Overview of Afghan Imbroglio
Saigon fell on 30th April, 1975. North Vietnam Troops swept in to claim the spoils. In days before, more than 7,000 Americans and South Vietnamese people were evacuated by helicopters from various areas of Saigon. Media pictures of 15/16 August, 2021 depicting mad scramble to escape Kabul can only remind us of iconic photograph of a Huey Helicopter landing on roof of a CIA safe house as people lined up hoping to getaway. And it will continue.
I have sympathy for young Afghans clinging to a military plane as it taxied and prepared to take off. Almost bloodless seizure of Kabul by Taliban came after a lightning 11 day offensive on cities across Afghanistan. They had already seized most of rural Afghanistan along with key border crossings in a campaign that began in May, 2021 and in August, they moved in force on urban areas nationwide, splintering and demoralizing Afghan forces.
A Taliban run Afghanistan is not a place most of us would choose to live. There will be reprisals for those who collaborated with America/NATO. Most Afghans prefer a secular state and would simply like to be left alone.
Taliban took control of Afghanistan on 15 August, 2021 after a military romp through the country that led them into Kabul in just four months. Those in power disappeared overnight, giving the insurgency a clear run. Reason of rapid advance of Taliban across Afghanistan over the course of the past decade is in utter failure of the US/NATO backed governments of Hamid Karzai in 2001-2014 and Ashraf Ghani in 2014-2021 to improve situation for Afghans.
As a result; Afghan populous believed that corruption levels were lower in Taliban areas; they would run Government more effectively and would look after their welfare. Taliban was able to portray themselves as more efficient and less corrupt administrators.
Taliban victory followed decision of American President Joe Biden to adhere to a deal brokered by his predecessor, Donald Trump, that committed the United States to withdrawing all troops by 01 May, 2021. Biden extended the deadline to 31 August 21. American intervention in Afghanistan has come to an end after almost 20 years.
Afghan War has cost over two trillion dollars and claimed 240,000 lives. This is the measurable cost. But no one can calculate how American involvement in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria has destabilized the region or calculate hidden cost of this bloody war.
American policy in Afghanistan in 2001 was to strike hard and fast to punish and cripple Al Qaeda and their hosts which were achieved quickly. But she failed to establish democracy in Afghanistan because she could not understand how Islam as religion was a serious issue for Afghans who would kill Infidels violating their religious convictions in spite of offers of cash, technology, and infrastructure.
Afghans, from ancient times, nurture deep seated desire to rule themselves without outside interference. Since Americans could not comprehend this, they wasted billions of dollars in a country that, in geopolitical terms, did not matter bit to their interests. Pulling out of Afghanistan is the smartest thing President Joe Biden has done but he should not let Military Industrial complex of that country to change his mind.
The blast was followed by a firefight on the ground prompted by Islamic State Jihadist. Islamic State (Khorasan) has claimed responsibility for this attack. This highlighted precarious security situation at the Kabul Airport, an escape of last resort for hundreds of American/ Foreign citizens still left in Afghanistan along with thousands of Afghans who now face reprisals from the Taliban for supporting American/NATO war efforts.
More than one and half lakh people had been evacuated from Afghanistan in one of the largest airlifts in history. But evacuations continued despite the attack threats from Islamic State (Khorasan) and Haqqani Network. Though Taliban leader Haibatullah Akhundzada pretend to have had a change of heart as they assume national power, they are not going to cut ties with Haqqanis and other Terror Groups.
Haqqanis under Sirajuddin Haqqani have carried out many lethal attacks against American/ NATO Forces in last two decades including a 19-hour siege of the U.S. Embassy. Haqqanis are Transnational Mafia trading in ransom industry, real estate, telephones, car dealerships, mineral smuggling and narcotics. They have wide experience in running security apparatus as well parallel underground Police/Military Units.
Haqqanis have very close relationship with Al Qaeda. Both groups relate to radical Disband Religious Ideology. Haqqani Network founder, Jalaluddin Haqqani, had a personal friendship with al Qaeda co-founder Osama bin Laden. Haqqani Network is responsible for establishing and maintaining working relations between Taliban and Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda played an active role helping the Haqqanis to come to Afghanistan.
Haqqanis are also linked to Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, anti Indian Jaish e Mohammed and Islamic State (Khorasan).Taliban has placed Kabul under Khalil Haqqani of Haqqani Network. Nothing happens in Kabul without the Haqqanis knowledge. Khalil has full support of Habibur Rahaman Agha, an influential leader in Taliban hierarchy.
