the aspiration of Honourable Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision, which flows for the last 8 years of his governance as I explained in my previous articles Budget 2023 Special Part 1: Beginning “ NAMO 1.0 Governance Influence Will Exist On Budget 2023-24 ” and Budget 2023 Special Part 2: Continuing “ NAMO 2.0 Growth & Existing Uncertainties Influence On Budget 2023-24 ” respectively.

Hence, most possibly the area of consideration replicate in the Upcoming Budget what I have expressed in my previous articles about the actions and future plans initiated by the Union Government as per the requirements of the people of the Nation and the global uncertainties that forced measures to attain the ultimate goal of Inclusive Growth. In addition to it, as I expected the “ Gatishakthi Yojana with Atmanirbhar as a backbone for Budget 2022 -23” prior to the previous year's Budget in my article, the same will be repeated in the next upcoming Budget 2023 - 24 also with an intention to increase the Capital Expenditure for the creation of assets to either generate future revenue to the Nation or quality services to the People. Definitely, meaningful welfare on the need basis as “ANTYODAYA” will be continued for the eligible beneficiaries along with the meaning full outlay for the Capital expenditure will be incurred to generate employment opportunities as well as physical assets to the Nation.



We knew the facts around the impact of GDP Growth Pre and Post Covid-19 and recovery thereafter for the financial year 2021-22 due to the Atmanirbhar Bharath Package, As per the National Statistical Officer ( NSO ) the growth in real GDP has been estimated at 7% for the financial year 2022 - 23 as against to 8.70% for the financial year 2021 - 22. Actually, The real GDP has been estimated to achieve Rs. 157.60 Lakh Crores for the financial year 2022 - 23 at constant 2011 - 12 prices where it was Rs. 147.36 Lakh Crores in the financial year 2021 - 22.

On the other hand, GDP at Current Prices ( Nominal GDP ) for the financial year 2022 - 23 has been estimated for Rs. 273.08 Lakh Crores at 15.40% Growth rate as against in the financial year 2021 - 22 of Rs. 236.65 Lakh Crores at 19.5%. Despite the prevailing Global slowdown and Unforeseen Uncertainties, such as Russia - Ukraine war supply chain disruption, Raise in crude oil prices, Inflation, etc., Bharath has performed better than all other countries in the world due to the firm and stable policies of the government with the coordination of the RBI for the timely decisions.

One of the vital considerations is the Private Final Consumption Expenditure, it is the measure of demand, which has been estimated to grow by 7.70% for the financial year 2022 - 23 though all the hardships have been appearing for last 9 months, consequently, both direct and indirect tax collections robust for the current financial year. Hence, many critics are silent now on the performance of the Union Government pertinent to the economy and finance as their adverse estimations prior to and during the Covid19 have been proven as untruth though few political comments are still floating from the Congress and Left parties as a general practice in the political nature.

The size of the Budget would be expected around Rs 43 to 45 Lakh Crores for the financial year 2023 - 24 as per the growth in GDP and positive tax collections pertaining to the current financial year’s Budget 2022 - 23 at Rs. 39.45 Lakh Crores as it’s size.

As far as Revenue Deficit and Fiscal Deficit is concerned, it was projected 3.8% and 6.4% of the GDP respectively in the Budget 2022 - 23, it is well under control as per the data of the first three Quarters of the Current Financial Year. Keeping in view of Growth in tax collections and proper controls both revenue and fiscal deficits would be around less than 3% and 5% respectively for the upcoming Budget 2023 - 24 estimations. In addition to this, actual debt would be less than the estimated 16.62 Lakhs ( including interest for Rs. 9.40 Lakh Crores ) for the current financial year 2022 - 23 unless the union government requires more funds for Development expenditure in the last quarter for the current financial year.

Also Read: Part 1 | NAMO 1.0 Governance Influence Will Exist On Budget 2023-24


It appears to increase in Actual Current Account Deficit then projected in the Budget 2022 - 23 as it was reached already to 4.4% of GDP by the 2nd Quarter of the current financial year due to uncontrolled international fuel prices, Russia and Ukraine war uncertainties and increase in imports of goods and services though there has been significant growth in the exports for the same period at 15.54%, further the current account gap further widen by the end of 2022 - 23 due to prevailing international market uncertainties. But, there is a chance to significant control in the Current Account gap in the upcoming financial year 2023 -24 after advent of Rupee as accepted exchange modem for international trade by the many friendly countries of our Nation.

