Lessons from the East XX: Demographics – Cure or Curse?
NewsBharati 14-Dec-2022 16:07:30 PM
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How can an equilibrium be achieved between economic growth & depleting resources?
At what point in time, does a country’s demographic dividend turn into a demographic disaster?
Amid a chaotic world, ever-rising geo-political tensions, and perpetually changing technology, where does India stand with its 1.41 billion nationals?
The backdrop nope, it's reality
Fatima and Nusrat along with their six children waited and then Nusrat started handing over the set of documents one by one to the passport officer. Fatima and Nusrat cladded in Black Burkas from head to toe with their eyes being the only part of the body that the passport officer could see.
He politely asked the whereabouts of the father of the children whose passports were applied for. The prompt answer came from Nusrat as - "Saudi". The passport officer stared at Fatima and her four children with a question mark in his eyes. Nusrat gently nodded and meekly uttered Saudi.
Fatima evidently couldn’t read or write and was given the task of managing the children. Nusrat was handing over the file and documents one by one to the passport officer. The queue behind the ladies and the children was getting longer as the time to scrutinize every document was getting lengthier.
Suddenly a child started to cry and another started rolling on the floor and a third sat down on the floor. Children seemed to be tired, underweight, and undernourished. The lady guard promptly came and assisted the women with the children, but no respite. One woman managing six children seemed to be an impossible task.
The queue behind started getting impatient and started requesting the Passport Officer to hurry up. The passport officer didn’t lose his calm and managed to verify the documents and advised on the documents that were missing.
By the end of it all, the women were angry, the children were exasperated and the people in the queue were furious.
What seems to be a scene or a backdrop of an incident is real. This reality strikes when one applies for school admission, when one applies for admission to a hospital for a bed, for a job, for travel ticket booking, and even when one needs to pursue one's near and dear one's last rights.
Everywhere there is a struggle, chaos, or hustle when one is seeking basic material things, essential for one's meaningful existence.
At the time of India’s Independence, the population of the country stood at ~ 340 million or 34 Crores. The world population then stood at 2.41 billion or 241 Crores. In other words, the country’s population stood at ~ 14.11 % of the global human population.
In 75 years, the country’s population has jumped by over four times, and today India contributes to ~18% of the world population.
From 1500 onwards, India's population (including that of Pakistan and Bangladesh) was always higher than 20% of the world population.
The below chart shows ~ % of the Indian population since 1500 till about today.
Then why this hue and cry?
The worry comes from aspects that are missing today and all thanks to the systematic subjugation of Indians by Britishers. Some of them have been enunciated below.
1. Complete Self-Reliance
Till the early 19th century, there were ~ seven and a half lac villages in Bharat. Almost all of them were self-sufficient, producing ~ 2000 types of goods like cloth, pots, shoes, weapons, etc. Services such as healthcare (presence of a Vaidya or an ayurvedic doctor), as well as education institutions (Gurukuls), existed in every hamlet.
The only product that was not produced in a village and was brought from outside was salt. Cities thrived on villages as excess produce, post village consumption was sold in cities to national and international traders.
This is not the case in modern Bharat (today's India), where packaged food, soaps, shampoos, and utilities of urban India are penetrating and controlling rural Bharat. The world is getting urbanized and so is India. The reverse of the ancient period is being witnessed - with Cities now supporting the rural economy.
Despite the large population in terms of the overall percentage back then 200 years ago, the Indians were prosperous and well-heeled with all children of the motherland being well taken care of at all points in time.
2. Share in the global marketplace for goods -
Since time immemorial, Bharat was an export-oriented oriented, manufacturing-led, and rural-dominated economy contributing ~ 27% of the total Global GDP till the late 18th century. Goods from Bharat reigned the World having a market share of ~ 30% till the mid-18th Century.
This paramountcy was across products from muslin to cotton, to yarn, to steel, etc. Today the share of Indian goods exported to the rest of the world stands at 2.1% and the contribution of GDP by India to the Global GDP is at a mere 3.28%. Thus Bharat of old times nurtured and encouraged the blooming of various civilizations through its goods and output.
3. Systems and Processes – Tamper-proof Temple Oriented economy
Temples existed in every village and every city in Bharat and they acted as the center of learning, a place of guidance for achieving Moksha (Salvation), and a mode that ensured the movement in the ever-revolving economy.
The wealthy donated generously to the temples, for the temple's upkeep, and towards the temple treasure. During the lean period, these funds were used back for society's well-being. During good times, temple treasures were generously filled by people.
