How Macron's victory assures Europe's unity

“The purpose of NATO was "to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.” These were the legendary words by Hastings Ismay, the first Secretary General of NATO.

 

 

 

In the recently concluded Presidential elections, President Emmanuel Macron got re-elected. The election took place at a time when Russia not just invaded Ukraine but it was 2 months into the conflict. With the departure of Angela Merkel from German politics, Emmanuel Macron is now the most senior and influential leader in the EU. France is also one of the permanent members of UNSC. (United Nations Security Council) France is also a major powerhouse of Defence manufacturing as well as Nuclear energy and weapons. In this context, France is extremely important for India. Which is why it is important for us to understand the results of this election in a wider perspective of geopolitics.

 

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On 10th April 2022, the first round of presidential election was held. In this round no candidate could secure more than 50% votes, because of which the second round of presidential election was conducted among top 2 candidates of the first round, according to the French electoral system. In the first round, Emmanuel Macron secured 27.9% votes while Marine Le Pen secured 23.2% votes. Other candidates also secured a significant number of votes but these two candidates were front runners who qualified for the second round. On 24th April, the second round of the election was held in which Emmanuel Macron secured 58.5% of votes and Marine Le Pen secured 41.5% votes. This was a remarkable drop for Macron and a sharp increase for Le Pen from their performance in the previous election of 2017, where they secured 66% and 34% respectively. Regardless of the improvements, Macron secured victory quite easily and became the first president of France to win consecutive elections after 20 years.

 

  

 

But the elections in France have changed dramatically. We saw the beginning of this change back in 2017 itself, but this election cemented the shift. In this election, especially in the second round, french people had 2 candidate, one who showed Mohammad’s (Propet of Islam) cartoons on Bibliothèque nationale de France (national liberary of France) building, after a Chechen terrorist killed (behaded) a teacher named Samuel Paty in Paris. He also made a law against Islamist extremism and the French National assembly dominated by his party ( La République En Marche! LREM) passed the law in February 2021. On the other hand there was Marine Le Pen, who has spoken against radical islam for years now. Recently, on 14th April, before the second round, she also announced that she will ban hijab in public places if she got elected. Le Pen has been alleged to be an ‘islamophobic’ an allegation, she wears as a badg of honour. Which is why in this election, for the second round, she was endorsed by Eric Zemmour (another alleged ‘islamophobe’) who received 7.1% votes in the first round.

 

 

 

However, the basic difference between these two candidates which would concern a foreigner, is that Macron is pro European Union (EU) while Lep Pen is anti EU. Until very recently she was also supporting Frexit (a French version of Brexit). If France gets out of the EU, Germany will remain the only major power in the EU. This will have severe economic as well as security consequences in the richest continent on the planet. An anti EU and more independent approach by Le Pen, would mean the dark old days of Britain and France being out of Central and eastern european politics and Europe returning to a split between Germany and Russia. Macron’s reelection has ensured that this will not happen until 2027 at least. But the increased vote share of Le Pen backed by her policies is a threat to European financial as well as geopolitical security. Which will have a trickle down impact on the world at large. Especially, when Russia emerges from its shadows after 30 years. Which means centuries old geopolitics of Europe will return with its barbaric and senseless slaughter and destruction.

 

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For more than 75 years, NATO successfully avoided a major war between major powers. A continent with a two thousand years of history filled with wars was largely at peace for the first time or such a long time. If this peace is to continue, Hastings Ismay’s words would have to be followed by keeping the Russians out, the Americans in and the Germans down. Because if the history of European warfare tells us anything, it is two thumb rules. Never invade Russia and never give a gun in a German hand.