One of the important allocations in the Budget is for Capital expenditure, it was estimated for 7.50 Lakh Crore in the Budget 2022 - 23 as highest ever allocation and it will be continued in upcoming Budget 2023 - 24 for Rs. 9 to 10 Lakh Crores. As per the data, capital expenditure was incurred up to 60% per cent of the full-year budget target in the first eight months of the current fiscal 2022 - 23 as against 49% in the corresponding period of the previous year 2021 - 22, these actual figures denote the factual approach of the Union Government concerned to the Capital Expenditure as a utmost priority. Apart from this, Interest free incentive loans to State Governments for the encouragement of incurring more Capital expenditure was estimated for 1 Lakh Crore during the financial year 2022 - 23 and it is expected to raise to Rs. 1.50 to 2 Lakh Crore in the upcoming Budget for 2023-24 as a priority to encourage Gati Shakti Yojana Projects.

Union Government estimated the Gross Market borrowing of ₹14.31 lakh crore for the Financial Year 2022-23. Whereas, the Government of India has decided to borrow ₹14.21 lakh crore only during this financial year, which is less than 10,000 Crores than the initial anticipation. Further, the Fiscal deficit stood at Rs 9.78 lakh crore in April- November after the completion of 2/3rd of the year, it had been accounted for 58.90 per cent of the full-year target as per the information from the Controller General of Accounts.

According to the latest data for the first eight months, the Union Government’s in total receipts, net collection from taxes, stood at Rs 12.24 lakh crore or 63.30% per cent of the budget estimate during April-November for 2022-23, it nearly 10 percent raise than the last year for the same period. Data depicts that total expenditure incurred by the Union Government for the first eight months of the current fiscal year was at 62% of the Budgeted estimation, compared to 59% a year earlier.

Hence, Borrowings have been utilised for the productive expenditure since the significant control in the fiscal deficit due to the effective raise in the direct and indirect tax collections during the current financial year is the positive indicator for the consideration of upcoming Budget 2023 - 24 to estimate the future fiscal deficit more effectively.

Proposals from the public for the consideration of the upcoming Budget 2023 - 24:

A) Individuals and Salaried classes :

As far as the people of the nation from the Individuals and salaried classes expectation are concerned, the rate of Income Tax slab shall be commenced after 5 Lakhs taxable income of the assessee and taxable income above 5 Lakhs and up to 10 Lakhs shall be considered as starting bracket of income tax rate for the benefit of the lower and middle income group in the society. Apart from this, present surcharges on the taxes varies from 10% to 37% also be regulated optimistically.

B) Gareeb Kalyana Anna Yojana ( GKAY ) :

More than 81 Crore people across the nation are benefiting free food grains form this scheme and the program has been implemented since Covid19 lockdown, the scheme has been extended for further 12 months now. Hence, appropriate allocations have been expected in the upcoming Budget for smooth functioning the scheme for the benefiting the poor and needed beneficiaries as identified under National Food Security Act ( NFSA ) guidelines.

C) Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act ( MNREGA ) :

Minimum Guaranteed Rural Employment is top most priority for the Government and this program played pivotal role during the lockdown period of the pandemic and thereafter of the Post Covid 19 uninterruptedly. Hence, Funds allocation for this program shall be enhanced reasonably.

D) National Health Mission ( NHM ) - Medical Infrastructure :

Ministry of Health and Family Welfare shall be provided up to 1 Lakh Crore in the upcoming Budget 2023 -24 as an allocation, in which up to 45 thousand Crore allocation is required for the medical services in the rural and urban areas of the states. Union Government provides funds up to 90% in the Northeastern States and 60% for other states under NHM. In addition to this, approval for Medical Collage in every Parliament is very much needed

E) Industry & Infrastructure :

Most particularly, focus on the MSME sector has been expected in a true sense on the Potentially Sick and Sick units that can be revived with the finance or additional finance at concessional interest rates from the Banks and Financial Institutions where the existing units have a strong asset base to provide security for their loans or additional loans since more than 30% of Sick MSME units have strong asset base, but not obtaining the finance due to technical reasons from the Banks and Financial Institutes.

Also Read: Part 2 | NAMO 2.0 Growth & Existing Uncertainties Influence on Budget 2023

Special Industrial parks and clusters with category-wise manufacturing products shall be promoted through PPP mode at each district headquarters with modern infrastructure facilities for MSME. Similarly, encouragement for cottage industrial parks shall be provided in Rural areas. These Parks and Clusters shall be set up besides the Newly forming National Highways where Water and Electricity facilities are available.

