#SecurityScan 6 : From 'Make in India' to 'Make for World', Russia's capture of IS terrorist and Countering China's Hybrid War
All the major military powers including China, Russia, USA use private security companies for carrying out many activities which may not be possible with regular armed forces. Role of private Armies should be studied in detail for its application under Indian conditions.
NewsBharati 27-Aug-2022 17:37:12 PM
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This article is a summary of important events that have taken place in last one week affecting, India's national security. Attempt has also been made to analyze these events and recommend certain specific actions that can be undertaken by us.
INTERNAL SECURITY
Atmanirbhar Bharat: Make for World
Seven Vessels For Foreign Countries
Defence PSU Garden Reach Shipbuilders and Engineers Ltd is making seven vessels for foreign countries, out of the 23 ships that are in the different stages of construction.
GRSE, which had bagged the prestigious Rs 19,294 Crore order for the construction of three advanced stealth frigates under Project 17A for the Indian Navy, has already launched two of these ships and the construction of the third one is in full swing.
EXTERNAL SECURITY
Improving Surveillance On Land And Sea Borders
India is in an advanced stage of negotiations with the US to procure 30 MQ-9B Predator armed drones at a cost of over USD 3 billion to crank up its overall surveillance apparatus along the Line of Actual Control with China and in the Indian Ocean.
The long-endurance-hunter-killer drones are being procured for the three services as they can carry out a variety of roles including maritime surveillance, anti-submarine warfare, over-the-horizon targeting and hitting stationary ground targets.
Russia Detains IS Suicide Bomber Plotting Terrorist Attack In India
Russia's FSB identified and detained a member of the Islamic State international terrorist organization banned in Russia, a native of a country in the Central Asian region, who planned to commit a terrorist act by blowing himself up against one of the representatives of the ruling circles of India. International terrorist organizations such as is Al Qaeda, ISIS have been attempting to penetrate inside India especially in North East India and Kashmir but have been neutralized by the security forces.
Entering India through international airports via a friendly country is a new modus operandi and must be watched carefully. Intelligence cooperation with all friendly countries will nullify terror attacks from these countries.
Pakistan - A Failed State
Former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan has been charged Under Terrorism Act. The move against Imran Khan is a major escalation of the power struggle between the government and the former leader and risks renewed public unrest.
The talks of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) aka the ‘Pakistani Taliban’ with the Pakistani government have come to a halt. The collapse in talks is expected to come as a blow to the Pakistan government which is trying to keep the homegrown monster in check.
Pakistan today is faced with civil unrest, increasing violence due to various groups from Baluchistan Sindh, NWFP. Because of all the internal challenges Pakistan will continue creating violence in Kashmir to distract its people from problems at home. Kashmir will remain obsession with Pakistan for many more years.
COUNTERING CHINESE HYBRID WAR
Network of 100+ Chinese loan apps busted, 22 held
In a massive operation spanning over two months, the intelligence fusion & strategic ops unit of Delhi Police has cracked down on a Chinese loan app network and arrested 22 people for allegedly extorting money on the pretext of giving instant loans through their applications.
The network consisted of over 100 malicious apps - which have now been blocked - being used to siphon off crores in different states and stealing people's data. Chinese entities have been found directly involved.
Fifty one mobile phones, 25 hard disks and nine laptops containing voluminous data, 19 debit and credit cards, three cars and Rs 4 lakh cash had been recovered from the accused persons.
Acts of Chinese subversion of Indian Economy are being caught at regular intervals by Indian security agencies. Strict watch should be kept on Chinese activities in India.
China Is Infiltrating Kids’ Video Games With Propaganda and Spyware
Tencent’s quiet rise to global digital dominance is one of the great threats facing children online. From TikTok to Tencent and children's favorite video game, China is influencing kids and stealing private data.
It is critical that parents begin to take a more active role in curtailing what their kids are playing online.
China weaponizes psychiatry against dissent
A disturbing new report says China’s psychiatric hospitals are being used for political repression.