The explosions ripped through the airport perimeter that was under their watch. Khalil Haqqqani assigned Haqqani Special Unit, Badri 313, to patrol outside Airport but Islamic State (Khorasan) Jihadist detonated their suicide bombs. Haqqanis are pioneers in suicide bombing in Afghanitan.Taliban have lost 28 members in this attack, more than America did.
Islamic State (Khorasan) is a sworn enemy of the Taliban who refuse to honor Taliban’s agreement with America/NATO, which explicitly states that Taliban in power won’t allow Anti US Terrorist Groups to operate from/on Afghan soil. Haqqanis have very close/cozy relations with Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence Agency.
As on date, Sirajuddin Haqqani is the strongest leader in the Taliban Conclave, surpassing Taliban Top man Haibatullah Akhundzada. As per Taliban Supremo, they have conquered territory, and now they must govern, be just, have a Sharia Code, and meet the needs of the people. Even as part of Taliban Conclave, Haqqanis will definitely keep its alliance with al Qaeda intact. Their Badri 313 is reincarnation of Al Qaeda Brigade 313 who under Ilyas Kashmiri, carried out several anti American and anti-Indian attacks.
Taliban takeover of Afghanistan has significant ramifications for South Asia, especially India. Countries across may soon see rush of refugees at their borders. Afghanistan will emerge as “Regional Terrorist Haven”. During their first tenure in power in 1980/90s, Taliban actively assisted terrorists targeting Indian citizens/interests.
In 1999, then Taliban Government allowed hijackers of Indian Airlines flight from Kathmandu, Nepal, to escape with impunity. To ensure the safety of the passengers, India caved to demands to release a jailed Pakistani Terrorist, Masood Azhar. After his transfer to Afghanistan, Taliban permitted Azhar to travel to Pakistan, where he founded Jaish e Mohammad, the organization responsible for a spate of some deadly high profile attacks across India.
During recent crises, in spite of India being fifth largest and most effective aid donor to Afghanistan, America kept India at arm’s length from most political negotiations over Afghanistan, owing to Pakistan’s strenuous objections. During the talks held in 2020/21 between China, Pakistan, Russia, and America, India remained noticeably absent.
Having been kept out of these forums, India now finds most of its critical investments in Human and Physical Infrastructure in Afghanistan in total jeopardy as Taliban takes control. In last two decades, India had provided scholarships to Afghan students, offered food assistance and helped restore war ravaged Afghan power grid. American/NATO withdrawal leaves Indian Foreign Policy and Security Interests at considerable risk on two fronts.
Firstly, new Taliban Government is likely to/will foster Safe Havens for anti Indian Terrorist Organizations like Jaish e Mohammed and Lashkar e Taiba to regroup, train, and then wreak havoc in Indian-administered Kashmir, site of a long running insurgency, with Islamic State (Khorasan) thrown in to support them.
Availability of terrorist safe havens may significantly complicate Indian counter insurgency operations in Kashmir. Emergence of new sanctuaries will/could embolden indigenous small Jihadist Terrorist Groups currently operating in Kashmir and remaining India. With connivance of Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence Agency, these groups may also gain access to safe havens in Afghanistan. Such staging grounds could lead to increased violence in Kashmir.
Secondly, Chinese willingness to work with Taliban could expand her footprint in this region. China has compelling reasons to work with Taliban regime. Apparent Chinese willingness to work with Taliban will/could significantly add to woes of Indian Security Planners. China has already hosted Taliban leadership in Beijing, and there is evidence that it is already finding ways to work with the Taliban.
China has strategic interests in Taliban/Afghanistan a) China and Russia are concerned about vulnerability of the contiguous Muslim dominated zone to include Central Asian Republics having 72 million Muslims and Xinjiang having 22 million Muslims.
They do not want Taliban to undertake anything to compromise the stability and security of their vulnerable areas; b) China wants to ensure that Taliban do not offer safe havens or even propaganda support to Muslim Uyghur population in Xinjiang, currently facing repression from Beijing; c) China wants to extend Strategic and Economic connects of its Belt and Road Initiative in area now known as the “Zone of New Great Game”; d) Availability of un quantified minerals and rare earths including its vast Copper deposits, is major temptation for China and will be great source of income and wealth from her for Taliban; e) Taliban will deny any Strategic presence to America in Afghanistan and China is determined to grab this opportunity/advantage; f) China will provide financial assistance of required 10 Billion Dollars to Taliban/Afghanistan until alternate arrangements are made through international funding and g) China was in process of constructing a passage to link Afghanistan with Pakistan through Wakhan Corridor which she will like to continue under present regime.