F) Agriculture : Focus on Millets :

Prime Minister Narendra Modi had convinced the United Nations to declare the year 2023 as the International Year of Millets and He called it for being Millet grains are high nutrition food for people which easily available in the Market. As per the data, around 90% of farmers in our country is in the strata of small and marginal farmers are growing millet to a larger extent. Hence, a significant growth in the consumption of Millet as a nutritious grain will assist these small and marginal farmers financially.

Hence, Prime Minister Narendra Modi led Union Government to promote it and recently hosted a lunch for all Members of Parliament exclusively consisting of dishes prepared with millet. In the next few days, a huge number of foreign delegates are going to attend a series of meetings pertaining to the G-20 being chaired by India, Prime Minister said that millets will be on the menu for delegates to promote it in the International fraternity. In addition to this, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that Anganwadis, Schools,  and Government Programs shall be utilized the millet for their food services in the future, further people at home can be used the millet for better health. Hence, I request for the policy to encourage and promote the Millets as per the intentions of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the upcoming Budget 2023 for the benefit of the people's health and assistance for the farmers who are growing the Millets.

Further, MSP for the procurement of crops has been enhanced recently for the benefit of the farmers who are growing paddy, wheat, and other crops and most of the farmers are depending on the Crop Loans from an unorganized manner with a high-interest rate. Hence, the Union Finance Minister with the assistance of RBI shall prepare a proper plan to assist loans through Banks and Financial Institutions to the extent of maximum possible farmers and encourage financial assistance for alternative additional income sources to the farmers with ancillary activities.

PM Fasal Bima Yojana is very important for the crop insurance of the farmers to indemnify unforeseen crop damage or losses. Hence, more farmers need to cover under this scheme as many State Governments are neglecting to provide insurance procedures at the right time, which causes losses to the many farmers in the country. Hence, Union Government shall issue the proper protocols to provide the information to the farmers. Marketing of the crops by the farmers is going on through various existing systems, But it needs the sophisticated technology driven market information to the existing e-NAM for the better prices for the crop of the farmers.

G) Culture and Traditions Build up among G20 Countries:

We are honoured to be chaired in G20 Countries due to the relentless efforts of our Prime Minister Narendra Modi, We need to encourage and diffuse our traditions and culture worldwide to connect the International fraternity with us in a long-term mode. Already, every year 21st of June has recognizes as Yoga Diwas, and it becomes a popular program in the World after the suggestion of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the United Nations in his address in the year 2014. Hence, Union Finance Minister shall look into this program to attract more and more people for the Culture and Traditions of our Nation, even if required the Budget allocation in the upcoming Budget 2023 needs to consider.

H) Gatishakti Yojana:

Being 111 Lakh Crore Gatishakti Yojana Projects yield 4% to 5% additional GDP and huge employment opportunities in the coming years while implementing the Projects. Hence, the Co-Operation and Coordination between Central and State Governments while servicing the Gatishakti Yojana to achieve the end means as aspired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

I) Exports and Rupee in International Trade :

The Reserve Bank of India has taken a decision to allow the invoicing and payments for International Trade with rupees instead of dollars. Recently, our country facilitated oil imports from Russia and facilitated stronger bilateral trade where sanctions against Russia had been imposed by the US and many European countries, it has created hardships in cross-border payments due to cut of the payments system.

Apart from this, promotion of our products for exports and create a positive atmosphere among the global business entities about the Rupee. Meanwhile, the Trade Deficit has reached $35.5 Billion, which is 4.3% of GDP by the 2nd Q of the Current financial year and it may raise further significantly by end of the current financial year. it needs to observe that 85% of our fuel requirements are imported by us and it should be paid in US Dollars, sharp raise in the imported fuel prices, Coal Imports, and a raise in other imports cause a raise in the Trade Deficit. But, after the advent of the Rupee as a modem of settlement of International transactions, pressure on the Dollar requirement will come down. Hence, Union Finance Minster needs to focus on Rupee as accepted by more countries as maximum as possible to settle their transactions with our country.

I am expecting the upcoming Union Budget 2023 by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman as an “Inclusive Budget with the focus on the Growth of Industry, Service and Agriculture sectors and meaningful Welfare with the spirit of Anthyodaya and Atmanirbhar to reach as 3rd largest economy in the world with 5 Trillion USD as it’s size as per the aspirations of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi.