Four Months of Ukraine Conflict: Gainers and Losers

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was formed in 1949 as a military alliance to counter the USSR and to contain the spread of communism. Once the USSR disintegrated and communism ceased to be a threat, NATO lost its relevance.

 

 

 

Despite the explicit promises made by President Bush to Gorbachev in the early 1990s that NATO would not expand eastward to the Russian borders, the US did just the opposite. The Clinton administration made expansion of NATO to be a key foreign policy goal. In 1998, it invited Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic to become members of NATO. Thereafter, NATO’s eastward expansion continued unabated. It had 17 member-countries when the Soviet Union fell apart but boasts of a membership of 30 countries today. As it amounted to reneging on the promises, Russia felt cheated and insecure.

 

Admission of the Baltic countries in NATO caused immense discomfort to Russia. For, the NATO forces could now be based in Estonia whose border town Narva is just 136 km from St Petersburg. In 2007, in a speech at the Munich Security Conference, a worried Putin reminded the Western countries of their promises and pledges. His protestations were ignored. He felt humiliated.

 

Invitation to Ukraine to join NATO was the proverbial last straw for Russia. Russia considers NATO presence in Ukraine to be an existential threat. It kept begging the world to let Ukraine stay neutral without joining any block, but to no avail. As a last resort, Russia decided to secure the Ukrainian areas neighbouring its borders and inhabited by the Russian speaking people. Putin launched the ‘special military operations’ on 24 February 2022. Bitter fighting has been going on since then.

 

Although over four months have passed, no end is in sight. Russia is determined to achieve its objectives while NATO (especially the US) is hell-bent on coercing Ukraine to continue to battle the Russian forces, colossal losses being suffered by Ukraine notwithstanding. It is time to make an objective appraisal of the outcome so far.

There are four major players – the US, Russia, Europe and Ukraine. Let us see how they have fared so far – the gainers and the losers.

 

The US is the prime architect and instigator of the Ukraine conflict and continues to be its key sponsor.

The US was very unhappy to see Europe establishing trade ties with Russia and living amicably. NATO had lost its relevance and member countries were curtailing defence spending. Europe was emerging as an independent power centre. Countries like Germany and France were showing signs of breaking free of the US influence to pursue independent policies to suit their interests. Germany went ahead with Nordstream pipelines despite the US opposition. US felt that its hegemony over Europe was being challenged.

 

In addition, Russian economy was on an upswing. It was benefitting from its export of oil and gas to Europe through an extensive network of pipelines. The US was unhappy and wanted to prevent the emergence of Russia as a powerful nation to challenge its status as the sole super power. It started using Ukraine to needle Russia. Civil interest was unleashed in 2014 to overthrow the pro-Moscow regime. The new pro-West government unleashed a reign of terror in the Donbas region inhabited by the people of Russian descent and banned the use of Russian language.

 

By encouraging Ukraine to seek membership of NATO, the US forced Russia to resort to pre-emptive military action to safeguard its security interests. Consequently, the US has achieved the twin objectives of painting Russia as an expansionist monster and creating a rift between Europe and Russia.

 

The US has every reason to be happy with the direction in which the conflict is progressing. Europe has stopped talking about dissolving NATO. On the contrary, NATO has got resuscitated and is attracting newer countries like Finland and Sweden. All member countries are diverting resources to increase their defence spending. US bases in Europe remain in demand and the US hegemony of Europe continues unabated. Ukraine conflict has also provided an opportunity to the US to redeem its reputation after the fiasco of disgraceful withdrawal from Afghanistan.

The US has committed military assistance (including weapons transfer) to Ukraine amounting to USD 11 billion. It is proving to be a boon both to the US military and the US defence industry.

 

The US war reserves (stockpiles) have been lying unused for decades. As is well known, all explosives – both high and low – have a service life (akin to shelf life) after which they becomes too sensitive to be handled safely and have to be discarded, entailing enormous financial loss. The US has very cleverly supplied all those systems that were nearing the end of their service life to Ukraine in the form of military aid. Take the case of anti-tank Javelin missiles and anti-aircraft Stinger missiles. In one case, nearly 10,000 such systems of obsolescent vintage were given to Ukraine (out of the total US war reserves of 30,000). Fresh orders have since been placed on the producers to make up the US stocks. The aid is thus being ingeniously utilised to turn-over old systems of the US inventory with fresh ones with more advanced features. As massive orders are being placed on the US arms giants, they are euphoric to see their cash registers ringing.

