Pakistan won't favor Taliban, to balance relations with US and China, says geo-political analyst Salman Rafi Sheikh
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Islamabad, May 19: In a strategic shift, Pakistan no longer favors a Taliban total victory in Afghanistan as it seeks to balance its US and China relations. Salman Rafi Sheikh, writing in Asia Times said that Pakistan's security establishment appears to see more geopolitical upside to an inclusive rather than Taliban-dominated Afghan govt in Kabul when US troops fully withdraw by Sep 11.
This marks a distinct flip of Pakistan's previous position in favor of a Taliban total win over Kabul, one that violently ousts Afghan President Ashraf Ghani's govt and establishes a new Islamic emirate to the exclusion of non-Taliban and non-Pashtun groups. Pakistan's security establishment believes that a total Taliban victory would galvanize Pakistan-based, Taliban-aligned groups to pursue similar objectives through military means, potentially leading to new instability including in traditional hotbed areas along the Afghan border. Like the Taliban, Pakistan authorities are known to view dimly Ghani's elected govt, both as a US-backed puppet regime and one that is dangerously close to Pak rival India, reports Asia Times.
Islamabad's shift became apparent a fortnight ago when the security establishment renewed its efforts to push the Taliban to rejoin peace talks with Ghani's govt. ANI reports that iInformed sources say the Taliban was told in clear terms that not doing so could invite "tough action" from Pakistan. In a meeting between Pakistan's top security officials and Afghan Taliban representatives on April 28 in Istanbul, the latter was reportedly given an "enough is enough" message, with Pakistan emphasizing that the Taliban's seizure of power through the sheer use of force and violence would not be viable, said Sheikh. The meeting and its messaging were reported widely in Pakistani media and subsequently not denied by either side.
On May 10, Pakistan army chief Gen Bajwa travelled to Kabul where he met Ghani and assured him of Pakistan's support for an inclusive political system in Afghanistan after the US withdraws the last of its troops in September. This was followed by Ghani's unusual public statement on May 12, claiming that Pakistan is no longer in favor of helping to re-establish a Taliban-led Islamic emirate, as existed under its hard-line rule between 1996 and 2001. "Pakistan's army, in utter clarity, announced that the revival of Islamic emirate is not in Pakistan's national interest," Ghani said in a televised speech. "While Ghani's remarks have not been refuted by Islamabad or Pakistan's top brass, it is not yet official, publicly announced policy. But Pakistan clearly has its own compelling reasons to shift its previous course vis-a-vis the Taliban and Ghani", reiterated Sheikh.