Chinese human rights violations must be highlighted at various world forums regularly. Anti-China sentiments globally are on the increase. India should also further strengthen its ties with Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asian countries to counter aggressive Chinese designs in various fields.
China's Weapons Exports and Private Security Contractors
China has exported weapons to 38 countries from 2018 to 2021. In addition to exporting weapons, China has exported private security contractors (PSCs) to protect and secure its interests, such as mining facilities, ports, and infrastructure projects, in other countries.
The researchers found that 48 countries received Chinese PSCs during those years, including 14 countries that received both. It shows China's influence across Asia and Africa and into Latin America.
China’s economy is slowing, its population is contracting, it is encircled by countries wary of its power, and it is an authoritarian society, with a leader who has consolidated more power than any leader in China since Mao Zedong. Countries facing such circumstances—like Germany in 1914 and Japan in 1941—often strike out to gain power and prestige.
If China can’t grow enough to keep unemployment in check then the social contract between Chinese citizens and the Communist Party of China – of endless growth and prosperity in exchange for CCP rule – will need to be replaced.
Possible invasion of Taiwan are rising as the Chinese economy stalls. The world needs to prepare for an unceasingly bellicose China that may not stop at Taiwan.
Countering China in Indian Ocean
Chinese intrusions and in the Indian Ocean will jeopardize India’s economic plans and developmental assistance programs.
India will have to impress upon the Quad members to work as a group to forge a strong anti-access strategy in the Indian Ocean and the Indo-Pacific region. Meanwhile, India should strengthen indigenous defence production, invest more in building naval capabilities, increase economic engagements with immediate and extended neighbor hoods, and conduct assertive diplomacy in the region to tackle the Chinese.
Second Fronts in Conflicts
Deterring major conflicts or bringing them to a close often requires opening “second fronts” that dissipate an enemy’s strength. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led NATO to increase its resources along the Russian border. This strategy of presenting Russia with a possible second front dilutes its strength by forcing it to commit more assets outside Ukraine.
How can India follow these tactics against China with the help of Japan and Taiwan?
Taiwan Hybrid War-Make China Fight Two Front War
As China’s threat grows over Taiwan, there are two immediate steps India can take to keep the global semiconductor chain afloat and create economic benefits for itself in the process:
Finalizing the free trade agreement with Taiwan, should be a priority both from an economic and strategic perspective to enable investment, technology-sharing, rationalization of trade duties and cooperation with Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturers.
Considering the expertise of Taiwanese companies and their desire to shift offshore which may attenuate during the conflict with China, setting up a manufacturing hub in India should be a near-term priority. This is mutually beneficial as it will help India generate revenue and jobs while Taiwan can maintain its strategic hold over the manufacturing process.
Taiwan China Hybrid War
The message from Beijing is clear from exercises, taking place within 12 nautical miles of Taiwan coast, which is Taiwan’s territorial waters .It could similarly blockade Taiwan’s airspace and waters. These actions have not been seen previously anywhere in the world.
Blockade of Taiwan would result in sanctions by the US and the EU against China. This will slow down the Chinese economy.
Japan counters China
Japan is considering the deployment of 1,000 long-range cruise missiles to boost its counterattack capability against China, the Yomiuri newspaper reported. The missiles would be existing arms modified to extend their range from 100 km (62 miles) to 1,000 km. The arms, launched by ships or aircraft, would be stationed mainly around the southern Nansei islands and capable of reaching the coastal areas of North Korea and China.
America’s Industrial Base isn’t ready for war with China
The war in Ukraine has demonstrated that America’s defense-industrial base isn’t up to the job of supplying the U.S. military with weapons for a prolonged conventional conflict with a major power such as China.
Production lines for Stinger and Javelin missiles destined for Ukraine are stretched to capacity, with critical components no longer produced in sufficient quantity to meet demand.
The industrial competencies required for sustained conventional warfare could directly undermine the U.S. military’s ability to fight a major war. The causes of these gaps vary. They range from the general decline of domestic manufacturing to Congress’s failure to ensure a predictable defense-funding cycle and from the predatory industrial policies of other nations to an assumption that America’s future wars would be quick and decisive.
India needs to study the Logistic constraints that have slowed down the Russia Ukraine war. Both USA and Russia which are big industrial powers have not been able to manufacture arms ammunition to sustain long duration war in Ukraine. This is also a lesson for India. What would be our Logistic plan to sustain a 2.5 front, long duration war with Pakistan and China? Logistic aspects need to be worked in detail and plan kept ready to fight 2.5 front war.
LESSONS FOR INDIA FROM RUSSIA - UKRAINE WAR
War in the Information Sphere
Information confrontation, is an important element of Russian military strategy in Ukraine. The Ukrainian experience offers insights into Russia's present-day and future use of information confrontation and hybrid warfare.
The Indian strategic community should study the Russian military-scientific literature to better understand Russian activities and intentions in the information domain and to gain insight into the role of information in Russian military strategy and how Russia perceives information operations. We should also examine publicly available, open-source, and unclassified Russian-language reports.
Because Ukraine is considered a testing ground for Russian subversive activities India would benefit from war literature of Ukraine and Russia. Further research is warranted to study information confrontation in hybrid warfare — that is, how it is used as an instrument of soft power and how information confrontation may take place in the future.
Russia’s spies misread Ukraine
Sensitive materials obtained by Ukrainian and other security services offer rare insight into the activities of Russia’s Federal Security Service, which bears enormous responsibility for Moscow’s failed war plan and the hubris that propelled it.
Intelligence is the first line of defence in any type of Warfare. Constant effort must be made by all security agencies to acquire actionable intelligence.
Role Wagner Private Armies of Russia
According to Ukrainian commanders, Wagner’s fighters have proven indispensable in Russia’s few successes in Donbas. Once ordered to minimize Wagner’s role, Russia’s official media is awash with reportage about the heroic exploits of the company.
All the major military powers including China, Russia, USA use private security companies for carrying out many activities which may not be possible with regular armed forces. Role of private Armies should be studied in detail for its application under Indian conditions.
Conclusion
National interest is taking priority in Indian foreign policy domain. For the first time India has voted against Russia in UNSC on the Ukraine issue on 26 August.
India seeks to make UN agencies work better and have partners around the world who would cooperate for more functional partnerships in various fields. India has moved to centre stage on issues such as climate change and trade. India has shown willingness to follow the international rules, order and laws.
In a historic first, UK has repatriated seven stolen artefacts to India. Six of the seven items, including the 11 Century stone door jams and 14th century carvings were stolen from shrines and temples in the 19th century. This is a clear indication of India’s growing clout in International relations.
India exported defence items and technology worth a record Rs 13,000 Crore in 2021-22, an impressive 54.1 per cent rise over the previous year. The country's defence exports are to the US, the Philippines and other countries in the South-East Asia, the Middle-East and Africa.
BRIG Hemant Mahajan
Passionate writer on National Security related issues, Brig Hemant Mahajan YSM (Retd) is M Sc, M Phil in Defence Studies. He joined IMA Dehradun in July 1973 and passed out as a Commissioned Officer on 15 June 1975. He was commissioned into 7 MARATHA LIGHT INFANTRY. He has served extensively in Counter Insurgency Operations in Insurgency and Terrorist prone areas of Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab and North East and has taken part in all important operations undertaken by the Army since 1975.
Brig Hemant Mahajan served in Jammu & Kashmir, in the deserts of Rajasthan, in Super High Altitude areas of Kargil and Leh, forward areas of Arunachal Pradesh. He was deployed in Punjab in ‘Operation Avert’. He was also involved in maintaining peace post ‘Operation Bluestar’ days in Punjab in the worst affected district of Gurdaspur, Taran Taran and Amritsar.He served in the areas of Darjeeling, Kurseong, Siliguri and Sikkim. He commanded his battalion 7 MARATHA LIGHT INFANTRY in Operation Rakshak in the most difficult areas of Poonch and Rajouri during the times of highest militancy. His unit was responsible for stopping terrorists from Pakistan into Jammu and Kashmir. His unit was awarded Unit Citation, 18 gallantry awards including YSM (gallantry) for the officer.