 

By asking the European nations to shun Russian oil/gas supplies, the US is promoting the sale of its own shale products. Thus, the conflict also carries undertones of an economic war to capture markets. The US has recently struck a deal with the European leaders to increase shipments of natural gas to Europe to wean it off Russian energy.

Ukraine conflict is a war by proxy. The US does not want to cross the red-line where it gets directly pitched against Russia. Despite repeated requests from Zelenskyy, the US has refused to enforce no-fly zone over Ukraine as that would have embroiled it in the war. The US is also using the battlefield to test and perfect its new weapon systems like Switchblade drones.

 

As Doug Bandow of Cato Institute Washington has said, “America’s approach can best be described as fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian”. And, the US is pursuing its objective quite successfully. It has no intention to let Ukraine sign a peace treaty with Russia.

 

 

After the Cold War was over, it was generally expected that the European countries would shelve NATO to concentrate on economic cooperation through the European Union. Many expected Russia to be a part of the new alignments. NATO-Russia relations became relatively normalized in the immediate post-Cold War context, resulting in waning European investments in the defence sector. Europe wanted to live in peace and harmony. Russia was willing to be a partner in any architecture that ensured security and concord in Europe. Many European nations signed major deals with Russia for gas and oil.

 

Most NATO countries realised the danger of provoking and threatening Russia by incorporating East European nations in the folds of NATO. Sadly, they lacked courage to stand up to the US machinations. With the advent of the Ukraine conflict, NATO has once again become a military pact to counter Russia.

 

Europe that was living peacefully till the last year is in turmoil today. Expenditure on defence has been increased multi-fold and thousands of troops have been mobilised for active duty.

 

Europe has been coerced to donate defence equipment to Ukraine from its war reserves. More than 25 nations have joined in purchasing and delivering weapons to support Ukraine’s war effort. To make up their stocks, they are placing orders on the US arms manufacturers.

 

Russia provides about 40 percent of Europe’s natural gas, and a sizable chunk of it is shipped by pipelines through Ukraine. Under pressure from the US, Europe is being forced to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US whose price is at least 30-40 percent higher than the Russian pipeline gas, impacting their GDP. Inflation is hurting European economies and discontentment is rising.

 

Undoubtedly, Europe has been a major loser. It is facing the greatest humanitarian crisis after the World War. It has gained nothing from the Ukraine conflict. Its failure to see through the US intrigues has pushed it into the Cold War once again. Another cause for concern are the bio-labs (25-30 in number) funded by the US. In case they get shelled and pathogens get released, the whole of Europe would suffer.

 

For thirty years (1991 to 2021), Russia did not threaten or interfere in the affairs of any erstwhile Warsaw Pact country. Russia wanted Ukraine to remain neutral and act as a bridge between Europe and Russia. Ukraine’s unwillingness to do so forced Putin to launch special military operations. The stated objective was to force Ukraine to remain neutral; protect the people's republics of Donetsk and Luhansk; and to ‘demilitarise and de-Nazify Ukraine’.

 

Russia has not deviated from its objectives. It has restricted its operations to western and southern areas of Ukraine. Despite enjoying total domination of the air, Russia has exercised incredible restraint. It has not attempted to capture the area outside its objectives. Kyiv and other major cities in the west have not been shelled. Putin is keeping the door open for a peaceful settlement.

 

Russia has been pursuing its military aims with a single-minded determination and has been incredibly successful, negative propaganda by the biased Western press notwithstanding. It has captured 90 percent of the Donbas region, thereby securing its western borders. Land route has been opened to Crimea. Major port cities have been captured. Slowly and steadily, the Russian forces are moving towards Odessa. Once the complete shoreline is secured, Russia will link up its new Novorossiyan territories with Transnistria. Equally importantly, it has captured/decimated the ruthlessly inhumane Azov Regiment.

 

It must not be forgotten that Russia is fighting the might of the US and NATO who have provided their latest weaponry to Ukraine. Trainers and operators from the NATO countries are helping the Ukrainians to operate the systems. A large number of mercenaries from the US and some European countries are involved in actual combat. Real time intelligence is being provided by the US satellites. In short, the US and NATO are fighting Russia without committing their manpower. If Ukraine has been able to slow down the Russian advance, NATO’s support has played a major part.

 

Russia has played its cards very well. Knowing the reluctance of the West to get embroiled in real fighting, Russia has been handing out dissuasive threats at frequent intervals. It has given a new meaning to the concept of nuclear deterrence. It wants nuclear deterrence to ‘prevent the escalation of hostilities and facilitate its cessation on conditions favourable to Russia’. This approach has been termed as ‘escalate to de-escalate’ strategy – coercing the adversary to de-escalate by threatening to escalate to nuclear use.