Afghanistan is in dire financial crises/state. De Afghan Bank which is central bank of Afghanistan has had total reserves of Nine Billion Dollars as in third week of August, 2021 which was lodged in Federal Reserve Bank in America.
The US Treasury Department froze these assets on 16 August 21 to prevent transfer into Taliban control. International Monetary Fund has withheld transfer of 370 Million Dollars to Afghanistan. Simultaneously, commercial banks world over and Western Union have also suspended money transfers to Afghanistan. Resultantly, Financial Bridges to tide the country over during the 20 years of war and devastation existing in Afghanistan have collapsed and Afghan currency, Afghani, is in a state of free fall.
Without access to any Western Economic Assistance, Taliban will be urgently seeking foreign investment to meet dire financial needs. And who is better than China to fulfill her economic needs. China remains intractably hostile toward India and is closely allied with its adversary Pakistan. With its deep pockets, China will actively work to limit any Indian influence in a Taliban run Afghanistan.
Taliban’s own reservations about India will only help facilitate Beijing’s ability to keep New Delhi at bay. Even as Washington and New Delhi forge closer security ties to counter China’s growing power, American decision to withdraw from Afghanistan has ultimately left India with a range of new security concerns.
Taliban Conclave Ruling Council consists of Mulla Abdul Ghani Baradar, cofounder and Mulla Mohammad Yakub, strategist of Taliban and Khalil Haqqani of Haqqani Network. As on date, Government will have both Pro and Anti Taliban Factions. Baradar and Yaqoob would have liked to include Ahmad Massoud, son of the anti Taliban commander Ahmad Shah Massoud, Amir of Panjshir Valley, in Ruling Council. But that seems unlikely.
Formation of new Government is being coordinated by former President Hamid Karzai, former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah and former War Lord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. New Government may/will not have Amir or President as Head of State to avoid factional struggles amongst various Tribal Heads. Main source of income for Taliban run Government will be from production and trafficking Heroin and Methamphetamine, as well as smuggling mining assets of Marble, Lithium, and Gemstones as hethertofore.
On entering Kabul 15 August, 21; the Taliban has claimed that they will not seek retribution against supporters of the previous Government or against advocates of Constitutionally Guaranteed Rights, including Equality for Women, Freedom of Speech, and Respect for Human Rights. This is because they seek International Acceptance. But contrary to these claims, Taliban Gunmen are going door to door searching for people by name.
In Herat, Ghazni, Faryab, and Balkh Provinces; citizens who had joined Anti-Taliban Militias are being targeted and being shot. They have executed Informers and paraded dead bodies hanged underneath a Helicopter, closed Media outlets and are intimidating Journalists, Jailing Women’s Rights Advocates. Taliban efforts to consolidate control are affected by factional divides in Afghanistan.
Old, Pashtun dominated Taliban have given way to a newer generation with Uzbek and Tajik Insurgent Leaders. But; a group in Taliban will likely oppose Northern warlords including Uzbek leader General Abdul Rashid Dostum and War Lord Atta Mohammad Noor.
On other hand; subjugation of Kabul by Haqqani Network has angered Kandahar Faction under Mulla Baradar. On other side; Mulla Ahemad Massoud has formed a resistance movement 100 miles North East of Kabul in Panjeshir Valley. This province remained out of Taliban control in their 1996-2001 Regime. Sporadic fighting has also been reported from mountainous areas of Baghlan, Takhar, and Kapisa provinces.
Fighting over the weekend around the Panjeshir Valley is an indication that the resistance had at least pockets of support across the country. With due foreign help/intervention, all this will/could spread into a full blown Civil War.
Russian, Chinese, Iranian, Turkish and Pakistani Embassies are presently operating in Kabul. They are expected to give recognition to new Taliban Government in very near future. Despite near complete control of Afghanistan by Taliban; International Community should wait for minimum of three months before offering Diplomatic Recognition to their regime. Intentions of Taliban and her conclave to form a Republic, shun Terrorist Organizations, hold elections and maintain human rights, women’s rights, and freedom of speech must be ascertained before such step is taken. But in all probabilities, Taliban is unlikely to agree to most of these demands, as “they don’t know what democracy is and they know they will never win an election”.
