#UNEA4: UN reports says 3-5°C temperature rise is now “locked in” for the Arctic

United Nations, Mar 15: The Arctic is home to just over four million people, of which about 10 % are indigenous, but the climate change is severely affecting the ecosystem of Arctic. The UNEA 4 presented the latest report on the Arctic. Even if the world were to cut emissions in line with the Paris Agreement, winter temperatures in the Arctic would rise 3-5°C by 2050 and 5-9°C by 2080, devastating the region and unleashing sea level rises worldwide, finds a new report by UN Environment.

 

Meanwhile, rapidly thawing permafrost could even accelerate climate change further and derail efforts to meet the Paris Agreement’s long-term goal of limiting the rise in global temperature to 2°C, warned ‘Global Linkages - A graphics look’ at the changing Arctic.

“What happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic,” said Joyce Msuya, UN Environment’s Acting Executive Director. “We have the science; now more urgent climate action is needed to steer away from tipping points that could be even worse for our planet than we first thought.”

This study stated that even if global emissions were to halt overnight, winter temperatures in the Arctic would still increase 4 to 5°C by 2100 compared to the late 20th century. This increase is locked into the climate system by greenhouse gases already emitted and ocean heat storage.

the report notes, Arctic societies now must respond to climate change through suitable adaptation actions. Arctic Indigenous Peoples already face increased food insecurity. By 2050, four million people, and around 70% of today’s Arctic infrastructure will be threatened by thawing permafrost.

The Finnish Minister of Environment, Kimmo Tiilikainen said, “The urgency to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement is clearly manifested in the Arctic, because it is one of the most vulnerable and rapidly changing regions in the world, We need to make substantial near-term cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, black carbon and other so-called short-lived climate pollutants all over the world.”

Further, the report said, Even if the Paris Agreement is met, Arctic permafrost is expected to shrink 45% compared to today. Globally, these frozen soils hold an estimated 1,672 billion metric tonnes of carbon. Increased thawing is expected to contribute significantly to carbon dioxide and methane emissions. The resulting warming will, in turn, lead to more thawing – an effect known as ‘positive feedback’. This accelerated climate change could even throw the Paris Agreement’s 2°C goal off track, the report underlines.

Ocean acidification is disproportionately impacting Arctic marine species. This is because cold water can hold more dissolved CO2 while melting ice spreads the acidity further. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the world’s ocean has become 30% more acidic. The more acidic the water, the more energy Arctic corals, mollusks, sea urchins and plankton must use to build their shells and skeletons.

On a positive note, the number of regulated chemicals in humans and animals living in the Arctic was found to be decreasing. These include some Persistent Organic Pollutants regulated under UN Environment’s Stockholm Convention. However, the decrease could be due to changing diets.