Temples that are thought of as places for prayers and worship were usually developed with a holistic approach, as an arena of cultural activity. Florists, musicians, artists, painters, and sculptors all thrived on account of the temple.
Temple also provided food to the needy as well as brought cohesiveness and a sense of belongingness to every resident of the town or the village acting as an economic guardian and support system. This temple-oriented economy got decimated especially in the last two centuries.
These were some of the many socio-economic systems that secured the sustenance of a vibrant and progressive economy.
This is about the past. What about the present, when many of these ancient valuable systems are being brought down or have been methodically broken down?
Why on one hand there is exuberance from the World community of India being a big market opportunity - Too big to miss at the same time, why common Indian is still getting attracted to freebies politics for its basic sustenance?
Why do a few economists around the globe start murmuring that India is at a critical juncture where the population surge, if not channelized well, or if the population blast goes out of control, can convert demographic dividend into a demographic disaster?
Some of the factors that one is and should be perturbed about are -
1. Poor division or allocation of resources –
India’s birth rate has been declining at a steady pace with current numbers standing at 1.71%. However rural India has seen a higher birth rate as compared to urban India. A refined measure of birthrate is children born to thousand women aged between 15-49 years (generally the childbearing age of a woman). Here one can see that the fertility rate in rural areas is far higher at 73.7 versus a national average of 67 and 53.7 in the urban areas for every thousand women.
The conundrum is that per capita income in rural areas is far lower than the urban areas, which also means the disposable income in the hands of parents to take care of the children is low. Thus the ills of malnutrition, perinatal mortality, or High maternal mortality still infest and are perpetuated with every drought, every natural calamity, and with every disruption notably in the rural context.
2. Brain Drain -
One of the evils of the high population is the subtle brain drain. As resources deteriorate under the pressure of a rising populace, the most talented, the most equipped, and the most skillful leave the country looking for a better opportunity, sometimes for a better & judicious utilization of specialized skills and surely for a better lifestyle and standard of living.
These educated minds and skilled workforce then contribute to the immigrating nations' Growth and GDP for never to come back, with India losing its valuable human resources that could have brought back or added to the prosperity of the worse (or lower) half of the population in Indian socio-economic classification.
One of the studies conducted by The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in conjunction with the World Economic Forum stated that as of 2020, an estimated 120 million migrants are living in OECD countries, with at least 30% of these people highly educated. OECD is an international, intergovernmental economic organization of 38 countries and is perceived to be the group of the most developed nations in the world with the highest per-capita income.
Out of these 120 million migrants, or 12 crores, 30 to 35 per cent, or ~ 4 Crores of these migrants are considered highly educated, which means, they have received vocational or academic training or are well-educated with professional or postgraduate degrees.
As of 2015 - 2016, among the immigrants from India leaving for OECD nations, the share of those considered of high education status was nearly 65 per cent. China had a rate of 48.6 per cent of highly educated migrants in the OECD.
In simpler words when the world has seen one person amongst 3 of high calibre leaving the home country to work and settle in OECD countries, India witnessed an exodus of two well-educated, well-trained, talented persons for every three people leaving the motherland for better personal prospects.
One study showed that nearly 50% of board exams Class 10th and Class 12th Toppers from 1996 to 2015, left India and are employed overseas.
In other words, these Indians are trained and educated in India, and after their foundation is built in India, the benefit of the foundation is being reaped by the developed nations.
In 2019 -20, as per the Economic Survey, India allocated close to 88 billion USD of public funds for education and subsidizing education.
Where is the benefit of this spent going and Why?
As per the data from the Union Ministry of Home Affairs, from 2016 to 2021, 6 lac Indians gave up their citizenship.
Another study by Morgan Stanley states that till 2021, from 2014 onwards, 23,000 USD millionaires have left India, who could have created more Jobs or more Opportunities in India for Indians.
3. Employment
As the Population grows the government is expected to provide for employment. However, the conundrum is that the Government is not supposed to be in business and should only act as a policymaker and an enabler. If the government will not be in business, then how can the government employ a gigantic quantum of people beyond regular administrative jobs for running and upkeeping the country?
Most Non-Government entities will look for talent and cost-effectiveness for hiring and the thus larger population is a deterrent to it. With tech, AI and robotics picking pace, the human resource absorption in the industry will only reduce in times to come.
4. National security, National threat & Potential loss of Freedom
If the second or third phenomenon occurs then, the colour of the entire population can change sometimes in decades and sometimes in centuries, threatening the existence, survival, and sustenance of the native population that has been living in the country for millennia.
Delving deep into the past again.
California Genocide
In American History, one of the chapters that are conveniently erased from the memory of its citizens is the California genocide that occurred between 1846 and 1873, where ~ 16000+ native Californians were killed and several thousand others were starved or inhumanely worked to death. The conquerors of California were supported by state-sponsored militia in acts of enslavement, kidnapping, rape, child separation, and displacement. The aggressors from outside cleansed the natives, to whom the land belonged.
The decimation & massacre of Hindus from Kashmir
Another example in our history is the state of Jammu and Kashmir, where till about the early 14th century over 90% of the population was Hindu. Through the centuries the population of native Hindus declined.
The 1961 Census, India's first independent census showed that the Muslim population, constituted 68.31% of the state's population while Hindus, made up 28.45%. The balance was other religions.
The last held census in 2011 for the state of Jammu and Kashmir represents a ditto picture where Muslims represent 68.31% of the population and Hindus 28.44%, the rest being other minorities like Buddhists, Sikhs, Christians, and Jains.
Then why is this fuss all about?
In 1961, the population of Hindus in Kashmir Valley stood at ~ 20% but the same was annihilated to barely 3% by 2011 (today it will be even lesser). The population of the state grew but the Hindu population who were the original inhabitants of the state and the valley vanished in half a millennium.
Illegal Infiltration - Unfortunate but true, apart from Bhutan most neighbors of India are in an economically precarious condition ridden by internal conflict, domestic crisis, or in-house chaos. The result of which is ~ 2 Crore illegal migrants are staying in India as per government estimates, all adding crime, lawlessness, and pressure on the scarce resources of the country.
Looking at the above urgent and immediate steps need to be taken through the constitutional framework to protect India from the ills of Population Explosion else every system, every pillar, and every freedom of this vibrant democracy enjoyed by the inhabitants and forthcoming off-springs of such inhabitants stand a chance to collapse.
Thus Siddhartha Rastogi says, "If a country doesn't learn from its past and take curative steps to correct the aberration, it soon ceases to exist."
At what point in time, does a country’s demographic dividend turn into a demographic disaster?
Amid a chaotic world, ever-rising geo-political tensions, and perpetually changing technology, where does India stand with its 1.41 billion nationals?
The backdrop nope, it's reality
Fatima Begum hurriedly with her two sons and two daughters, all visibly below five years of age, entered the Mumbai passport office. Following her, Nusrat Khatoon with her two children also entered the main hall of the passport Office. They seemed to be ten minutes late for the appointment, but the security guard graciously escorted them and the children along with a pile of documents and affidavits straight to the initial verification counter. Due to the Deepawali holidays, the counter was not so crowded, unlike what otherwise one experiences.
Fatima and Nusrat along with their six children waited and then Nusrat started handing over the set of documents one by one to the passport officer. Fatima and Nusrat cladded in Black Burkas from head to toe with their eyes being the only part of the body that the passport officer could see.
He politely asked the whereabouts of the father of the children whose passports were applied for. The prompt answer came from Nusrat as - "Saudi". The passport officer stared at Fatima and her four children with a question mark in his eyes. Nusrat gently nodded and meekly uttered Saudi.
Fatima evidently couldn’t read or write and was given the task of managing the children. Nusrat was handing over the file and documents one by one to the passport officer. The queue behind the ladies and the children was getting longer as the time to scrutinize every document was getting lengthier.
Suddenly a child started to cry and another started rolling on the floor and a third sat down on the floor. Children seemed to be tired, underweight, and undernourished. The lady guard promptly came and assisted the women with the children, but no respite. One woman managing six children seemed to be an impossible task.
The queue behind started getting impatient and started requesting the Passport Officer to hurry up. The passport officer didn’t lose his calm and managed to verify the documents and advised on the documents that were missing.
By the end of it all, the women were angry, the children were exasperated and the people in the queue were furious.
What seems to be a scene or a backdrop of an incident is real. This reality strikes when one applies for school admission, when one applies for admission to a hospital for a bed, for a job, for travel ticket booking, and even when one needs to pursue one's near and dear one's last rights.
Everywhere there is a struggle, chaos, or hustle when one is seeking basic material things, essential for one's meaningful existence.
At the time of India’s Independence, the population of the country stood at ~ 340 million or 34 Crores. The world population then stood at 2.41 billion or 241 Crores. In other words, the country’s population stood at ~ 14.11 % of the global human population.
In 75 years, the country’s population has jumped by over four times, and today India contributes to ~18% of the world population.
