Russian Victory March And Mop Up In Ukraine
NewsBharati 30-Mar-2022 17:21:54 PM
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Within the first 24 hours of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, all Ukrainian Ground Radar Intercept capabilities were wiped out. Without those radars, the Ukrainian Air Force lost its ability to do air to air intercepts. In the intervening three weeks, Russia has established a de facto No Fly Zone over Ukraine. While still vulnerable to shoulder-fired Surface-to-Air Missiles supplied by the U.S. and NATO to the Ukrainians, there is no evidence that Russia has had to curtail Combat Air Operations.
Russians arrived in Kyiv within three days of the invasion. In Second World War, German “Operation Barbarossa” took seven weeks to reach Kyiv and seven more weeks to subdue the city. Adolf Hitler was not required to pull punches to avoid civilian casualties while destroying critical infrastructure. Russia was not bogged down as claimed by a few Western and Indian military experts. She had positioned her Troops around 60 kilometers North of Kyiv for more than a week before the actual attack. She had eliminated Ukraine’s strategic and tactical ability to launch significant Military Operations before the actual assault commenced. If Ukrainian Artillery was intact, then that Russian Column was easy pickings for massive destruction. But that did not happen. If Ukrainian Air Force’s had a viable Fixed or Rotary Wing capability they should have destroyed that column from the air. That too did not happen. If Ukraine had a viable cruise Missile Capability, they should have rained down-solid fire on all stalled Russian Columns. That also did not happen. Ukrainians could not mount even a significant Infantry Ambush of the column with their newly supplied U.S. Javelins, except for some individual Armor kills.
The scale and scope of the Russian attack were evident from the sizeable Captured Territory in three weeks that is larger than the United Kingdom. They then proceeded to carry out targeted attacks on Key cities and Military Installations. There is NO single instance of a Ukrainian Regiment or Brigade size unit attacking and defeating a comparable Russian Unit. On the other hand, the Russians were able to split Ukrainian Army into fragments and cut their Lines of Communication. Russians are now, consolidating control of Mariupol and have secured all approaches on the Black Sea, cutting off Ukraine in the South and North. A very significant achievement on the 13th and 14th of March 2022 was when Russian Hypersonic Missile Strikes took place on Yavoriv and Zhytomyr, respectively. Russian “High Precision, Air-Launched Missiles” struck a facility in west Ukraine killing more than 300 Local Troops and Foreign Mercenaries which included American and British Military/Intelligence Personnel, and hundreds more wounded. Many suffered catastrophic wounds, such as amputations, and are in hospital. Russia used the good old Cauldron Technique, “Surround the Enemy and heat them up with constant bombardment until they give up”.
Yavoriv was an important forward base for NATO wherefrom, the American 7th Army Training Command was operating Russia hit another site, Delyatyn, which is 100 kilometers southeast of Yavoriv and Zhytomyr, another site where NATO previously had a presence. The next target was a Special Operations Training Center located near Ovruch which is just 24 kilometers from Polish Border. NATO Military Instructors were conducting Cyber Security Training at Zhytomyr. It was the Primary Training and Logistics Center of NATO and EUCOM from where they used to supply Fighter Air Crafts and Weapons to Ukraine. Ukraine suffered a large number of Military and Civilian casualties at these places. Very strange thing was, there were no Air Raid Warning and/or shutdown of Attacking Missiles during these attacks. These attacks have both, shocked and alarmed NATO. Putin has sent a very clear message;” NATO Forces in Ukraine will be viewed and treated as combatants”.
Media world over, especially Western Media, are trying hard to show that Ukraine is/can prevail against Russia. If is it a propaganda campaign, I for one, cannot fathom the reason. But it pains when Military Experts, especially from India, also follow suit. The reason is simple. In reality, war is over for Ukraine. She has been ground into bits, in spite of what we hear from Western/World Media. 1992 onwards, America and NATO were creeping towards the East on Russian Borders without provoking a reaction. NATO and EUCOM regularly carried out Military Exercises, provided Offensive Military Training to 12 Countries that were admitted to NATO post-1992, and supplied Critical Military Equipment to these countries. America/CIA was reportedly providing paramilitary training to Ukrainian Units operating in the Donbas Area.
America has desperately banned ‘All Things Russian’ and at the same time, tried to bully China, India, and Saudi Arabia to do so. But to date, none of them has fallen into Line. Ongoing propaganda seems to have united the majority of Russians behind Putin and her Army is getting ready to dig in for a long struggle. Severe Economic Sanctions by Western Countries on Russia have failed to bring her to her knees. The reason is, Russia is self-sufficient and is not dependent on Imports. On the contrary, her exports are critical to the economic well-being of the West. If they withhold wheat, potash, gas, oil, palladium, finished nickel, and other key minerals from the West, the European and U.S. economies will be savaged and maybe, the role of the American Dollar as International Reserve Currency may/will soon fade into oblivion. In 2013, Putin has objected/ questioned the American role as an “Architecture of Global Security”. His security issues have culminated in a Full-blown War in Ukraine. In December 2021, Putin made a few demands related to Russian Security, in that, he wanted written Assurances/Guaranties that NATO expansion would not include Ukraine and Nuclear Missile Systems would not be deployed in countries from Romania or Poland. But American Administration shrugged them off and NATO never responded. If they do not respond, maybe, Putin may want to deploy comparable Russian systems in Cuba, Venezuela, and Mexico. Now Putin has blamed America and the West for funding Bio Labs in Ukraine.
