The Epic Gujarat Battle: There is a message for everyone

Perception is a strange thing. The BJP, which was an underdog and untouchable in Indian politics just 2 decades ago, is now perceived to be so strong that fewer seats than the previous election are considered as a disaster. The Congress, which ruled India for almost 50 years, is perceived to be such a weakling that a gain of few seats in defeat is considered a remarkable performance. Rahul Gandhi, who is in politics for two decades and destined to be the president of the Congress, is considered as weird a politician that if he campaigns in one election seriously, it is considered an achievement!

That he certainly achieved in Gujarat, making an initially complacent BJP go for a whirlwind campaign. The tactical use of cast politics of Hardik –Jignesh – Alpesh and Co. by the Congress, the anti-incumbency factor, the transient phase of the trouble which a section of society faced in the process of big reform of GST, all these points mounted up to create a challenge for the BJP. A section of media eager to defend the fiefdom of Gandhi family went into overdrive to paint the end of BJP rule in Gujarat.

In such a scenario, a dispassionate analysis of facts becomes scarce. But the same analysis shows that the Indian democracy has now matured enough so that people are able to give a distinct message to each contestant party and candidate.

GUJARAT ELECTION: A FACTSHEET

Vote Share

The trend over past few years is rather consistent with BJP retaining 48 -49 % votes, which is a dream figure for any party in an essentially multi-party democracy. Congress retains 38-39% votes which showed an increase of about 2% this year, crossing the 40% mark first time after 1990. BJP can have solace in having retained its supporter base while Congress can boost of increase in percentage.

Seat Share

As compared to vote share, the figure of the number of seats won seems to have favoured Congress. While the Congress increased its vote share by 2%, the seats have increased from 61 in 2012 to 77, a substantial gain of 16 seats or 26% more than 2012.

SC & ST SEATS

There seems to be a significant loss to BJP in SC and ST segments. In 2012 BJP has won 10 out of 13 seats reserved for SC candidates. In 2017 it won only 7 of them, losing three to Congress. Of the 28 seats reserved for ST candidates, BJP won 16 in 2012. The tally reduced to 10 seats in 2017. While this loss of 9 seats is itself significant in the final tally, it is more significant because if this was the trend that the drifting away of SC voters might have affected the fortune of BJP candidates in general category also, who lost by a narrow margin. This time BJP has lost 11 seats by a margin of less than 3000 votes.

URBAN SEATS

The retention of hold over the urban area has helped BJP survive. In effect, it has nullified the impact and the so-called hold of Hardik Patel agitation on Surat and adjacent areas.

ANTI- INCUMBENCY AT CONSTITUENCY LEVEL

One of the less highlighted facts of the results is the heavy exchange of seats between Congress and BJP. BJP lost 33 seats to Congress from their 2012 tally. In spite of a significant increase in the tally, Congress lost 18 of its 2012 seats to BJP. The comparison map of constituency-wise results shows the interexchange as well as the rural-urban difference in Gujarat. BJP retained about 75 MLAs of 2012 in 2017 while Congress continued only 24 MLAs. 20 BJP MLAs lost their seat while 8 Congress MLAs of 2012 were the losers. Together almost 1/3 MLAs of 2012 were defeated in 2017 indicating a strong local anti-incumbency factor.

People have a message for everyone

BJP has achieved a miracle in last 3-4 years in Indian politics. The change in opposition cry “They cannot win by doing Hindu politics” to “They win because of Hindu politics” indicates a major shift in Indian political scenario. But perhaps this election is the first signal that they will have to listen to the voice of every segment of Hindu society. The voice which expresses the aspirations of people and reactions to the massive changes which the Modi Government is bringing in all fields of governance which of course includes the introduction of GST needs to be heard. The shift of SC ST vote, the party presence which diminishes as we go from urban to rural areas, as was shown in recent UP local body elections also, needs to be addressed seriously if the winning trend is to be converted into enduring success. All these takeaway to become more significant considering next year’s election schedule where more BJP ruled states are in the queue.