This 3.5% jump or ~4% increase in India’s population as a per cent of the global population seems to be a small anomaly if one compares it with the past.
From 1500 onwards, India's population (including that of Pakistan and Bangladesh) was always higher than 20% of the world population.
The below chart shows ~ % of the Indian population since 1500 till about today.
Then why this hue and cry?
The worry comes from aspects that are missing today and all thanks to the systematic subjugation of Indians by Britishers. Some of them have been enunciated below.
1. Complete Self-Reliance
Till the early 19th century, there were ~ seven and a half lac villages in Bharat. Almost all of them were self-sufficient, producing ~ 2000 types of goods like cloth, pots, shoes, weapons, etc. Services such as healthcare (presence of a Vaidya or an ayurvedic doctor), as well as education institutions (Gurukuls), existed in every hamlet.
The only product that was not produced in a village and was brought from outside was salt. Cities thrived on villages as excess produce, post village consumption was sold in cities to national and international traders.
This is not the case in modern Bharat (today's India), where packaged food, soaps, shampoos, and utilities of urban India are penetrating and controlling rural Bharat. The world is getting urbanized and so is India. The reverse of the ancient period is being witnessed - with Cities now supporting the rural economy.
Despite the large population in terms of the overall percentage back then 200 years ago, the Indians were prosperous and well-heeled with all children of the motherland being well taken care of at all points in time.
2. Share in the global marketplace for goods -
Since time immemorial, Bharat was an export-oriented oriented, manufacturing-led, and rural-dominated economy contributing ~ 27% of the total Global GDP till the late 18th century. Goods from Bharat reigned the World having a market share of ~ 30% till the mid-18th Century.
This paramountcy was across products from muslin to cotton, to yarn, to steel, etc. Today the share of Indian goods exported to the rest of the world stands at 2.1% and the contribution of GDP by India to the Global GDP is at a mere 3.28%. Thus Bharat of old times nurtured and encouraged the blooming of various civilizations through its goods and output.
3. Systems and Processes – Tamper-proof Temple Oriented economy
Temples existed in every village and every city in Bharat and they acted as the center of learning, a place of guidance for achieving Moksha (Salvation), and a mode that ensured the movement in the ever-revolving economy.
The wealthy donated generously to the temples, for the temple's upkeep, and towards the temple treasure. During the lean period, these funds were used back for society's well-being. During good times, temple treasures were generously filled by people.
Temples that are thought of as places for prayers and worship were usually developed with a holistic approach, as an arena of cultural activity. Florists, musicians, artists, painters, and sculptors all thrived on account of the temple.
Temple also provided food to the needy as well as brought cohesiveness and a sense of belongingness to every resident of the town or the village acting as an economic guardian and support system. This temple-oriented economy got decimated especially in the last two centuries.
These were some of the many socio-economic systems that secured the sustenance of a vibrant and progressive economy.
This is about the past. What about the present, when many of these ancient valuable systems are being brought down or have been methodically broken down?
Why on one hand there is exuberance from the World community of India being a big market opportunity - Too big to miss at the same time, why common Indian is still getting attracted to freebies politics for its basic sustenance?
Why do a few economists around the globe start murmuring that India is at a critical juncture where the population surge, if not channelized well, or if the population blast goes out of control, can convert demographic dividend into a demographic disaster?
Some of the factors that one is and should be perturbed about are -
1. Poor division or allocation of resources –
India’s birth rate has been declining at a steady pace with current numbers standing at 1.71%. However rural India has seen a higher birth rate as compared to urban India. A refined measure of birthrate is children born to thousand women aged between 15-49 years (generally the childbearing age of a woman). Here one can see that the fertility rate in rural areas is far higher at 73.7 versus a national average of 67 and 53.7 in the urban areas for every thousand women.
The conundrum is that per capita income in rural areas is far lower than the urban areas, which also means the disposable income in the hands of parents to take care of the children is low. Thus the ills of malnutrition, perinatal mortality, or High maternal mortality still infest and are perpetuated with every drought, every natural calamity, and with every disruption notably in the rural context.
2. Brain Drain -
One of the evils of the high population is the subtle brain drain. As resources deteriorate under the pressure of a rising populace, the most talented, the most equipped, and the most skillful leave the country looking for a better opportunity, sometimes for a better & judicious utilization of specialized skills and surely for a better lifestyle and standard of living.
These educated minds and skilled workforce then contribute to the immigrating nations' Growth and GDP for never to come back, with India losing its valuable human resources that could have brought back or added to the prosperity of the worse (or lower) half of the population in Indian socio-economic classification.