“How will this end and what will be the Geographic End State Of The War In Ukraine” is the question to which nobody except Putin can give an answer. Russia is following the dictum of Field Marshal Mikhail Kutuzov during the Napoleonic invasion of Russia, “Moscow is just a city full of buildings, as long as the Russian Army exists somewhere, the French can never be sure of victory”. That is why Russia is bent on destroying Ukrainian Army first, leaving the cities alone. She is also following General Carl von Clausewitz’s Theory of Strategic Traditions, “War is the continuation of policy with other means”. Putin is likely to impose his own Territorial Settlement on Ukraine in order to reinforce Russian Security and bring the hostilities to an end. Russia may eventually partition Ukraine along the Dnieper River and South along the coast that holds a majority ethnic Russian Population. This would eliminate Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and create a land bridge towards the Moldavian breakaway Transnistria which is under Russian protection. The rest of Ukraine would be a land confined, mostly agricultural state, disarmed and too poor to be built up to a new threat to Russia anytime in the future. Politically it would be dominated by fascists from Galicia which would then become a major problem for the European Union and NATO. The primary Objective of Putin is to secure Russia from Foreign Threats, affect a divorce of Ukraine from the West and install Russian Supported Government in Ukraine. He has the physical resources to affect that vision come true.
But the question is, will most Ukrainians accept a Russian-supported Government? Will the Russians have to occupy the country for long? Or will some settlement be reached with Ukraine, a settlement amiable to Russia? The last option will be the best. Occupying Ukraine could be much more difficult. Russians will have more problems in Western Ukraine where they are likely to face a serious insurgency if they plan to occupy it even though most of the Ukrainian Army is in Eastern Ukraine. Without any German or American support, Banderists/Ukrainian Nationalists fought Stalin for Ukrainian Independence for 11 years after World War Two ended, leading to the deaths of 100000 odd people. Therefore, the best bet for Russia is to commit regime change in Ukraine, liberate Donetsk and Luhansk as Independent Republics, open the water supply to Crimea and then leave. Any long-term occupation of Western Ukraine may make it an Afghanistan-like situation.
This is a new Communist Strategy. China is waiting and watching from the wings. Her future War Plans will depend on the reactions of America and NATO Countries to Russian moves. If Russia succeeds, China will venture out towards Taiwan and Ladakh in India. Taiwan because she considers that it belongs to her and India because she considers our participation in QUAD and growing Strategic Relations with America detrimental to her security. We have to be prepared for that. Ladakh is akin to Ukraine in all respects and the Chinese have amassed their Troops in Tibet as Russia has done in Belarus and her border with Ukraine.
Colonel Abhay Patwardhan (Retd)
Colonel Abhay Balkrishna Patwardhan (Retd) did his BA in Political Science, B Sc in Biology, M Sc and M Phil in Defence Studies, and MBA in Finance and HR. He got commission in the Special Frontier Force and Commanded 19 Jat Regiment. In his 36-year service with the Army, he handled the insurgency in Nagaland, Mizoram, Khalistan and Kashmir; participated in the 1971 Indo-Pak war; trained the Mukti Bahini, and participated in Operation Blue Star at the Golden Temple in Amritsar in 1984. He also served as member of the IPKF in Sri Lanka, Commanded a battalion in Tawang, and received Unit Citation for Outstanding Ops against the Chinese in 1990-92.
He served as Instructor in Defence Services College at Wellington; Director of Training at Hq DG, NCC, New Delhi as In charge of the Republic Day Parade and Student Foreign Exchange Program. He received two medals for valour. Besides, he authored a “Reference Book on Disaster Management” in 2001 under Ministry of Defence. The book was released by then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Defence Minister George Fernandez.
Col Patwardhan has authored six books in Marathi on Military aspects. He regularly writes in newspapers and magazines, gives lectures and presentations, participate in television debates on matters related to military, security and terrorism. He has been a visiting faculty in National Defence College and National Fire Service College on security and disaster management. He offers free guidance for entry to Defence Forces, Para Military forces, Police, and Service Selection Board interviews. So far 47 candidates have qualified as Officers and 14 as Personnel below the officer rank in defence forces and 39 in para-military forces and police. He is also member on various government bodies/organizations on various aspects of security and disaster management.