Is BJP losing ground in Maharashtra?

In the recently concluded Kolhapur North by-election, Congress' candidate Jayashree Jadhav won by almost 19 thousand votes. The BJP candidate, Satyajit Kadam, managed to secure around 78 thousand votes which was nowhere near Congress’ 96 thousand votes. From this result itself it would be easy to conclude that BJP was soundly defeated in this election. Some might also say that there is an anti Modi wave across the country as BJP lost all these by elections in Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and West Bengal. But as always, we must look at the details to find the truth.

 

 

 

Kolhapur district itself is a politically challenging district for BJP. Kolhapur is one of the southernmost districts of western Maharashtra, which is supposed to be the stronghold of NCP and traditionally the Congress party. In this particular constituency of Kolhapur north, former MLA, Chandrakant Jadhav won this election in 2019 by over 15 thousand votes. In that election, BJP and Shivsena contested in an alliance in which Shivsena was contesting in this constituency. The alliance candidate of NDA (BJP + Shivsena), Rajesh Kshirsagar, got nearly 76 thousand votes, which was much below Congress’s 91 thousand votes.

 

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The 2014 assembly election was the first time in decades that BJP contested this seat, as there was no alliance in that election. In that election Shivsena won that seat with a margin of over 22 thousand votes by getting around 70 thousand votes. Congress was the runner up with over 47 thousand votes and BJP was at third position with just 40 thousand votes. While NCP was a distant fourth with just below 10 thousand votes.

 

 

 

In 2019 assembly elections, BJP did not contest the election as there was an alliance with Shivsena. Shivsena, in an alliance with BJP got 75 thousand votes but was defeated by the Congress with over 91 thousand votes, which was also in alliance with NCP.

 

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Now between the 2019 election and 2022 by-election a lot has changed in Maharashtra politics. MVA (Maha Vikas Aghadi) has come to power. Shivsena broke the ties with the BJP after the result and formed an alliance with Congress and NCP to get the CM’s position. Since then almost all the by-elections in Maharashtra were BJP vs MVA combined.

 

 

 

The odds against BJP were enormous. In the last 35 years BJP had contested in this constituency only once in 2014, when it was distant third. The winner and the runner up of that election were contesting in an alliance in this 2022 by-election and even the distant fourth party of 2014 election, NCP was also in the same alliance. BJP was contesting a by-election, after the incumbent MLA’s death against the late MLA’s wife. In almost all such cases across India, family members get sympathy votes and win handsomely. Being a By-election, ruling party (MVA) always has an edge as it can use state resources unofficially and also employ many tactics which it can deny later. By-elections also don't change the government, so the incentive for a voter to go out and vote is always less. The BJP wins an election when the voter turnout is high. In this case, despite being a By-election voter turnout did not fall, which means the sympathy vote went out to vote and voted for Congress candidate.

 

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Now, in this situation, BJP has managed to secure over 77 thousand votes and over 43% votes. Of course, this vote is not enough for BJP to win this time, but BJP would be quite happy with the result. BJP managed to get such a large number of votes in a by-election, during sympathy wave, in a constituency which is supposed to be the stronghold of one party, where BJP’s former ally used to contest all the time, which winning party had an incumbent and all three of them are in the government. In such a scenario, BJP has managed to secure more votes than Shivsena candidate did in 2019 when it lost, and in 2014, when it won.

 

 

 

This result has also shown a very interesting thing. Outside of Mumbai and Thane, Shivsena voters are willing to vote for BJP if Shivsena is not contesting the election. For years, it was assumed that Shivsena voters would vote for whichever candidate Thackreys asked them to vote for. In this by-election, Uddhav Thackrey appealed to his voters and asked them to vote for Shivsena. Had that actually happened, the combined votes of Congress=NCP+Shivsena should have been at least 1,27,000 votes even if we go by 2014 figures when everyone was contesting on their own and not 2019. Clearly, that hasn't worked. This means in Marathwada, Parth of Western and Northern Maharashtra, the old ‘Yuti’ (BJP-Shivsena) voter can vote for BJP to defeat Congress and NCP. This is exactly the opposite of what MVA leaders hoped would happen and exactly what BJP thought would happen. When 3 major parties of Maharashtra, Congress, NCP and Shivsena come together and contest an election in an alliance, all of them get less than a 100 seats to contest. Which means each party has more than 50 leaders across Maharashtra who will be unhappy for denying party ticket. In such a scenario, if voters can also turn to BJP, then the MVA will be looking down the barrel.

 

 

 

Which is why, this result of Kolhapur North by-election is telling us more about the future of Maharashtra politics than it tells us about the current situation in this particular constituency.