Reality Check of Military Pullout In Ladakh

In a major breakthrough to resolve nine month long Military Standoff along LAC (Line of Actual Control) in Ladakh; Senior Colonel Wu Qian, Spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of National Defense, had issued a written statement on Wednesday,10 February,2021 that “Today, Chinese and Indian Troops on South and North Banks of Pangong Tso have started their with drawl as per a “Synchronized and Organized Disengagement Procedure” as a result of consensus reached in Ninth round of China India Corps Commander Level Meeting held on 24 January, 21”.

It is noteworthy that the disengagement started on a day when Mr Sun Weidong, Chinese Ambassador to India, stated in an article that “Both countries should meet each other half way in addressing problems while putting the boundary issue in an appropriate place in their bilateral ties”. Though there was no statement from Army Headquarters regarding this issue, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh made a statement in the Rajya Sabha about “Present Situation in Eastern Ladakh” on Thursday,11^th February, 2021. Army Headquarters however issued rejoinder in a Press Conference after couple of days.

According to the statement made by Rajnath Singh in Rajya Sabha; (a) Troops from both sides have started disengaging from the Pangong Tso area in Eastern Ladakh on 10 February; (b) Disengagement process is restricted to North and South Banks of Pangong Tso; (c) Process has started with pulling back of certain columns of Tanks from the South bank region by both sides; (d) At the moment, there is no pullback of troops from other Friction Points; (e) Ground Commanders have met on 09 February to figure out nuts and bolts of the process; (f) Both sides will remove forward deployment in a phased, coordinated and verified manner; (g) China will pull out its Troops on North Bank to East of Finger Eight; h) India will position its Troops at its permanent base near Finger Three; (i) Similar action will be taken by both in South Bank Area also; (j) As of now, area between Finger Three and Finger Eight will become a “Temporary No Patrolling Zone” till both sides reach an agreement through Military and Diplomatic discussions to restore Patrolling; (k) All construction done by both sides on North and South Banks of Lake since April 2020 will be removed; (l) Based on this agreement, action has already started from Wednesday, 10 February; (m) This will send Troops back to their traditional bases on North bank in Indian Traditional Base at Dhan Singh Thapa Post located to West of Finger Three and Chinese Base East of Finger Eight; (n) In all Military and Diplomatic discussions with China since last year, we have insisted that solution to the issue must be resolved on the basis of three principles; LAC should be accepted and respected by both, Neither should attempt to change the status quo unilaterally and All agreements should be fully adhered to by both; (o) Within 48 hours of complete disengagement from Pangong Lake, Senior Commanders level talks will be held and the remaining issues resolved; (p) I expect that this will restore the situation prevalent as on 01 April,2020.

North and South Banks of Pangong Tso are two of the most significant and sensitive regions in current standoff that began in May 2020. Severe Physical Clashes here marked the beginning of the standoff when Chinese Troops intruded deep to the West of LAC and positioned its Troops on the ridge line connecting Fingers Three and Four.

As per Indian Perception, LAC passes through Finger Eight. On night of 29/30 August, 2020, Indian Army gained Strategic Advantage by swiftly occupying vacant High Peaks at Magar Hill, Mukhpari, Gurung Hill, Rezang La and Rechin La on South Bank of the lake. China is particularly sensitive to this development as India can dominate Spanggur Gap from these positions. This is two kilometer wide valley that can be used to launch an offensive as China had done during her attack in 1962.

These positions also allow India a direct view of China’s Moldo Garrison. Both these aspects would stall any Chinese intentions of repeat of 1962, this time. Obviously and naturally, China was shocked and flabbergasted by sudden and bold occupation of these strategic heights by Indian Army. After this unexpected action, India readjusted/ repositioned its Troops on North Bank too, to occupy heights overlooking Chinese positions there, Warning gun shots had been fired more than once during this audacious jostling. As of now, Troops from both sides are sitting just a few hundred meters apart from each other at many of these heights, making region a tinderbox.

Since June,2020, during eight Army level and two Minister level meetings, China has insisted that India must first pull its Troops back from South Bank of Pangong Tso and Chushul Subsector. But India had counter insisted that disengagement process must cover entire region and Troops should go back to their April 2020 positions.

It seems that in ninth meeting, for now, both sides have agreed to first disengage from the Pangong Tso area only. Pangong Tso region is just one of the friction areas. There are other friction points, all to North of the Pangong Tso, where Troops have been face to face/eye ball to eye ball ditance since last year.

Chinese troops had crossed LAC in four other parts last year. First was in Gogra Post at Patrolling Point 17A (PP17A) and second in Hot Springs area near PP15, both of which are close to each other. The third was PP14 in Galwan Valley, which became the site of the major altercation between Indian and Chinese Troops on 15 June,2020 in which 20 Indian Soldiers were martyred and 48 Chinese Troops killed.

Fourth, one of the most sensitive areas, that was/is not mentioned either by Defence Minister in Rajya Sabha or by China in new Disengagement Process is Depsang Plains, which is close to India’s strategic Daulat Beg Oldie Air/Army Base, 36 kilometer South East of Karakoram Pass. China, who occupied Bottleneck/Y Junction, has now blocked Indian Troops from moving East to their Patrolling Limits.

Bottleneck is around 18 kilometer West of LAC, and lies just 30 km South East of Daulat Beg Oldie. Indian Troops are unable to reach even their traditional Patrolling Limits at PP10, PP11, PP11A, PP12 and PP13.