Current situation in Afghanistan is too tenuous at present to get any clear cut answers. What we should be getting to look at is the trends and what we make of them. India, therefore, must not be in a hurry/haste to offer recognition to Taliban Government. Any talks like what happened in Doha on 30/31 August are welcome.
Not offering diplomatic recognition does not preclude us from holding parleys with Taliban leadership to get assurance on Jihadist activities from across the border as well safeguard of our interests in Afghanistan. There is an obvious need to establish open and direct contacts with Taliban to explore her approaches towards India. This will allow India to convey its red lines. As per Arya Chanakya, in diplomacy, all avenues open must be examined, tried and only most suitable must be followed. Media which created ruckus on Doha talks must understand the difference.
In three months from April to June 2021,America gave 6x A-29 light attack aircraft, 174x High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (Humvees), 10,000 x 2.75 inch High Explosive Rockets, 61,000x 40-mm High Explosive Rounds, 9,00,000 rounds of .50 caliber ammo, and 20,15,600 rounds of 7.62 mm bullets to Afghan Army. Afghan Air Force had 221 Aircrafts including 45xUH-60 Blackhawks, 50xMD-530s, and 56x Mi-17 Helicopters besides 23x A-29 Super Tucano Fighters, 6 xC-130 Hercules Transport Aircraft, 12x C-208 Utility Aircraft, and 16 xAC-208 fixed-wing Aircraft.
On 06 June 2021 America handed over New Antonik, Camp Morehead, New Kabul Complex, Blockhouse, Camp Stevenson, Camp Dwyer, Camp Lincoln, Camp Arena, Kandahar and Bagram Airfields and Resolute Support Headquarters amounting to 11 Bases and Military Complexes to three and half lakh Afghan Army/Air Force. But instead of putting up a spirited fight this Force capitulated meekly on 15 August 21 and gifted these Bases, Aircrafts, Armored Vehicles and Ammunition to Taliban on platter. However, before leaving Afghanistan on night 30/31 August, Central Command Chief, General Kenneth McKenzie said that they have demilitarized 70% of Military Equipment.
America always had blind faith in Pakistan and claims of her Army to fight Terrorists of “all color and hue”. In fact Pakistan has been providing safe sanctuaries to Taliban and Haqqani network for over two decades, which has led to the current crisis in Afghanistan. Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan along with Al Qaeda and support of Pakistan Inter Service Intelligence Agency has formed Islamic State (Khosaran).
As per intelligence in hand; a) Some Taliban Leaders have accused Islamic State (Khosaran) to have paid huge cash to Haqqani Network for its overall support to establish itself in Afghanistan including active help in organizing four Terrorist Attacks on Kabul Airport in second half of August,21; b) In May, 2017, Islamic State (Khosaran) has appointed Aslam Faruqi as its Governor because he being an appeaser of Pakistan, obtained guaranteed safe haven for them in Pakistan; c) Her relationship with Pakistani authorities has allowed Islamic State (Khosaran) to become more resilient; d) Since May 2017, Islamic State (Khosaran) has carried out few attacks in Pakistan only against Non State Targets.
In reply, Pakistan Army/ISI/Police took nominal superficial punitive actions against them. This clearly indicates that either both sides constantly are trying to renegotiate the terms of their agreement or that its implementation is a matter of dispute; e) Islamic State (Khosaran), when became vulnerable to American Air Strikes, was allowed to move its Main Base from Afghan Territory to the Tirah Valley in Tribal dominated FATA area of Pakistan.
Pak Army/ISI permitted Islamic State (Khosaran) to maintain her Training Camps in different locations throughout FATA and f) Understanding between Pakistan and Islamic State (Khosaran) points toward the fact that contrary to claims of ISI/Pak Army, Islamic State (Khosaran) is factually active only in Afghanistan and NOT in Pakistan.
Taliban is a divided house, non monolith, with lots of ethnic and tribal loyalties owing allegiance to cliques and sectarian trends. The relations that these separate entities may enjoy with different powers would come in the way of unification of Afghanistan. Apparently, nobody knows which path Taliban will follow.
Everybody is groping in dark including Pakistan. A nation which will probably emerge extremely influential is Iran followed by Qatar. Iran has its strategic linkages with both Russia and China and has its interests deeply embedded in the safety and security of the Shia minorities in Afghanistan.
Tajikistan in the North too is an important nation. India must enhance its links with these nations and adopt “Wait and Watch Policy” till situation crystallizes. Strategic Patience is the need of the Hour. This is real litmus test of perception, diplomacy and political acumen of Indian Rulers and Administration.