 

Although IMF foresees Russian economy suffering a deep recession, there are no signs of that as yet. On the contrary, the value of rouble is ruling high – it was trading at 74.5 to a dollar before the conflict in January but appreciated to 53.2 on 27 Jun. As Europe cannot do without Russian oil/gas, exports remain unaffected.

It is almost certain that any future peace accord would be signed on Russian terms. Russia would never vacate the areas that it has occupied at a huge cost of resources and manpower. Donbas would certainly vote to be a part of Russia. Land bridge to Crimea and extending westward to Transnistria would impart strength to the southern flank. Russia would emerge stronger and more confident. It got an opportunity to secure its western borders and it has utilised it fully.

 

 

In addition to the massive human toll, over 5 million Ukrainians have fled the country and become refugees. A quarter of population has been rendered homeless. According to Zelenskyy, between 100 and 200 Ukrainian soldiers are getting killed every day and close to 500 are getting wounded.

 

Buildings have been flattened and cities have become heaps of rubble. Infrastructure has been wrecked. Ports and airports have been rendered non-functional. Major highways and bridges have been destroyed. The economic damage has been colossal. Ukraine’s war-ravaged economy could shrink by up to 45 percent this year.

One fifth of the Ukrainian territory is already under the control of the Russian forces. Zelenskyy is now publicly sceptical about the resolve of the West. “What is NATO doing? Is it being run by Russia?” a frustrated President Zelenskyy asked on 26 March, “Ukraine needs tanks, planes, anti-aircraft-defense and anti-ship missiles. Our allies have these resources, but they prefer to allow them collect dust in their warehouses. We are only asking for 1 per cent of what NATO has, nothing more.”

 

In fact, Zelenskyy has become disillusioned with the West and has started distrusting it. After having suffered so much damage, many European governments and experts are advising him to seek a ceasefire with Russia and be reconciled with the loss of Donbas region and the southern coastline. Hints are being dropped that the lost territories can never be regained by Ukraine in a battlefield. The West appears to be getting tired of the ongoing conflict as it is hurting them economically. Energy and commodity prices—including wheat and other grains—have surged, adding to inflationary pressures from supply chain disruptions. It appears that Ukraine will not be able to continue for long. Sooner or later, it will be forced to cede to Russia the areas that it wants.

 

Zelenskyy failed to see the writing on the wall and has led his country to its doom. The West has been cleverly massaging his ego, equating him with the wartime hero Churchill. Heads of NATO states have been visiting him regularly to show solidarity, lest he vacillates and seeks peace with Russia. Whatever be the end of the conflict, Ukraine will never get back the areas captured by Russia. It will have to be satisfied with a truncated land-locked country. One can only shed a tear for Ukraine and feel sorry for having elected an incompetent leadership.

 

 

February 2022 will be remembered as a turning point in the history of Europe – a peaceful continent that had erased the scars of the World War and the Cold War was thrown into turmoil once again. The dreaded Iron Curtain is back. Economy is taking a hit. Although Ukraine is a human tragedy of enormous proportions, everyone in not unhappy.

For the US, Ukraine is a foreign policy success – a dying NATO has been resuscitated, hegemony over Europe has been re-established, Russian war-potential is getting degraded, obsolescent stocks of war reserves have been palmed off to Ukraine as aid, and fresh orders have been placed on the military-industrial clique for modern systems to make up the inventory.

 

Russia has grabbed the opportunity, unwittingly presented by the US, to secure its western flanks and cut Ukraine to size. With the Russian speaking populace controlling the Donbas region, it has been able to remove a major threat to its national security. Russia has also demonstrated the leverage that it holds in terms of food security of the world and oil/gas supplies to Europe. It is not easy to put it down.

 

Although Europe and Ukraine are the major affected parties, they cannot decide about the conflict. It is the US that holds the whip of a ring master and will not allow Ukraine to seek peace. As Richard Black declared portentously and worrisomely, “As long we want the war to continue, we will fight that war, using Ukrainians as proxies, and we will fight it to the last Ukrainian death”.

 

Only the Ukrainians are to blame for their plight. They elected Zelenskyy, a naïve, immature and imprudent leader who got taken in by the sweet talk of the US. In the process, he allowed the US to use Ukraine as a pawn in its geo-strategic intrigues, in pursuit of its single point agenda of world domination, whatever be the cost. Ukraine is just a stick to beat the Russians with. Devastation of a thriving country like Ukraine means little to the US. Zelenskyy failed to comprehend this simple fact and has led his country to its current state of ruination.*