BJP set to retain its seat share in first phase: Interactive map shows the real picture

A projection of 2014 vote share but distributed according to 2019 alliances shows that in spite of losses in Andhra and Telangana, BJP seems to retain its seat share of 32 in the first phase of voting while TDP seems to suffer the biggest reversal due to break up of alliance with BJP.

(This is an interactive map. Click on the year or the constituency to see the details)

The interactive map projects the 2014 Vote share according to 2019 alliances. According to that the BJP will lose the Secunderabad from Telangana and Visakhapatnam, Narsapuram seats from Andhra Pradesh and Bagpat and Bijnor in UP but will retain its seats everywhere in spite of changing alliances. However, the gains of BJP are likely to come from Tripura, Manipur and two seats of W Bengal. In Tripura, the BJP has dislodged the left front from power in assembly elections. In Manipur also now BJP rules the State and expects to win the Outer Manipur seat.

In Alipurduar constituency of W Bengal, the BJP’s vote percentage in 2014 was 27.41% and the winner was Trinamul Congress with 29.58 % Votes. Considering this narrow margin and the support BJP is getting recently in W Bengal, it will not be a surprise if BJP wins this seat. BJP is also trying hard to win Cooch Behar seat. Both these seats are in the border districts of Bangladesh and the resentment against the appeasement policies of TMC was quite visible in the campaign. Perhaps that is why the BJP has fielded former Trinamool youth leader Nisith Pramanik from Cooch Behar while the Trinamool has resorted to rope in former Forward Bloc leader Paresh Adhikary.

Expecting to win both seats of Arunachal Pradesh and one seat of Meghalaya, BJP sets an eye on retaining or even increasing its 2014 seat share of 32 out of 91 seats that went to poll on 11 April 2019.

The real gainer of the break of BJP TDP alliance seems to be YSR Congress if it is able to retain its Vote share of 2014.