Two of the main stumbling blocks in finding a permanent resolution tto Sino Indian Border Dispute are Lack of Trust and Unclear Intent. Any permanent resolution will include first, Disengagement of Troops from the frontlines from all friction points, then De escalation that will entail sending the Troops from the depth areas to their Original Bases.

Both sides have around 50,000 troops each in the region, along with additional Tanks, Artillery and Air Defence Assets. As standoff progressed in the months of May, June and July, there was a Mirrored Military Buildup on/from both sides. Future resolution has to include sending these Troops and Military Equipment where they came from on both sides. On other hand, though Disengagement is a positive step, one has to wait for details of the process, whether it includes all Military Presence or only Heavy Equipment and aspects such as Future Patrolling Pattern in vacated areas.

It must form part of a Comprehensive Agreement covering all areas in Ladakh, Tenth round of Military Talks is expected to be held soon. Aspects related to disengagement will be discussed during this dialogue. Verification will be a critical aspect of the Disengagement Process, which is likely to take place Sector wise and in Phases.

One thing is clear that India has to be extremely cautious during Disengagement Process. China is master of creating optical illusions through decoy movements. It is withdrawing in Ladakh but building new villages dot on LAC elsewhere. Who knows, China may house Retired Soldiers in those villages which will probably act as Logistic Hubs and minimize Troop Buildup signatures for future operations. Therefore, it is essential that China withdraws to a distance giving sufficient depth to us from where swift build up to occupy Strategic Heights to surprise us is not possible.

That leads to search of reasons as to “Why China agreed to mutual Disengagement after keeping India on tender hooks for over nine months?” The options are; (a) Having met her objectives of demolishing/puncturing soaring Indian Strategic Confidence, it is willing to disengage; (b) India, by becoming a part of Western Military Equations and Alliances is upsetting Strategic Balance in Asia, till now in favor of China; (c) Indian actions of August 2019 in Jammu and Kashmir has irked China who felt that Limited Military Coercion in Kashmir is necessary to force India back to the Starting Line. This is because, Border Conflict or even General War required major redeployment of Troops by China jeopardizing its objectives in South China Sea/Taiwan/ Honkong/Japan; (d) Continuing Standoff was only indicative of Projection of Threat of a Two Front War for India, impossible/not feasible due to precarious internal Economic, Political and Social Health of her all weather friend, Pakistan; (e) China drew favorably by agreeing to disengage in ongoing Covid-19 Pandemic, thus successfully projecting a Sense of reason and Political maturity in World Forum,

Modi Government has invested in New Strategy of trusting Army Leadership to undertake Border Negotiations which, till now, was exclusive domain of Politicians, Diplomats and Defence Ministry. In given task, Army stood its ground well, reflecting an Intellectual and Pragmatic Approach. It ran the risk of coming up against obstacles in implementation, as was evident when it tried to implement what was agreed upon in Theatre Level Border Meetings of June 2020.

In future, China will vividly remember that Indian Army always minutely verify, make sure and satisfy itself while Implementing an Agreement; just like its Officers and Soldiers did in June 2020, which led to Galwan Clash. Ongoing action after recent talks is NOT a Final Agreement. It relates only to North and South Banks of Pangong Tso. While the actions in North Pangong Tso have been spelt out more specifically, the same is absent in relation to South. The details of this will need to be probably thrashed out when the stage for the pullback of forward deployed Infantry comes up. Limits have been put on patrolling North of the lake to avoid physical contact between the troops of both sides. The theatre-level Military Diplomatic talks will at some stage have to come down to border meetings at lower levels of Battalion/Brigade, to restore trust and confidence.

At the end of this whole session, India must ask/insist on Physical Delineation of the LAC which is the bane of LAC Management. Perceptions about where ours or the Chinese claim line is, must be mutually sorted out as it is our Terminal Objective. It is easier said than done but must be done because its continuance provides a Definitive Pressure Point to China. Defence Minister has informed Rajya Sabha that, “This House should also know that there are still some outstanding issues with regard to Deployment and Patrolling at some other points along the LAC in Eastern Ladakh. These will be the focus of further discussions with the Chinese”.

The reference was to other areas under dispute, especially Depsang and the Peaks India occupied on night of 29/30 August,20. Occupation of Despang gives us an opportunity to threaten the Main Chinese Highway from Lhasa to Xinjiang. Therefore, much greater threat exists to our defences there. Without an Operational and Tactical Advantage, if these areas are vacated, it is difficult to foresee any further concessions by China.

Progress on current agreement and subsequent moves is not contingent only on events in Eastern Ladakh. Everything is linked to Geopolitical Issues relating to Chinese and Indian Strategic and Economical Interests elsewhere in South Asia. Due to weird Chinese Perception of Indian Role in Indo Pacific Region; we will be under cyclic pressure from China regarding our Strategic Equations with the Quad Nations and United States of America.

It must be remembered that our interests clearly lie where we have “Established Greater Trust and Identified Commonality of Interests”. India just cannot submit to unreasonable Chinese demands. Therefore, Indian approach towards emerging situation should be to waste little time in enhancing its Conventional Military Capability through the Self Reliance Route to modernization of its Defence Forces.

As far as its Northern Border, Disengagements and De-escalation will always be a Temporary Phenomenon as far as China and Pakistan are concerned. Retaining a Positive Stance, India must wield a big stick in form of Strong Army; as big as or bigger than all its Adversaries.