One of the studies conducted by The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in conjunction with the World Economic Forum stated that as of 2020, an estimated 120 million migrants are living in OECD countries, with at least 30% of these people highly educated. OECD is an international, intergovernmental economic organization of 38 countries and is perceived to be the group of the most developed nations in the world with the highest per-capita income.
Out of these 120 million migrants, or 12 crores, 30 to 35 per cent, or ~ 4 Crores of these migrants are considered highly educated, which means, they have received vocational or academic training or are well-educated with professional or postgraduate degrees.
As of 2015 - 2016, among the immigrants from India leaving for OECD nations, the share of those considered of high education status was nearly 65 per cent. China had a rate of 48.6 per cent of highly educated migrants in the OECD.
In simpler words when the world has seen one person amongst 3 of high calibre leaving the home country to work and settle in OECD countries, India witnessed an exodus of two well-educated, well-trained, talented persons for every three people leaving the motherland for better personal prospects.
One study showed that nearly 50% of board exams Class 10th and Class 12th Toppers from 1996 to 2015, left India and are employed overseas.
In other words, these Indians are trained and educated in India, and after their foundation is built in India, the benefit of the foundation is being reaped by the developed nations.
In 2019 -20, as per the Economic Survey, India allocated close to 88 billion USD of public funds for education and subsidizing education.
Where is the benefit of this spent going and Why?
As per the data from the Union Ministry of Home Affairs, from 2016 to 2021, 6 lac Indians gave up their citizenship.
Another study by Morgan Stanley states that till 2021, from 2014 onwards, 23,000 USD millionaires have left India, who could have created more Jobs or more Opportunities in India for Indians.
3. Employment
As the Population grows the government is expected to provide for employment. However, the conundrum is that the Government is not supposed to be in business and should only act as a policymaker and an enabler. If the government will not be in business, then how can the government employ a gigantic quantum of people beyond regular administrative jobs for running and upkeeping the country?
Most Non-Government entities will look for talent and cost-effectiveness for hiring and the thus larger population is a deterrent to it. With tech, AI and robotics picking pace, the human resource absorption in the industry will only reduce in times to come.
4. National security, National threat & Potential loss of Freedom
The population may increase on account of the increased birthrate in general across the country or a particular community or sect having more children or illegal immigration, or unauthorized infiltration from neighboring or nearby countries.
Delving deep into the past again.
California Genocide
In American History, one of the chapters that are conveniently erased from the memory of its citizens is the California genocide that occurred between 1846 and 1873, where ~ 16000+ native Californians were killed and several thousand others were starved or inhumanely worked to death. The conquerors of California were supported by state-sponsored militia in acts of enslavement, kidnapping, rape, child separation, and displacement. The aggressors from outside cleansed the natives, to whom the land belonged.
The decimation & massacre of Hindus from Kashmir
Another example in our history is the state of Jammu and Kashmir, where till about the early 14th century over 90% of the population was Hindu. Through the centuries the population of native Hindus declined.
The 1961 Census, India's first independent census showed that the Muslim population, constituted 68.31% of the state's population while Hindus, made up 28.45%. The balance was other religions.
The last held census in 2011 for the state of Jammu and Kashmir represents a ditto picture where Muslims represent 68.31% of the population and Hindus 28.44%, the rest being other minorities like Buddhists, Sikhs, Christians, and Jains.
Then why is this fuss all about?
In 1961, the population of Hindus in Kashmir Valley stood at ~ 20% but the same was annihilated to barely 3% by 2011 (today it will be even lesser). The population of the state grew but the Hindu population who were the original inhabitants of the state and the valley vanished in half a millennium.
Illegal Infiltration - Unfortunate but true, apart from Bhutan most neighbors of India are in an economically precarious condition ridden by internal conflict, domestic crisis, or in-house chaos. The result of which is ~ 2 Crore illegal migrants are staying in India as per government estimates, all adding crime, lawlessness, and pressure on the scarce resources of the country.
Looking at the above urgent and immediate steps need to be taken through the constitutional framework to protect India from the ills of Population Explosion else every system, every pillar, and every freedom of this vibrant democracy enjoyed by the inhabitants and forthcoming off-springs of such inhabitants stand a chance to collapse.
Thus Siddhartha Rastogi says, "If a country doesn't learn from its past and take curative steps to correct the aberration, it soon ceases to exist."
Siddhartha Rastogi
Siddhartha Rastogi is Managing Director & Chief Operating Officer of a Leading Full Service Investment Bank. Views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official view or position of any company or sister concerns or group company where the author is presently employed.