All Political Parties have some lessons from December 2022 Election results

Even as the 2023 assembly elections loom over us in the coming year, this year ends with a series of elections that have given seemingly conflicting lessons for the political parties.

One would not like to put Delhi municipal elections at the same level as state assembly elections. However, since it signifies the further strengthening of a rising new party like AAP, one can consider as an important signpost, especially as the city happens to be the capital of Bharat.

The clear indication given by the voter is that mere propaganda will not work, they wish to see work on the ground. The voter has become more discriminating.

BJP NCR region had seemingly reconciled itself to the loss of Delhi. In the hindsight, it seems that it relied more on overhyped marketing by AAP in SM and MSM, with its real or imaginary achievements. However, the voter surprised everyone. AAP was able to scrape through with just two percent aggregate votes. BJP scored better than expected. It indicated that voters were not impressed by the overhyped achievements of AAP, nor did they write off BJP. Had BJP read the voter right (for which it needed to be among them at least six months prior to elections on the streets, they could have exposed the hollowness of AAP claims and also projected its good work and turned the tide. Instead of talking about its work in MCD, BJP focused on corruption. It also underestimated the voter loyalty to Modi and its own ground-level network. Thus, BJP gifted away Delhi to AAP.

The decimation of Congress shows how important is perception management. A party that led Delhi's growth so well and held reigns of power for two decades is on the verge of extinction because people believe that it is no more interested in politics or ruling, and they are abandoning it. The warning is clear. Parties better deliver or perish.

In Himachal Pradesh local Congress leadership refused to give up despite national leadership being in a mood of abdicating its role in power or electoral politics and the result are for all to see. Further, voting percentage shows that BJP was neck and neck in voting percentage but the final seat count is disproportionately higher in favor of Congress. Poor candidate management resulted in huge dissatisfaction among its local leaders and aspirants saw nearly 30% rebels in a small state like HP – 21 among 68 constituencies which are unprecedented. Thus, the Modi magic couldn’t be transferred into victory and BJP faced a highly avoidable loss. Thus, not just good work but managing a party that people are flocking to as it is seen as an unbeatable party is equally important for a powerful party that everyone wants to join in search of power and pelf.

In Gujarat, a ruling party increased its voting percentage to an unprecedented 54% after 27 years of rule, especially after a huge mishap in Morbi is unbelievable. Any other party after a Morbi-like accident would have perished, but BJP not just survived but actually went on to score a stunning victory. Modi played a huge part in this, no doubt. But, as Harsh Sanghavi, a rising young BJP leader noted, it is not just ‘satta’ (power politics) but ‘sambandh’ (relationship, bonding) that the party has managed to build with the people of Gujarat. It also showed that mishaps like Morbi are overlooked when the voter sees the overall results of development on the field. It was the development work that was celebrated, along with the pride of giving the nation a PM who works day and night for the, whose image is untainted.

The overhyped campaign of AAP went against it. Instead of humbly suggesting to the voters that they will provide better and more active opposition as compared to the non-functioning Congress party, it chose to show itself as the next ruling party. As its hype was exposed, it lost the public empathy for a young party. Congress leadership, yet again, showed no interest in a state that has given Congress consistent support, even if as the main opposition. Last time Congress had nearly stolen BJP’s clothes. Instead of encashing, it chose to abdicate and let AAP take away its voters. At the same time, voters did not let AAP swell its head with success and made it be only number three party with 10% votes.

The portends of this round of elections are that the road to 2024 is still open for the opposition. If it wishes to mount a challenge to the unbeatable pole star of Indian politics and his party and wishes to be back in the game at the national level; it will need to be constructive and not just keep quibbling on every government policy, keep raising fake issues rather than on substantive issues. This will decide its fate.

I say the road to 2024 is still open for the opposition because in 2023 there are 5 major state assembly elections. Of these, four have major Congress stakes. If it is able to claw its way back into the reckoning, it will remain an important factor in 2024 with whom other opposition parties will need to do business as all other parties are regional parties with limited presence. Big question is, is the national leadership of Congress willing to work hard in a focused manner instead of wasting its energy on dead topics like Hindutva criticism? Hindutva has been accepted by the Bharatiya people. By trying to find its base in a jaded discredited struggle, it is only creating negativity for itself. The day it decides to go back to the original Congress issues of resolving people’s issues, it will be able to rebuild over 19% votes that it has nationally. AAP will still be a party with a scattered presence and can’t be the main challenger in 2024. Will wisdom dawn on opposition to focus on real issues rather than behave like an irrational querulous neighbor who fights on any pretext?

For BJP, the challenge is of a different type. Its humongous size and seemingly unbeatable election machine will keep attracting professional political leaders who are out there only to get power. It needs to retain a balance between rewarding loyal party workers and giving space to new entrants. It cannot be seen as more welcoming to newcomers at the cost of its loyal workers. If that happens, more Himachal Pradesh(s) can happen which is not a good scenario, especially if Modi ji decides to take a back seat after some years.

This election has raised many points to be pondered over for all the political parties and it is for them to draw a lesson. If they don’t, the cost of learning these lessons will be much higher, maybe another 5 years in the wilderness and waiting for things to change by sheer force of nature.